SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers whether Caeleb Dressel would make the U.S. Olympic team in the 200 free:
RESULTS
Question: Will Caeleb Dressel make the U.S. Olympic Team in the 200 free?
- Yes, as a relay swimmer (3rd-6th) – 75.8%
- Yes, as an individual (Top 2) – 16.8%
- No – 7.4%
More than three-quarters of voters predicted that Dressel would make the Olympic team as a 4×200 free relay swimmer, with 16.8% more picking Dressel to make the individual 200 free.
That leaves just 7.4% of voters predicting Dressel to avoid the Olympic 200 free entirely. Dressel confirmed earlier this month that he was planning to swim the 200 free at U.S. Olympic Trials, but he could still scratch the race, or swim a one-and-done prelims race, just to get a time for relay consideration.
Dressel should have a very busy Olympic Trials lineup. He’s the favorite to make the Olympic team in the 50 free, 100 free, and 100 fly, events in which he is the defending world champion. He’s the world record-holder in the butterfly and just inches away in both freestyles.
Adding the 4×100 medley relay, 4×100 free relay, and mixed 4×100 medley relay to the mix, Dressel should have six strong Olympic events. Adding the 4×200 free relay could bring him to seven, and the individual 200 free would hit eight. That’s a bit of a magic number, made so by Michael Phelps‘ legendary showings at the 2004 Athens Olympics (then a record 8 medals in a single Games) and 2008 Beijing Olympics (a record 8 gold medals in a single Games).
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks voters for the best description of the #1 pick in this summer’s ISL draft:
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Hoffer will be ISL first draft pick
Could he -yes. Should he – ehh that’s a different question.
You didn’t really leave an option for prelims -> relay consideration. I would say thats not a “No” but also obviously not a 3-6 finish
If Dressel does finish 3-6 at Trials, what do people think the selectors do? Ask him to swim the relay prelims to earn his spot in finals as traditional? That gives him two extra races (both at the longer end of his range) on top of an already busy schedule. Or would the selectors back him to nail the final swim, and rest him for prelims? In that case, do they ask whoever comes second to swim prelims, or put in someone else who made the team in another event (maybe someone like Rooney, who could make the team in the 100 fly but finish outside the top 6 in the 200 free)? Would there be a risk of the… Read more »
First it would depend on how his meet is going. We’re expecting that he’ll be dynamite like he’s been at the past two Worlds, but what if he’s not? What if he’s having a good meet, but not a great meet? That complicates things and makes a prelim swim more necessary to earn it but also more problematic because of the potential for the extra race. He’s got a big program planned and he’ll be up against people that basically are swimming one event (Fratus, Flo in the 50, for example).
I guess this could kinda be like a Phelps 4×100 free scenario? Trust the big man to deliver in finals. The situations are kinda comparable in 2004 and 2016, when MP’s 100 free pedigree wasn’t so big.
I think US has such great depth in the 200 free that there’s almost no chance they miss the final.
I agree, though Dressel’s 200 free pedigree LC is less than Phelps’s 100 pedigree (even in 2004, 2016). Partly because he hasn’t swum a tapered 200 free for some time of course, but still: PB of 1:47.5 doesn’t quite scream “automatic relay final spot” to me. Hence why I think he’ll swim it in some shape or form at Trials (might go for it in prelims and then scratch for instance).
As for the US depth, maybe but I’m not sure it’s a guarantee. Let’s say Haas and Smith go 1-2 at Trials, with Dressel somewhere in 3-6 range. You could have Seliskar, Pieroni, Apple as the other 3 in that range: do those three + Rooney (for argument’s sake)… Read more »
The selectors, aka the coaches, can use whomever they want in prelims or finals at the Olympics as long as every relay-only swimmer has swum an event. They tend to respect the order people finish at trials, but not always.
In 2016, they placed Dana Vollmer automatically in finals of the 400 free relay with Weitzeil & Manuel despite Vollmer being 6th at trials. And then for the 800 they wisely put Missy in prelims and bumped up Leah Smith to the final swim despite her placing 3rd at trials.
They also had Phelps on the finals relay of the 400 free relay even though he didn’t even swim it at Trials. Even if Dressel doesn’t swim the 200 free at Trials, I think there’s a decent chance he’s on the finals relay
Yes there’s definitely plenty of precedent there for US doing this, though I thought Phelps time-trialled a 100 free at Trials in 2016 to put himself in consideration? Could be mis-remembering mind.
There was also the 4×200 free at 2017 Worlds where they changed three of the swimmers for the final: Haas and Pieroni were brought in, as was always going to happen (top 2 at Trials), but they brought in Conger too, who IIRC didn’t even make the final at Trials. This was after a dodgy heat swim (qualified 7th), and Conger had a better PB than the prelim swimmers. He repaid the faith in the final too, split 1:45.7 or something I think.
Dressel’s current PB in… Read more »
Yeah, with a PB of 1:47.5, really hard to justify giving him an automatic spot in finals at the Olympics.
If he was to swim a prelim/semi time at Trials in 1:46.0 territory, that would make it a lot easier to justify putting him in.
Hold up USA can at least muster a 7:00 performance which ought to put them in the thick of things.
The way i see it we have 5 swimmers that can hit 1:45 low in a relay situation.
Dressel- 1:45.0
Seliskar- 1:45.0
kieren smith – 1:45.0
Blake Pieroni- 1:45.0
Townley Haas- 1:45.0
Lmao, sorry but no.
Someone has to lead off.
If Dressel is on our 800 Free Relay, we are screwed. We need the big hitters who train for it to step it up… Farris, Pieroni, Haas, KSmith, Seliskar, Apple… I’m not slamming or doubting Dressel can go fast, but I don’t think he’s ready to go 144 low. And that’s what we need.
I’d love him to to drop a 1.44 and shake things up, and ultimately that’s what the US need. I think the four fastest American swimmers since Jan 2019 combine for a 7.04mid. Top 4 Russians at their trials were 7.02low, and top four Brits were 7.00high.
I think America needs the magic of dressel to get the podium.
At the time of selection, Russia and the UK are already fast enough to challenge the world record. But I also want Dressel to focus on other events without swimming in the 200m freestyle.
Points to be worried about!