For a swimmer as good as Leon Marchand, predictions are always going to be part of the game. And he gave swimfandom a bit of a gift this season by taking on a new event at the Pac-12 and NCAA Championships: the 500 yard freestyle.
His 4:06.18 at the Pac-12 Championships is the fastest swim in history, beating out Kieran Smith’s 4:06.32 from the 2021 SEC Championships as the best ever. While history hasn’t historically been kind at NCAAs to the best 500 freestylers (only one of the last six US Open Records in the event, dating back to 2008, has been done at NCAAs), the general consensus is that Leon has a time-drop left in him in two weeks in Indianapolis.
The opinions on what he will go in March have been wide, from a modest drop to 4:05 all the way to the most radical prediction that has gained any traction, a 3:59 (which seems like maybe wishful thinking, but Leon has done the ridiculous before).
Most of the guesses thrown out are just that – a guess, bordering on a hope.
But one guess that carries a little more weight might be that of American swimmer Zane Grothe, a former record-holder in this event.
At the 2017 Winter National Championships, Grothe swam 4:07.25 in the 500 free, which knocked 1.17 seconds off Clark Smith’s previous record in the event done nine months earlier. As Grothe points out in his thread, it took 22 years to go from a 4:08 to a 4:07, and while I don’t think anybody would confuse Grothe for Marchand on a holistic level, Grothe is a record-setting swimmer who, in this event specifically, broke a flood gate open.
In a thread on X (formerly known as Twitter), Grothe says that he believes that Leon can go a 4:02 in the 500 free at his best, and “more conservatively” at 4:04.
Across 26 posts, Grothe lays out his argument for why he says 4:02 is possible, and 4:04 more realistic. It’s based on his opening and closing 200 splits from different 500 frees combined with his best-ever 200 free (a 1:28.42 relay split at NCAAs last year).
Grothe also points out that up to this point, nobody has gone under 50 seconds on all five 100 yard splits in the 500 – 5×50 adds to a 4:10).
Grothe thinks Marchand will do this, listing his predicted splits of 46.50/49.25/49.75/49.75/49.25. That would add to 4:04.50.
His ‘best scenario’ list is 46.25/49.25/49.70/49.30/48.30 for a 4:02.80.
See Grothe lay out his analysis in the thread below (click to read replies).
I predict (at best) Leon can go a 4:02 in the 500. Here's why: (A thread)
Starting with my journey, personal experience, and analysis of the 500 yard freestyle:
— Zane Grothe (@zane_growth_ee) March 12, 2024
US Open Record Progression, 500 Yard Freestyle
| RANK | EVENT | TIME | ATHLETE | MEET NAME | SWIM DATE |
LOCATION CITY |
| 1 | 500 FR SCY | 4:06.18 | Leon Marchand | 2024 Men’s PAC 12 Championships | 3/7/2024 | Federal Way, Washington |
| 2 | 500 FR SCY | 4:06.32 | Kieran Smith | 2021 Men’s SEC Swimming & Divi | 2/24/2021 | Columbia, Missouri |
| 2 | 500 FR SCY | 4:06.32 | Kieran Smith | 2020 SEC Champs | 2/19/2020 | Auburn, Alabama |
| 4 | 500 FR SCY | 4:07.25 | Zane Grothe | 2017 Winter Nationals | 11/30/2017 | Columbus, Ohio |
| 5 | 500 FR SCY | 4:08.42 | Clark Smith | 2017 NCAA DI – Men | 3/23/2017 | Indianapolis, Indiana |
| 6 | 500 FR SCY | 4:08.54 | Peter Vanderkaay | 2008 MI OLY Michigan Open | 2/8/2008 | Rochester, Michigan |
Zane’s on the right track, but it’s time to start thinking under 4 minutes…just 4/10 faster per 100! 8/10 of 1% faster overall by effort. Marchand may even be the guy if someone can push him hard enough. If you have any doubt try reading The Perfect Mile about Roger Bannister running the first 4 minute mile in 1954 (a great book on its own, by the way. Kind of amazing in that Bannister was in med school at the time and could only train 45 mins most days).
oh ya loogit that he got that right huh
here after leon went a 4:02.31💀💀
Leon beat Grothe’s “best scenario” by a half second!
Came back here after Leon goes 4:02 😭
real
When it comes to the legends like Phelps, Dressel, Ledecky, Marchand, etc, the predictions are mountain high.
Who knows, he makes it hard to guess, but consider this: he has tons of speed (40.92 on the 100), has unbelievable underwaters, and plenty of stamina being the best in the world at 400 IM long course.
I have no idea what he will do, but won’t be surprised If he goes 4.05 flat or 4.03.50.
I’m no fun but I think he “only” goes 4:05-low
4:03.84 tie Phelps old 400 Im record lcm