Following our “The Trials That Would Have Been” series, where we predicted how the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials would’ve played out had the event not been cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic, this week will feature a similar series for the postponed Tokyo Olympic Games.
Pool swimming was set to kick off on the evening of July 25 local time, with finals contested the following morning. Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of Eastern time, so finals were slated to run from 9:30-11:20 pm EST. For the purpose of this exercise, each session will be published on the corresponding day those finals would’ve happened in the United States.
This will be a day-by-day trip into the hypothetical, analyzing the events that would have happened, and how they might’ve played out. Forgive me as I try to reel in my imagination and keep the times *somewhat* realistic. Feel free to add your own predictions, picks, humorous quips and more in the comments below!
It was a wild Day 2 in Tokyo as all the big stars came to play, and day three promises to be the same with four highly anticipated finals and three sets of semis.
DAY 3 FINALS
Men’s 200m Freestyle Final
It was a swim reminiscent of Yannick Agnel‘s in 2012, as Danas Rapsys obliterated the men’s 200 free field in 1:43.64, leading from start to finish. The performance was a redemption swim of sorts, as Rapsys had touched first in the final at the 2019 World Championships before being disqualified for a false start. He becomes the first swimmer to win multiple gold medals, relays included, at the Games.
In a wild scramble for the minor medals, Duncan Scott utilized his phenomenal closing speed to snag silver in 1:44.72, followed by Katsuhiro Matsumoto (1:44.86) who continues Japan’s successful run in the pool.
James Guy (1:44.94) and Clyde Lewis (1:45.10) finish fourth and fifth, while American teammates Andrew Seliskar and Blake Pieroni finish in a tie for sixth at 1:45.50.
PODIUM
- Danas Rapsys, LTU, 1:43.64
- Duncan Scott, GBR, 1:44.72
- Katsuhiro Matsumoto, JPN, 1:44.86
Women’s 100m Backstroke Final
After first setting the world record leading off the women’s medley relay at last summer’s World Championships, American phenom Regan Smith claims her first major international title in the women’s 100 back with Olympic gold. Smith lowers the all-time mark for a third time, ripping a 56.87.
In a close race for silver, Kylie Masse slipped under her Canadian Record in 58.08 with a powerful final 15 meters to edge out Australia’s Minna Atherton, who picks up the first Olympic medal of her career with bronze in 58.26. Taylor Ruck places fourth in 58.54, followed by Kathleen Baker (58.65) and Kaylee McKeown (58.80).
PODIUM
- Regan Smith, USA, 56.87 WR
- Kylie Masse, CAN, 58.08
- Minna Atherton, AUS, 58.26
Men’s 100m Backstroke Final
After dominating in Rio, Ryan Murphy had his position as the best male 100 backstroker on earth challenged. The former NCAA star was defeated in both 2017 and 2019, though he did put on a clinic at the 2018 Pan Pacs. The 25-year-old proved once again he performs when the pressure is highest, out-duelling China’s Xu Jiayu and Russia’s Evgeny Rylov for gold in the men’s 100 back.
Xu flipped in an absurdly fast 24.92, but Murphy soared home in 26.64 to clip him at the wall, 51.69 to 51.78. The swim lowers the world record set by Xu in the semis (51.82). Rylov, who hit 51.98 in the semis, records a 52.19 to win the bronze medal.
50 back world record holder Kliment Kolesnikov has the best 100 swim of his career to pick up fourth in 52.46, edging Australian Mitch Larkin (52.53) and American Matt Grevers (52.72).
PODIUM
- Ryan Murphy, USA, 51.69 WR
- Xu Jiayu, CHN, 51.78
- Evgeny Rylov, RUS, 52.19
Women’s 100m Breaststroke Final
After an intense pre-race staredown, Lilly King and Yuliya Efimova went head-to-head for the fourth consecutive time in a major international final. Never one to crack under pressure, King opens up fast — 29.69 — not far off her 50 world record. Efimova appears to be gaining ground through the 75, but King surges towards the end and defends the gold, clocking 1:03.96. The swim is a new world record for King, breaking her 1:04.13 from 2017 and the first-ever sub-1:04.
Efimova once again settles for silver behind King, finishing in 1:04.65. Italian youngster Benedetta Pilato rockets out on the first 50 from lane eight and turns second to King in 30.30. The 15-year-old holds off the field coming home to snag bronze in 1:05.61, just ahead of China’s Yu Jingyao (1:05.69). Martina Carraro makes it two Italians inside the top-five in 1:05.79. Rounding out the field are Annie Lazor (1:05.84), Reona Aoki (1:06.07) and Kelsey Wog (1:06.18).
PODIUM
- Lilly King, USA, 1:03.96 WR
- Yuliya Efimova, RUS, 1:04.65
- Benedetta Pilato, ITA, 1:05.61
Also On The Schedule
Women’s 200m Freestyle Semi-Finals
After qualifying sixth in the prelims, Siobhan Haughey unloads a major swim in the first semi-final of the women’s 200 free, touching in 1:54.68 to take out Ariarne Titmus (1:55.27), Federica Pellegrini (1:55.51) and Yang Junxuan (1:55.89). In heat two, top prelim qualifier Katie Ledecky and Canada’s Taylor Ruck finish in a dead-heat — 1:54.92 — to share the second seed for the final. Emma McKeon is a close third in 1:55.33. Simone Manuel rounds out the qualifiers in eighth (1:55.97).
Men’s 200m Butterfly Semi-Finals
Hungary’s Kristof Milak makes his first appearance in a finals session after cruising to a 1:54.33 in the prelims of the men’s 200 fly. The 2019 world champion and world record holder makes it look easy in the first semi, flying to a time of 1:52.26. 2016 Olympic silver and bronze medalists Masato Sakai (1:54.49) and Tamas Kenderesi (1:54.62) finish second and third in the heat. In semi 2, Daiya Seto backs up his 1:53.78 from the prelims in 1:52.65, signalling that, at the very least, Milak will need to be on point to win the final. U.S. junior star Luca Urlando rocks a 1:53.48 to take the #3 seed overall, while South Africa’s Chad Le Clos rebounds from missing the 200 free final with a solid 1:54.75 for sixth.
Women’s 200m Individual Medley Semi-Finals
Similar to what we saw at the 2019 World Championships, Katinka Hosszu shows off her breaststroking ability — often perceived as her weakest of the four strokes — in the semis of the women’s 200 IM, blasting the field’s top split in 36.60 to qualify first for the final in 2:07.57. Melanie Margalis of the U.S. qualifies second overall after winning the first semi in 2:08.43, while Rika Omoto (2:08.69), Sydney Pickrem (2:08.75), Ye Shiwen (2:09.05) and Siobhan-Marie O’Connor (2:09.39) follow.
I think it’s impossible to say Reagan Smith’s 56.87 seconds. I think around 57.50 seconds is realistic.
Absurdly fast times
I haven’t followed Kolesnikov too closely, but he seems like a major dark horse going into 2021. He was an absolute weapon in 2018, 24.00 50m back, 52.5 in the 100m back nad 48.00 in the 100m free. Not sure what happened to his development, but I feel like he could be a huge piece that helps russia test the USA in the relays.
Interesting side bar. Looked him up on google and he is listed at 6’6″ and 174 pounds. That would be shockingly thin.
M200FR: Can go along with your selections but, to be frank, this race is a lottery as regards times and who makes/misses finals.
M100BK: Agree with the composition of your podium but times and placings open to speculation
W100BK: A US/CAN/AUS podium sounds a fair bet but other than Smith; the composition/names looks open. Of the Canadians, Masse has the CV and constistent intl record whereas Ruck more the X factor. From AUS, McKeown was starting to make the 100 progress to match her 200 prowess but we had no LCM indicators whether Atherton’s record-breaking ISL SCM would carry over to her LCM. IF that were to be the case then Smith may well have a serious contender… Read more »
I don’t think Scott cracks 1:45 in the 200 free
Interesting call; What’s the thinking behind that? I can’t see him being slower than 2019 after the times he put up this winter (save for a missed taper or injury) and he already cracked 1.45 at Worlds.
I think Rylov sweeps the backstrokes unless Xu or Murphy have a disgusting surprise swim. He’s just been so good
What’s the fanfiction Olympic Medal Count by nation through Day 3?
Minna Atherton could unleash some smoke in Tokyo at the backstroke events in both the 100 and 200. Girl is improving fast.
Women’s 100 meter backstroke
Personal Bests
Atherton (DOB 17 May 2000) – 58.60
Bacon (DOB 12 Aug 2002) – 58.63
Women’s 100 meter backstroke
Calendar Year 2020 Best Times
Atherton (DOB 17 May 2000) – 59.90
Bacon (DOB 12 Aug 2002) – 58.86
Doesn’t this kind of gloss over the fact Atherton was ripping up ISL? It wasn’t a soft WR she smashed by any stretch.
If you based upon what individuals accomplished in short course, Beata Nelson would be the top American in the women’s 100 meter backstroke.
https://www.usaswimming.org/times/ncaa/ncaa-division-i
Minna Atherton went 58.6 last summer as a teenager. She also swam 59.5 as a 15 year old back in 2015, before losing her way for a few years. Nelson is clearly a better SC swimmer, I don’t think the same can be said for the improving Atherton.
2020 Top Performers – Women’s 100 BK LCM
Atherton (DOB 17 May 2000) – 59.90 03/13/2020
Bacon (DOB 12 Aug 2002) – 58.86 01/18/2020
59.90 is not improving and is a full second slower than Bacon who incidentally is two years younger than Atherton.
Yes, especially in the 100 back. minna atherton,s start speed was absolutely crazy at ISL. It was like watching dressel 2.0.
2019 FINA World Aquatics Championships
Women’s 4 x 100 meter medley relay
Lead-off Leg:
Smith – 57.57
Atherton – 59.06
Not even in the same area code.
The ISL was in november or so. She obviously improved over several months after the world championships.
That,s swimming for you. Huge improvements in a short period of time happen all the time.
Atherton’s time in the women’s 100 meter backstroke at the 2019 FINA World Aquatics Championships would not have even medaled at the 2016 Rio Olympics.
You really do not like Minna .
2020 Top Performers – Women’s 100 BK LCM
Smith (DOB 09 Feb 2002) – 58.18 03/07/2020
Baker (DOB 28 Feb 1997) – 58.56 03/07/2020
Bacon (DOB 12 Aug 2002) – 58.86 01/18/2020
Smoliga (DOB 12 Oct 1994) – 59.25 03/07/2020
Atherton (DOB 17 May 2000) – 59.90 03/13/2020
The Facts are The Facts.