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2020 TOKYO SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES
- When: Pool swimming: Saturday, July 24 – Sunday, August 1, 2021
- Open Water swimming: Wednesday, August 4 – Thursday, August 5, 2021
- Where: Olympic Aquatics Centre / Tokyo, Japan
- Heats: 7 PM / Semifinals & Finals: 10:30 AM (Local time)
- Full aquatics schedule
- SwimSwam Event Previews
- Start Lists & Results
WOMEN’S 200 FREESTYLE
- World Record: Federica Pellegrini (ITA) – 1:52.98 (2009)
- Olympic Record: Allison Schmitt (USA) – 1:53.61 (2012)
- World Junior Record: Yang Junxuan (CHN) – 1:55.43 (2019)
- 2016 Olympic Champion: Katie Ledecky (USA) – 1:53.73
The story of the women’s 200 freestyle in the five years since Rio has been the unbelievable longevity and staying power of Federica Pellegrini, who turned back the clock and upset the likes of Katie Ledecky (2017) and Ariarne Titmus (2019) to win back-to-back World Championship titles in the event.
Pellegrini’s career in the 200 free is one of legend, having won a medal in the event at a staggering eight consecutive World Championships, but closing out her career with a second Olympic gold now seems to be far out of reach.
This isn’t because Pellegrini is incapable of a medal-worthy swim, but simply due to the excellence shown by Titmus last month at the Australian Olympic Trials.
TITMUS ON TOP
Titmus, 12 years Pellegrini’s junior at 20, produced an unbelievable time of 1:53.09 in June, ranking second all-time behind Pellegrini’s super-suited world record of 1:52.98 from 2009.
That swim from Titmus blew her previous best time out of the water, a 1:54.27 done on the lead-off leg of Australia’s 800 free relay at those 2019 Worlds, and came shortly after she had a similar performance in the 400 free (putting up the #2 time in history at 3:56.90).
In what was projected to be a battle between Ledecky, the defending Olympic champion, and Titmus, the race now appears to be for silver with the Aussie well out ahead of the pack. Behind Titmus’ 1:53.09, the next-fastest swim since the beginning of 2019 is Pellegrini’s 1:54.22 from Gwangju. Ledecky’s fastest in that time is 1:54.40, done earlier this year, while her only sub-1:54 was done in the Rio final five years ago.
MEDAL CONTENDERS
Katie Ledecky (photo: Jack Spitser)
Ledecky certainly hasn’t been at her best this year, but the 200 is where she’s shown the most promise, with that 1:54.40 from April her fastest outside of that Olympic-winning swim.
Joining her in the medal hunt will be Pellegrini, who has proven time and time again that she can’t be counted out. But the 32-year-old was planning to retire after the Games in 2020, and was upset she would have to swim another year due to the postponement. Has that hindered her training coming in? Her fastest time in 2021 is 1:56.23, so she’ll need to be at least a second better to have a shot at the podium.
China’s Yang Junxuan is on the rise, lowering the World Junior Record at the 2019 Worlds in 1:55.43 to place fifth and then dropping a new Asian Record of 1:54.57 in April.
Siobhan Haughey (photo: Mike Lewis)
The only other swimmer in the field that has been sub-1:55 in 2021 is Hong Kong’s Siobhan Haughey, who has now dipped into the 1:54s once in each of the last three years. Haughey went 1:54.44 last August (a time trial in Hong Kong, so it was never ratified as an official Asian Record) and followed up with a 1:54.89 this past April.
After a standout short course season in the International Swimming League, Haughey has the rare combination of speed and endurance to consistently be among the best in the world in this event.
Emma McKeon, the 2016 Olympic bronze medalist and third-fastest swimmer in the world this year, dropped this event from her busy program in Tokyo, giving fellow Aussie Madi Wilson a spot in the individual race.
Wilson immediately moved into the final conversation with McKeon’s withdrawal, ranking sixth in the world this year with a best of 1:55.68 from the Australian Trials.
OTHERS IN THE MIX
Beyond the names already mentioned, 2012 Olympic gold medalist Allison Schmitt headlines the rest of the field, having made her fourth U.S. Olympic team last month by placing second to Ledecky in Omaha.
Like Pellegrini, Schmitt’s fastest days are behind her, but she remains an elite 200 freestyler with a shot to make the Olympic final once again. Now 31, Schmitt was 1:56.01 in January 2020 prior to the pandemic, and was 1:56.79 at Trials. She’ll probably need to be closer to her time from last year for a top-eight finish.
Summer McIntosh. Photo: Swimming Canada/Scott Grant
Then there’s the Canadian duo of Penny Oleksiak and Summer McIntosh—the teenage star of the 2016 Games and another potential one here in 2021.
Oleksiak was sixth in this event at the 2019 World Championships, clocking 1:56.41, to book her ticket to Tokyo prior to the Canadian Olympic Trials. Then at those Trials, McIntosh, 14, dropped a 1:56.19 to top Oleksiak head-to-head in what was the fastest 15 & under swim of all-time.
Oleksiak is probably more of a favorite to medal in the 100 free, and McIntosh will also feature prominently in the 400 and 800 free, but both are in the hunt for a finals berth here in the 200.
Freya Anderson (photo: Mike Lewis)
Great Britain’s Freya Anderson is another contender to make the final in Tokyo, though like Oleksiak, her best event is probably the 100. Anderson swam a best time of 1:56.06 in early 2020, and snagged bronze at the European Championships in May in 1:56.42.
The 20-year-old has been known to come on strong over the last 50 in this race, and also has a lot of natural speed. If she’s able to put the two together it’s easy to imagine her hitting 1:55.
Czech Republic’s Barbora Seemanova actually won that Euro title in 1:56.27, her career-best, while France’s Charlotte Bonnet was fourth (1:56.55). Bonnet was an Olympic finalist in 2016, and broke through with a 1:54.9 to win the 2018 Europeans, but hasn’t reached that form recently.
China’s Li Bingjie and Germany’s Isabel Gose are a few other names to keep an eye on.
TOP 8 PREDICTIONS
| Place | Swimmer | Country | Best Time Since 2016 Olympics |
| 1 | Ariarne Titmus | Australia | 1:53.09 |
| 2 | Katie Ledecky | United States | 1:54.40 |
| 3 | Siobhan Haughey | Hong Kong | 1:54.44 |
| 4 | Yang Junxuan | China | 1:54.57 |
| 5 | Madi Wilson | Australia | 1:55.68 |
| 6 | Federica Pellegrini | Italy | 1:54.22 |
| 7 | Summer McIntosh | Canada | 1:56.19 |
| 8 | Freya Anderson | Great Britain | 1:56.06 |
Dark Horse: Erika Fairweather, New Zealand – Fairweather, the 2019 World Junior champion in this event, is still just 17, but comes in riding a ton of momentum. After winning that title in Budapest two years ago in 1:57.96, Fairweather re-lowered her best time down to 1:57.58 in April, and also has some senior international experience under her belt, having placed 19th in the event at the 2019 Worlds.
Titmus the favourite. Ledecky will be lucky to medal.
Just hoping Yang Junxuan doesn’t crack out some unbelievable (and I mean that literally) 1-52 out of nowhere.
Brisbane to host 2032……whata a lift for the Aussies on the eve of these games.
Game on.
I definitely think Titmus has too much speed for this field but I checked my local betting agency and they’re offering $26 (+2600) odds on Haughey which seemed to good to not throw a few dollars on
So no one has money on Fede? She will prove you wrong – once again, as she always did. I predict a bronze medal für her – at least.
I REALLY want Fed to medal. I don’t care the color.
The 1:53.09 result of Titmus requires serious analysis, because it came absolutely unexpectedly. Nobody of those who finished 200 race under 1:56, never has swum last fifty meters that fast. Neither in textile suites nor in high-performance suits. 28.45!! . Is her middle name Shiwen?
At her best previous best results 1:54.30 and 1:54.27 she finished with the 29.02 and 29.26 respectively.
The first 150 m were actually slower than the pace of Schmitt and Ledecky and then Boooom!! such a finish that nothing close has been observed in the history of her races. That made definitely both Pellegrini and Ye jealous.
Such splits are raising an interesting question. If she had so much resources left after… Read more »
Has it surprised anybody that Katie Ledecky didn’t beat Cate Campbell or Sarah Sjostrom at 100FR event? No. She is the outstanding long distance swimmer and even though she showed the miracle of versatility making 52.6 sec in relay the sprint competition is not her field. But what about 200FR. It is still considered a sprint and we see many sprinters challenging the champion title. More actually than any other type of swimmers.
Despite the fact that Ledecky has more than anybody else results in the list of 25 best performances the history of her relationship with this event is very rocky. In 2013 (WC Barcelona) when making world records in 1500 and 800 distances, breaking for the first… Read more »
At the beginning of this season it looked like the road for Ledecky’s Olympic gold medal at 200FR event was free of any obstacles. Ikee was seriously sick, Sjostrom broke her elbow, Titmus had issues with her shoulder, McKeon was busy with her sprint and fly events, Ruck was well out of her form. And the performance of aging Pellegrini was a big question mark. Only two Asian sprinters left who wouldn’t probably swim under 1:54.5.
Did I actually wanted such competition free situation for Ledecky at Olympic Games?
The immediate answer was “No”. Her legacy doesn’t need such a cheap medal. She came like a bright comet to the sky full of bright stars. She broke 14 world… Read more »
Titmus 1:53:0 came after being dragged out fast by Emma McKeon in the lane next to her, under WR pace, and then catching her after 125m. Who will pace her in Tokyo?
This comment should be near the top, not the bottom. I came here to post exactly the same thing. The only concern about Titmus is strategy. She didn’t seem to know when to go in 2019. Pelligrini got the jump on her and never relinquished it. The Australian trials were an absolutely ideal setup for Titmus because as you said she knew all she had to do was use McKeon like a pacer. It was obvious how fast she had to go the first 100 and then when to surge past McKeon. Titmus is rightfully the favorite but I think the degree of advantage over the field is a bit exaggerated based on how perfectly that 1:53:09 unfolded for her.
Same tactic as trials, stay with leaders till 70 metres to go, then take off, who else is coming home in 28.4 in a 200 free?
Sure I still see her winning but I can’t see her getting the WR which most are predicting
Very valid point, Titmus HAS managed to mangle a few 200 frees in the past and having McKeon act as the lure was pivotal to her 1.53.09. No one amongst the remaining 200 contenders are in McKeon’s league at 100; the nearest being Haughey, Wilson & Oleksiak (if she made the final) and I can’t really see anyone volunteering to play “rabbit” if they saw that.
Still think she’s a clear favourite but I’m certainly not seeing a new WR as any done deal.
Exactly and perfect races don’t happen very often. People think she could break the wr but it’s very possible she doesn’t have that kind of swim again
You could say the same about Dressel, he could not go under 47 again, that one in the WC final was his perfect race. Just as you see my statement as ridiculous, I see yours the same.
Lmfao no you can’t. Dressel has proven to improve almost every time he swims. Dressel is a completely different breed than any other swimmer out there. His 50 free 17.63 record could very well stand for as long as 50 years. He swam 46.9 after not quite hitting his taper on the first day on the relay in which he went 47.6. Dressel will be 46.6 at the slowest in Tokyo
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I’m simply saying that Titmus could have a similar trajectory to Pellegrini who didn’t really come close to her 1:52.9 world record again.
If you ignore the super suit era Pellegrini set her textile best in 2019 at 30 years old. Pretty good tragectory.
Plastic fantastics were banned after this.
1:54.22 in textile at 30 yo > 1:52.98 in super suit at 20 yo
She will probably have to pace herself
She will sit with the leaders & take off with 70 metres to go!!!!