After the record-setting year that was 2023, we’re gearing up for another exciting year over here at SwimSwam, and part of that is releasing our fourth annual Top 100 list—check out last year’s rankings here.
Similar to 2023, we’ve taken a statistically driven approach reliant primarily upon world rankings and World Championship medals. We’ve also taken into account things such as potential, Olympic medal opportunities, injuries, and versatility. Long course is weighted more than short course, though performance potential in both formats is factored in.
We’ve also moved Russian and Belarusian swimmers way down this list because of their likely absence from the Olympics or either World Championship meet. While that doesn’t preclude them from swimming fast at domestic meets (including whatever Russia comes up with to replace the Olympics), those swims just won’t mean quite as much without the international spotlight.
We’ll be breaking down the top 100 into multiple installments, so keep an eye out as they’re released.
These lists are, by nature, subjective. If you disagree, leave your thoughts/ranks in the comments.
Braden Keith, Sophie Kaufman, Anya Pelshaw and Mark Wild contributed to this report.
Women’s Rankings:
- #100 – #91
- #90 – #81
- #80 – 71
- #70 – 61
- #60 – 51
- #50 – #41
- #40 – #31
- #30 – #21
- #20 – #11
- #10 – #1
The end of this list is a mix of veterans still going strong and youth with a potential arrow pointing straight north. Australian Abbey Harkin is the front end of a run of breaststrokers in that 1:06 range – which is an area that is becoming increasingly-crowded headed into the Olympic year. More on that in the next installment. Few of these swimmers are likely to final in more than one event at the Olympic Games.
#100-91
#100: Wan Letian, China – Wan was the 2023 Asian Games Champion in the 100 back, but in context, Asia is not particularly strong in women’s backstrokes right now – she was 59.38 for that gold medal.
#99: Michelle Coleman, Sweden – The seemingly ageless Coleman, now 30, made her first World Championship final with a 53.41 showing in the 100 free in 2013. She was only 13th in the world rankings last year in that event, but time and again it’s been proven that this is an event that belongs to the swimmers who show up for the big meet, and she does that consistently. Hitting a new personal best in the 50 in SCM at the European Short Course Championships to win gold is a great launching-off point into the Olympic year.
#98: Ma Yonghui, China – A recurring theme here – a young Chinese swimmer who was great last year – at Chinese Nationals and the Asian Games. She swam 4:05 for silver at that meet, which would have missed the final at Worlds anyway, but overall she had big drops in 2023 in a bunch of races. It feels like she’s on the verge of something – including a possible 800 free relay gold medal.
#97: Arina Surkova, Russia – Surkova’s Russian Record in the 50 fly last year would have earned her a bronze medal in that event at the World Championships. With the Olympics looking unlikely, Surkova is currently in the prime of her swimming career.
#96: Lee Eunji, South Korea – The 17-year-old South Korean got better as 2023 wore on, peaking with five medals (including three individually) at the 2023 Asian Games. Her time from that meet would have been ninth at Worlds in the 200 back (as it was, she made the semis and placed 16th), and her trajectory is on a rapid ascent.
#95: Amelie Blocksidge, Great Britain – Blocksidge’s 2023 was a runaway freight train. In long course, she dropped 53 seconds in the 1500 free, and in short course, she very nearly broke a British Record. She’s still only 14, and is already moving into territory with some of the best distance swimmers as well. Does anybody else remember a 15 year old female having a breakout Olympic year in distance freestyle events?
#94: Liu Yaxin, China – Liu is another Chinese swimmer who was better at the Asian Games than the World Championships – but she took that to an extreme degree. At Worlds, she was 21st in prelims of the 200 back in 2:13.42, but at the Asian Games she was almost five seconds better, taking a silver medal in 2:08.90. She also made the final at Worlds in the 200 free. She could win a couple of relay medals and make a couple of individual finals in Paris, if she is “Asian Games” Liu. With enough scratches, an individual 200 free medal isn’t out of the question.
#93: Isabelle Stadden, USA – Stadden’s best event is the 200 backstroke by most measures, except for one big one: she’s the #5 ranked American in the 100 back in the Olympic Trials qualifying period, and only sixth in the 200 back. This has been over a decade of American women’s backstroking, where they seem to always reload with new, young talent. From any other country, she’s an Olympic medal contender – her time from U.S. Nationals would have been only .95 shy of the podium at Worlds. In the U.S., she’s going to have to fight to make the team. The upside is that she’s training under a newly combined group led by arguably the most successful men’s backstroke coach in the world over the last 10 years or so, Dave Durden.
#92: Wang Yichun, China – In 2018, at only 13, Wang won silver at the Asian Games in the 50 fly. She didn’t do much in the following years, but in 2023, she began picking up steam again, winning two medals at the Asian Games and swimming a best time of 57.05 in the 100 fly at the Chinese Spring Championships. She’s had a career already at 18. Wang swam well at multiple meets last year, like many on the Chinese team, but now she’ll be counting on one big taper in 2024 to lift her up the table – she’s not part of the roster for the 2024 World Championships.
#91: Abbey Harkin, Australia – Harkin, 25, turned a corner in 2023 – and just in time for the Australians. With Chelsea Hodges out of the World Championships with an injury that required surgery, Harkin was the only Australian woman breaststroker at the World Championships, and that earned her a silver medal in the 400 medley relay. She also made an individual final, placing 7th in the 200 breast. Whether Hodges gets back to where she was remains to be seen, but either way, Harkin is in position for a relay medal, at least, in Paris.
I’m wondering if and where Olivia Wunsch, 5 time gold medallist from World Junior Championships, might appear on this list.
Wunsch swam 53.71 to win the 100 Free at World Juniors but seemed to get faster as the meet went on with relay splits of 52.61 and 52.73. Those splits would have put her as 2nd fastest in the USA’s Fukuoka 4×100 Free relay team. She also swam a 24.59 Championship Record in the 50 Free & took bronze in 50 Fly.
Wunsch would have to survive the Aussie Olympic Trials 100 Freestyle “bloodbath” to even get a relay spot so I guess that might count against her. Will be interesting to see if her name pops up on the list somewhere.
She’s not in 90-100, doubt she’ll be in the list.
MOC who had won 2 Olympics gold and set WJR was ranked very lowly, well below SCY specialists, in 2022 edition.
Yes its looking like Wunsch will probably miss out. She wasn’t named on the 81-90 list either.
They must think she’ll miss the Olympic team because if she makes the team she very likely wins a gold medal which should be enough to make this list.
This is going to be a very long and tiresome year on SS.
That’s a glass half-empty take. I hope it is a long and very interesting year on SS.
Nah it’s fun! Embrace the drama! The insufferability will come after Paris. You know I’m going to be insufferable if Kaylee does the double double, and I know there are dozens out there just waiting to be insufferable if their fav does well
The insufferability is already too damn high.
Doha cannot come soon enough.
I’d like to see a series of articles on whoever came in at 101.
Top 200 for 2024??
Yes please 😁
What do you even say once you get to 200? “This swimmer might make top 6 in the 200 free at trials and therefore might swim a relay heat” lol
Objectively Liu Yaxin is probably a bit underranked. She could final in 2free and 2back and is a strong medal chance in the 2free relay.
I feel like the further away from the top you are, the more subjective it can be.
If someone has potential to make three finals but not medal, is that better than someone who won’t make any finals but is almost guaranteed a spot on a relay that will very likely win a medal? If someone has a time that would definitely make a final but because they’re from a competitive country they might not even make the team, how do you compare that to someone with a slower time but who is more likely to make their team? It’s hard.
I will be honest and say I have very little knowledge of swimmers who aren’t in realistic medal contention.
Totally agree that yeah it’s much more “fun” learning about the medal contenders, and I prob know much more about medal contenders than non-medal contenders. However, I absolutely love learning about every swimmer who’s in a lane at worlds or olympics, it’s interesting.
And I don’t disagree about the subjective nature of this, esp at lower rankings. On the topic of coming from a competitive country, my view is that it absolutely has to be taken into consideration, meaning yes if you have to fight harder to make the team, that automatically makes you weaker from a ranking standpoint. The 12th place ladies 10m platform diver at Chinese trials probably beats every olympic finalist other than their compatriots, but… Read more »
This got me thinking because at first I thought you were right, but then I wondered how rare is making the finals in an event. So I did some mental math.
There are 14 individual events. That’s a potential of 42 medalists and 112 finalists. There are 3 relays of all women and 2 relays of half women, so essentially 4 relays, which is a potential 48 medalists (with 48 more if you have all different prelim and finals swimmers) and 128 finalists. So there will be at least 90 medals handed out and 240 finalists.
If Olympic performance is the major factor in the rankings making 2 individual finals and earning 1 relay medal should probably be… Read more »
I think she could reasonably be ranked 80s to 70s, and not above 71. My overall sentiment is that she is ranked lower than her potential. Her chance for a relay medal is very solid.
Agree there is a huge amount of subjectivity in this and none of this is really clear cut. I do however think individual gold should far surpass medals of other colors, and relay gold should have pretty heavy weight as well.
just some of my estimates that I wanna throw out there, based mostly on my own feelings and assuming McIntosh skips the 200 free:
400 free: 56% Titmus, 42% McIntosh, 2% other
200 free: 60% MOC, 35% Titmus, 5% Haughey
100 free: 47% MOC, 33% Haughey, 7.5% Sjostrom, 7.5% Jack, 5% other
100 back: 85% McKeown, 15% Smith
200 back: 80% McKeown, 20% Smith
200 IM: 40% McIntosh, 25/20/15% for Douglass/McKeown/Walsh
200 fly: 50% McIntosh, 30% Smith, 15% Zhang
100 breast: 35% Chikunova, no one else potentially top 10
200 breast: 65% Chikunova, 20% Douglass, 15% Schoenmaker
50 free: 65% Sjostrom, no one else potentially top 10
so for individual… Read more »
Your Chikunova guess is high by about .9 golds.
Assuming she competes, it isn’t. Assuming she doesn’t, she has no place on the list above at all.
If she does not compete (I hope she does not) but put world leading times in some local Russian + Belarussian meet she must be on the list. Being devoid of Olympic games should not erase her status as a top notch swimmer.
Fair. But I was referring specifically to OC’s own top 10 list, which in turn refers to Swimswam’s list, and that at least should prioritize swimmers who participate in Paris.
No.
If Chikunova swims, she’s a huge favorite in 200 breast.
No 100 fly or 400 IM?
i just gave McIntosh a 100% in the 400 IM so didn’t include it (800/1500 free to Ledecky too), ngl I kinda forgot about the 100 fly but I also kinda have no idea since the times this year were all pretty slow. I guess I’d go like 30-30-30 for Huske/MacNeil/Zhang so Zhang might be in the running for top 10 too
The only spanner in the works in regards to the accuracy of your 100m and 50m freestyle prognostications is how well Emma Mckeon is swimming at the time. The Aussie trials in June will provide a clearer picture of that.
I think I would have Sarah more at like 80%.
This is 100 fly.
Sarah hasn’t been swimming under 55s 100 fly in years.
No woman has swum under 55s in the 100 fly. I think you mean under 56s.
Yes I meant under 56s
Yufei swum 55.86 on Asian Games
That’s not under 55. The WR is 55.48, that is also not under 55.
the only place I ranked Sarah was in the 50 free, and yeah I can see 80% being there too. 65 was my gut feeling at first given she’s getting older but she did swim the 2 fastest times in history the past year so maybe 80% is better
Agreed. Sarah is 80% in 50 free.
Laughable. We going to get this for the next 9
Rounds?
Let’s see your ranking then
They did a ranking of who they think will be in the top 10, not the list on this article. So would be odd for them to just repeat their top 10 rankings every day.
I would put Elizabeth Dekkers in the same % as Regan Smith in the 200 Fly. Only 19, silver medalist in Fukuoka behind Summer and continues to show progression.
She keeps being forgotten when talking about medal contenders in the 2 fly.
Which works in her favor. Better be forgotten than being overrated and then disappoint.
Just a heads up, Stadden’s write up is missing an S in the first word.
Predicted top 5:
(I honestly don’t know who could be 5th, Titmus? KD? Regan Smith? Sjostrom (unlikely)?
McKeown set WRs in 3 different events last year, which is a compelling argument for #1 (along with her many other #10 all-time swims), but is not quite as versatile as McIntosh.
Olympics:
Likely 200 and 100 BK Gold, possible 200 IM medal, likely 400 IM medal (if she swims)
vs
Likely 400 IM and 200 FL Gold, almost guaranteed 200 IM medal (and good chance of gold), likely 400 FR medal
Plus who knows what McIntosh will drop in events like 200 FR, 200 BK etc.
I’m not really sure who should be #1 so I won’t really be disappointed either way
The versatility is what put Summer above Kaylee for me. Summer could compete for a 2 back medal if she prioritized it. Don’t get me wrong, Kaylee is amazing, but I think Summer with her insane versatility gets that top spot.
Sounds like Leon.
the 50 back not being an Olympic event probably means that it has a very minor effect on this year’s rankings
McKeown’s already said that she doesn’t intend to swim the 400 IM internationally but I guess she could change her mind.
Kaylee’s 50 back is not an Olympic event.
I think the order is correct.
1. McIntosh
2. McKeown
3. MOC
4. Ledecky
Yes, it’s pretty much a lineball call.
If the question was “who was the no1 female swimmer for 2023 ?” then it realistically has to come down in favour of McKeown on the grounds of the 3 LCM WRs plus the backstroke sweep at Worlds but that is not necessarily the sole defining factor for this ranking.
Making the call on which of the 2 has the highest actual “market value”; particularly with regards likely (as against notional) Paris “swags” …… glad it’s not me playing judge ! Either of them would be a very defensible selection.
Good 4! douglass or smith would be the best to put next, they are the most likely of all of them at two golds (especially douglass), sarah without 50 fly only has one option (50 free), titmus also has only one after the existence of o ‘ callaghan or ledecky (400 free), ruta have only one category.
Douglass now positions herself better for the 200 breaststroke and 200 im, although it is also difficult.
1. Mcintosh
2. Mckeown
3. Moc
4. Ledecky
5. Douglass
6. Sjostrom
7. Titmus
8. Smith
9. Chikunova
10 ruta
11. Yufei
12. Siobhan
13. Steenbergen
I think you’re discounting some gold contenders here. Titmus was ranked 1-2 in her top 2 events and was less than 2 tenths off gold in the 200. Sjostrom is very likely to win the 50 free and was only a tenth off the gold winning time in the 100 free last year. Zhang Yufei is favourite for 100 fly and still has the fastest active PB in 200 fly. Chikunova, if she swims, would be heavy favourite in the 200 breast and a strong contender in the 100. Currently Douglass and Smith aren’t favourites for any gold medals so not sure why they’d be the next logical choice.
Largely concur. No issues with the top 4 but it gets very fluid from there on down.
Agree that Douglass is at least a couple of places higher than her actual status/relative favouritism in her events justify. Top 10 is justifiable given her versatility but Titmus, Sarah, Chikunova (if eligible) have the actual higher ranks in their events. Would also arguably place Ruta & Yufei ahead of Smith for the same reasons; McKeown & McIntosh generally “had her number” when it counted in 2023.
Titmus/Sarah = either/or as to who to place higher.
Haughey = very much a real factor in 100fr; maybe needs a slightly slower race scenario for 200 but justifies a spot “thereabouts” the top 10-12.… Read more »
Sjostrom over Titmus?
How?
Sjostrom may win only 1 gold (50 free)
Titmus has a chance at 3 gold (200 free, 400 free, 4×200)
Yeah top 2 could go either way but I guess Summer theoretically has a higher ceiling so I can see it going this way.
Ledecky is too high. top 10 yes, top 5 no
Here I was thinking MOC and Ledecky should be swapped because Ledecly has two golds locked and also has a third event while there’s much more uncertainty for MOC because her events are so stacked right now.
I’m with you. Ledecky will get 2 gold and almost assured of a third medal
MOC is also guaranteed gold in 4×200
Relays golds shouldn’t be weighted the same as individual.
True. But it still counts.
Emma McKeon was declared the female swimmer of Tokyo Olympics and best female swimmer of 2021 based on her overall medal, including relay gold.
Maybe they could reduce the gold content. Would that help?
It’s recycled gold at that. Gross.
This is what they said before Tokyo, so maybe let’s not speak in absolutes about the Aussie women’s 4×200 lol
I think we always get too used to what Katie Ledecky does. Her accomplishments are almost superhuman. Yeah shes not going PBs but shes still throwing down top 10 best times EVER in her two best events, MILES ahead of anyone else. Having literally only yourself to beat in two races puts you top 5.
Ledecky is guaranteed 2 gold (800 and 1500).
She’s in top 5.
Unfortunately, people forget how good Ledecky is. Her own great times are weighing her down.
Imagine if there was no Ledecky prior to 2022. This new Ledecky (post 2022) would be a world record holder & strongest of favourites for Paris in the 800 & 1500 free & a very strong medal chance in the 400.
She would be right near the top.
Part of how easy it is to underrate Ledecky for me is how similar the 800 and 1500 “feel.”
This is only the second time both are Olympic events!
Some veterans and newcomers on the list but the one that stands out to me is Amelie Blocksidge of GB. Showed some amazing results last year at such a young age. Anytime you see results that are better or similar to Katie Ledecky and Summer McIntosh at the same age makes you sit up and take notice. Will Amelie make the GB Olympic team for Paris?
“Will Amelie make the GB Olympic team for Paris?”
ABSOLUTELY
She is helped significantly by the qualification criteria for British team being pretty different to recent years
She “only” needs to win the 1500m and hit the World Aquatics time of 16:01.95. Her short course times suggest she doesn’t need much more of a drop to hit that time