The Top Storylines Headed Into The Paris Olympic Year — Men’s Edition

With the conclusion of the World Aquatics Cup, there are no more major long course international competitions left in 2023. This leaves us looking ahead to 2024, highlighted by none other than the Paris Olympic Games. In this article, we break down some of the biggest storylines in men’s swimming to look out for come time for the big show next summer.

Leon Marchand: A Hometown Hero?

Leon Marchand by Fabio Cetti

For France’s Leon Marchand, success at the Paris Games will mean more than just basking in the glory of gold medals.

Marchand, who is arguably one of the best male swimmers in the world, has just about everything that makes him the perfect poster athlete for Team France in Paris. He’s young, he’s a world record holder, and he’s got five World Championship gold medals, but most important are his ties to the most recognizable swimmer on the planet. Not only does he share Michael Phelps‘s head coach, Bob Bowman, but he was also the one to erase Phelps’s final and longest-lasting individual world record. And in less than a year, he’s going to be competing in front of a home country crowd at the biggest international sporting event in the world.

In other words, Marchand has the opportunity to become swimming’s biggest Olympic hometown hero since Ian Thorpe at the 2000 games. Sure there have been several swimmers that won gold at home Olympic games since 2000, but none of them had the same star power as Marchand and Thorpe did heading into an Olympic year. And as seen with Thorpe, reaching superstar status at a home Olympic Games can magnify a swimmer’s impact beyond the small bubble of swim fans, and influence the way the mainstream thinks about the sport.

The general public is already catching onto Marchand. He’s got deals with Louis Vuitton and Omega, received a shoutout from French soccer star Kylian Mbappe on Instagram, and had the 33rd most-viewed page on French Wikipedia during the month of July 2023. Now, all that is left to do for Marchand is to perform on the biggest stage when the entire world is watching.

Marchand, who has been building up stardom for the last two years, heads into his home Olympics as the heavy favorite to win the 400 IM, a gold medal contender in the 200 IM, and a potential upsetter of rivals like Qin Haiyang and Kristof Milak in the 200 breast and 200 fly respectively. And if all goes well for him, he could be the next swimmer to become a household name, at least in his own country.

Americans Looking Towards Their Youth

From 2017 to 2022, Caeleb Dressel was the face of American men’s swimming. So when he missed out on the 2023 World Championships, the American men suddenly looked vulnerable, inexperienced, and prone to falling behind the rest of the world.

The men’s side of the 2023 U.S. World Championships team consisted of 12 different swimmers who had never competed at a senior international meet, and there were concerns that these rookies wouldn’t be able to handle the pressure of the big stage. However, in a down year for the American men where they put up zero world-leading times and only two individual World Championship gold medals, it was those younger rookies that looked the most promising.

Yes, veterans like Ryan Murphy and Nic Fink, continue to be consistent. But they can’t be in top form forever, and eventually, the generation after them will have to take over. And that generation in question showed that they were ready for the challenge.

Thomas Heilman (photo: Jack Spitser)

Look to 16-year-old Thomas Heilman, who nearly medalled individually in his first-ever World Championships and became the fastest 18-and-under American of all time in the 200 fly. Or how about Cal teammates Jack Alexy and Dare Rose, who filled Dressel’s void by stepping up to medal individually in sprint freestyle and butterfly? Both Alexy and Rose are climbing up the all-time rankings in their primary individual events, and if they find a few more tenths in them to improve, they could be gold medal contenders.

It’s not just the rookies who competed at this past World Championships who have promise. For example, 17-year-old Maximus Williamson showed at World Juniors that he could be an Olympian next year by becoming the fastest 17-year-old 200 IMer in history and throwing down numerous 47-mid 100 free relay splits that could get him on a senior 400 free relay. What about 19-year-old Jonny Kulow, who came into 2023 with a best time of 50.39 in the 100 free but then went on to split 47.44 at the Pan American Games? Or Kaii Winkler, who became the youngest swimmer to ever break 49 seconds in the 100 free but never got to compete at a taper meet this year due to injury?

There are so many young American male swimmers who showed they have the potential to become stars on the world stage. Now, all they have to do is carry their momentum into Paris, take the next step, and try to defeat the big dogs.

Can China Keep The Momentum Rolling?

One of the biggest surprises of 2023 was the newfound success of the Chinese men. After not earning a single medal on the men’s side at the 2022 World Championships, China exploded in 2023, finishing off the year with seven World Championship medals and seven world-leading times.

Qin Haiyang by Fabio Cetti

Qin Haiyang, who broke the 200 breast world junior record in 2018 but failed to recapture the same success over the last five years, had a career resurgence to become arguably the top-performing male swimmer of 2023. He swept the breaststroke events at World Champs, broke the 200 breast world record, and went 57-point five times in the 100 breast this year when no other swimmer had broken 58. He’s been the king of consistency for the last four months, and now all that’s left for him to do is pull off a win one more time when it matters the most in Paris.

While Qin’s emergence had the biggest impact on swimming, he was just one success story out of many for China. 18-year-old Pan Zhanle built off of back-to-back fourth-place finishes at World Champs and went 46.97 in the 100 free at the Asian Games, and now suddenly he’s in a 100 free gold medal conversation that was once dominated by Dressel, David Popovici, and Kyle Chalmers. 30-year-old Wang Shun proved that age was just a number by becoming the fastest 200 IMer not named Michael Phelps or Ryan Lochte. Xu Jiayu went his fastest 100 back times since 2019. Sun Jiajun and Dong Zhihao also emerged onto the international scene in breaststroke. Wang Changhao dropped over a second in his 100 fly 4×100 medley relay split from Worlds to the Asian Games, which resulted in him, Qin, Pan, and Xu scaring the world record in the event.

The point being made here is that despite a lack of depth compared to countries like the United States, the Chinese men have got themselves a star-studded team—most of which seriously broke out this year. Yes, China’s situation was different from the rest of the world, as they were hosting an Asian Games competition that was just one step down from the Olympics in terms of importance. But if the Chinese can carry their momentum into Paris, they could be the top-performing nation in men’s swimming.

One side note is the return of Sun Yang, whose doping suspension is set to end in May 2024. Sun, the world record holder in the 1500 free, has been training during his suspension despite not having competed in an official competition since 2020. Whether his return will have any impact on China’s medal count is up to debate, especially since the Chinese Olympic trials are happening before his suspension is over, but it is certainly notable given that he was his country’s top swimmer for several years.

Men’s Distance Swimming Is In A Golden Era

Speaking of Sun, let’s talk about the men’s 800 and 1500 freestyle races, which could be the deepest and most competitive events at the Paris Games.

At the 2023 World Championships, swim fans were treated to nail-biter races in both of the men’s distance events. The men’s 800 free was a battle between Australia’s Sam Short and Germany’s Lukas Martens for the first 600 meters, before Short passed Martens and took complete control. However, Tunisia’s Ahmed Hafnaoui ran down Short on the final 50 to win gold, while American Bobby Finke and Ireland’s Daniel Wiffen passed Martens to kick him out of medal position. The result of that race was Hafnaoui, Short, Finke, and Wiffen becoming the third, fourth, seventh, and ninth-fastest performers in history, in addition to the Americas, Oceanic, and European records falling.

Men’s 1500 Free Podium, courtesy of Fabio Cetti

The 1500 free saw a little more separation between the top dogs and the rest of the field, but it was still an incredible race. Short was in the lead for the first 1050 meters, but Hafnaoui and Finke took over afterward. The rest of the race was a neck-and-neck battle between Hafnaoui and Finke, with the Tunisian touching ahead of the American for gold by a mere 0.05 seconds. In the end, the two swimmers became the second and third-fastest performers of all time, and both of them were nearly half a second off of Sun’s world record.

Because of how competitive the men’s distance races were in Fukuoka, we can only expect similarly competitive races in Paris. Finke, Hafnaoui, and Short will be the top contenders, but names like Wiffen and Martens shouldn’t be overlooked. And we haven’t even mentioned names like Ukraine’s Mykhailo Romanchuk, Germany’s Florian Wellbrock, and Italy’s Gregorio Paltrinieri, who were all medalists at the Tokyo Olympics but were off the podium in Fukuoka, or rising swimmers like 17-year-old Italian Lorenzo Galossi and Germany’s Sven Schwarz. Galossi notably broke the 800 free world junior record in 2022 but missed 2023 Worlds because he was recovering from mono, while Schwarz has been blocked from qualification to senior international meets due to Germany’s distance free depth but saw a major breakthrough at the 2023 U23 Champs.

Although the 800 and 1500 might be the longest races at the Paris Olympics, there’s a possibility that they could be the closest ones as well on the men’s side.

Dressel, Peaty, and Milak

America’s Caeleb Dressel, Great Britain’s Adam Peaty, and Hungary’s Kristof Milak, three of the top-performing male swimmers at the Tokyo Olympics, were absent from the 2023 World Championships. Now, heading into Paris, their status is in limbo.

Out of the aforementioned three swimmers, Milak has had the most success since Tokyo. And considering that he’s still young and unbeaten, there’s greater confidence in him to return to peak shape in Paris than there is for Peaty or Dressel. He broke the world record in the 200 fly in front of a home crowd at the 2022 World Championships, was also a world champion in the 100 fly, and showed off his versatility by going 47.47 in the 100 free to break the Hungarian record in the event. However, in 2023, he disappeared from the international scene.

In June 2023, Milak announced that he would withdraw from the 2023 World Championships, citing that he had hit rock bottom and wasn’t ready to compete both mentally and physically. He later entered in all three World Aquatics Cup stops just to withdraw from them all. All that we’ve seen from him in 2023 was a 1:52.58 200 fly in April that was just 0.15 seconds off of Marchand’s Worlds winning time, but other than that there’s been nothing.

Caeleb Dressel (photo: Jack Spitser)

Dressel’s situation has been one of the biggest conversations of this Olympic cycle. Dressel, who has been very vocal about his struggles with anxiety and mental health, withdrew from the 2022 World Championships before he could compete in the 100 fly, 100 free, and 50 free. He was completely out of the water from June 2022 to February 2023 and was clearly off-form at 2023 U.S. Nationals, failing to make the World Championships team for the first time since 2015. Now, Dressel is fully back in training and aiming to compete in Paris, but questions remain about whether he will be able to go back to the level he once was at.

Peaty was initially sidelined from the 2022 World Championships due to a foot injury, but he showed vulnerability at the 2022 Commonwealth Games when he finished off the podium in the 100 breast—suffering his first loss in the event since 2014. Then, in March 2023, he dropped out of the British Swimming Championships (a qualifying meet for Worlds) due to his struggles with mental health. He returned to competition at the World Aquatics Cup stops and set a respectable season-best of 59.25 in the 100 breast, but he hasn’t shown that he can regain his former dominance in the event yet.

Milak, Dressel, and Peaty were three swimmers who were once unbeatable in their main events—Milak in the 200 fly, Dressel in the sprint free and fly events, and Peaty in the 100 breast. Fans cling to their former dominance because it’s still strange to imagine a world without it, but will it actually show up in Paris?

While Qin hasn’t touched Peaty’s world record, he’s throwing down 57-point 100 breasts like it’s nothing and has swum faster than Peaty has in the last two years. If Milak isn’t at peak, he could be threatened by an improving Marchand or young risers like Canada’s Ilya Kharun, America’s Thomas Heilman, and Poland’s Krzysztof Chmielewski. Dressel still has to get over the hurdle of competing against a deep domestic field, alongside international rivals like a rejuvenated Cam McEvoy from Australia, France’s Maxime Grousset, Chalmers, Popovici, and Pan.

Paris will ultimately tell us whether there’s going to be an official change of the guards, or if Dressel, Peaty, and Milak can still cling to their streak of greatness.

What About Russia?

Russia is arguably one of the top-performing nations in the world for men’s swimming, and their absence or presence in Paris will be felt.

Kliment Kolesnikov by Giorgio Scala

Last year, Russia’s Kliment Kolesnikov posted times in the 50 and 100 back that would have won gold at the 2023 World Championships, with his 50 back time being a world record. Additionally, Kirill Prigoda and Ilya Borodin posted times in the 200 breast and 400 IM respectively that would have medalled at Worlds. However, none of these swimmers were eligible to compete at the 2022 and 2023 World Championships due to World Aquatics’ ban on Russian and Belarusian swimmers following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Up until recently, it seemed unlikely that Russian and Belarusian athletes would get a chance to compete in Paris. However, World Aquatics announced in September 2023 that they would approve of the participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes in international competitions if they competed as neutrals (with no relays). As neutrals, Russian and Belarusian athletes would have to hit qualifying times for World Aquatics events outside of Russia and Belarus and show no support for the war in Ukraine (which likely rules out the Olympic participation of Russia’s Evgeny Rylov, who received a now-ended nine-month suspension from World Aquatics for participating in a pro-war rally).

Now the IOC hasn’t officially said that Russian and Belarusian athletes would be able to compete in Paris, but World Aquatics’ decision certainly opens the door. If these athletes end up being allowed to race, it would change the landscape of men’s swimming completely, as Kolesnikov would suddenly become a top contender in the men’s backstroke races, while Prigoda, Borodin, and other Russians like Andrei Minakov and Peter Zhikharev could enter the medal conversation. Belarus’s Ilya Shymanovich, one of the world’s best breaststrokers who competed as a neutral at the Budapest stop of the World Aquatics Cup, will also be a factor.