SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers what category the #1 pick in the 2021 ISL draft will fall into:
RESULTS
Question: The #1 pick in the ISL draft will be…
- An NCAA graduate – 61.7%
- An ISL veteran who was not retained – 29.2%
- Someone else – 9.0%
61.7% of voters predicted that the top pick in the first-ever ISL Draft will be an NCAA graduate moving on to the professional swimming league.
The International Swimming League will hold a swimmer draft for the first time in league history this year, setting up a new roster-building model for Season 3 and beyond. In the past, teams have signed swimmers in what was essentially a free-agent market, with some brief periods of geographically-oriented exclusive recruiting.
An NCAA grad is probably a good bet to go #1 overall. The ten current ISL franchises will each be able to retain up to 16 swimmers from their 2021 rosters – that’s about half of their existing teams. That means most of the top-scoring ISL veterans should be retained – though it’s possible some swimmers push to hit the draft pool if they’re unhappy with their current franchise.
A few of the top 2021 NCAA seniors who could potentially join the ISL draft pool this spring and summer: Ryan Hoffer, Paige Madden, Brooke Forde, Nic Albiero, Evie Pfeifer, Trenton Julian, Javier Acevedo. One wrinkle to that list, though, is the NCAA’s offer of extra eligibility to athletes affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Most of those athletes would have the option of continuing to compete in the NCAA for one more season, taking them out of this year’s ISL draft pool.
The other wrinkle is how swimmer retention will work for 2020 ISL opt-outs. A number of top swimmers – including almost all the Australians in the league – signed with franchises for 2020, but did not ultimately compete amid travel difficulties and national policies that often restricted international travel.
There are some rumblings we’ve heard are that those swimmers – including Ariarne Titmus, Mitch Larking, Mallory Comerford, Emma McKeon, Cate Campbell, Minna Atherton, Kyle Chalmers, Ella Eastin, Madi Wilson, Kristof Milak, Daiya Seto and Kayla Sanchez – will not be eligible to be retained by their 2020 teams, with a few exceptions for athletes who were designated as “finals only” swimmers. That would be a major upset to the established draft pool, with proven ISL vets very likely overtaking NCAA-to-ISL rookies as the top values.
About 29.2% of voters expected an unretained veteran to go #1 overall in the draft. Even with that long list of opt-outs included in retained athletes, we projected a number of key scorers, including 100+ point-scorers Kirill Prigoda, Kelsi Dahlia, Christian Diener, Annie Lazor, Andreas Vazaios, Radoslaw Kawecki, Mikhail Vekovishchev, Vini Lanza and Allison Schmitt, as swimmers who could be on the bubble for either being retained or falling to the draft pool.
Only 9.0% of voters expected the #1 ISL pick to come from elsewhere other than those two categories. The best bet for that type of swimmer would be an established international star who hasn’t previously competed in the ISL but decides to join in 2021. That list would include someone like Simone Manuel, who hasn’t yet competed in the ISL, or swimmers like Xu Jiayu or Ye Shiwen from China, as China is one of the few swimming powers that remains unrepresented in the ISL.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks voters which new SEC coach will have the highest team finish at next year’s conference championships:
Loading ...
ABOUT A3 PERFORMANCE
The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner
Personally I feel like Hoffer is the only NCAA guy who can make a big impact in ISL this year
The caveat of Aussies signed last year not being able to be retained will be a huge factor. And a lot of this is obviously going to be dependant on who chooses to take part in the league. There’s no one who just came out of NCAA swimming more valuable to a team than Emma McKeon, Chalmers, C1, Atherton, or if Kaylee McKeown decides to throw her hat in the ring. All 5 of those Aussies could win theirtheir resprespective skins races as well. Manuel should get involved, given how good she was in yards, and post olympics takes away the out of saying you really need to focus on long course, but who knows with her.
If the Aussie’s (and other opt-outs) can’t be retained then that’s clearly going to help Energy Standard and hurt their chief European competition, London Roar.
On fine reading of the details, it *appears* as though each team will be able to choose from their roster of 36 athletes.
Each team only had 32 in the bubble, but each team was allowed to designated an extra 4 signees last season who were probably not going to be able to make it because of COVID, but if they were able to make it because of COVID, then they could swim. Those were the names that were a different color on the initial rosters.
So, London will be able to keep *some* of their Aussies, it appears.
If the 2020 opt-outs are not able to be retained, Emma McKeon is a big pickup. The way she’s swimming this season, I think she’d be ISL top 3 in the 100 fly, top 5 in the 100 and 200 frees, and top 10 in the 50s free and fly. She’ll be a big asset to any of the relay’s they’d put her on. I think this versatility makes her more valuable in the ISL format (to teams that don’t already have e.g. Sjöström) than maybe anyone else listed. She’s probably not quite Gastaldello level, but close.
…and she was 3rd place for MVP in the 2019 ISL.
Simone and Ledecky won’t have as many events (unless they pull surprises).… Read more »
It seems people are forgetting about the fact that the first pick of the draft is Aqua Centurions’. I think a European team is way more likely to pick a known international swimmer than someone from the NCAA.
Unless they are smart but who knows
Ryan Hoffer is built for this format though. Elite wall skills combined with top level times in 3 50s and 3 100s
How good is Hoffer in season? I remember him saying he was a big rest guy. ISL teams should definitely consider this when drafting swimmers. There’s a reason why you see in other sports such as the NBA “playoff” players such as Rajon Rondo on playoff contenders and not lower level teams. Being only able to perform at a high level in the playoffs is no use to a team that probably won’t make it.
Solution: Keep Hoffer semi-rested the entire season.
Really hope this is a joke or you are not very smart lmao
I think he said in a podcast with Coleman that he was working on improving his in-season performances. Probably realizes to be a player in the ISL you need to be able to swim lights out all the time
Seemed like he figured that bit out this year or so he was dropping 19 lows in briefs even in the spring of 2020. In ISL he can also swim only 50s if needed. His 100 is the even that seems to need more rest to come around.
He could swim 50 Free, 50 Fly, 50 Back and relays and still be a huge factor for whoever gets him.
Wow I didn’t even see that Geer had retired. Seems unusual to go straight to a power 5 head coach from professional swimming doesn’t it?
She swam pro for a couple years. Just didn’t make much of a splash since 2019 teams were selected so long ago and 2020 was 2020.
It’s gotta be Simone, Jiayu, or Ledecky. If Ledecky actually showed up to all the meets first season she would have been a huge asset for DC
If Ledecky or Manuel swims, it would make this choice very interesting. They would both be huge marketing assets for whichever team signs them.
But I’m not sure if Ledecky is more valuable than Ryan Hoffer, for example.
Aqua gets first pick. New GM, so hard to read exactly what they’ll do.
I would suspect that DC will take a female. Hard to see them passing on Ledecky if she’s there, their women have more needs than their men, and they’ve had a very “women-centric” vibe to their marketing, so hard to see them passing up either of those female superstars.
Breakers will be hoping both Ledecky and Simone join (though Simone hasn’t been involved so far – so who… Read more »
For what it’s worth, Brett Hawke said that Manuel wouldn’t do ISL on the social kick podcast