This morning, the NCAA released its pre-cut psych sheet for the 2019 men’s Division I NCAA Championships. We’ve already projected the cut lines, and you can view them here.
While no cut lines have been made official, we can still score out the psych sheet pretty reliably – the cut line usually falls somewhere around 30, meaning the top 16 seeds should be unaffected. Our resident numbers expert Andrew Mering has already tallied up the points, setting up the true Texas-Cal-Indiana showdown we’ve all been waiting for.
The big wrinkle not included in these projections is diving. Texas scored 81 diving points last year, and should return all 81 after their top three divers qualified for NCAAs yesterday. Indiana scored 98 diving points a year ago, but did graduate 36 of them with Michael Hixon. Cal didn’t score any dive points, but did have one diver qualify for the meet – he’s booked a repeat qualification this year.
The other factors are how much each team rested for their conference meet, whether athletes are seeded at fully rested times or mid-season times, and just how well each team traditionally shows up for NCAAs.
View the psych sheets themselves here
| Psych Points | Individual | Relay | Top 16 Ranked Individual Swims | |
| California | 402 | 256 | 146 | 21 |
| Indiana | 354 | 204 | 150 | 17 |
| Texas | 311 | 188 | 123 | 17 |
| NC State | 253 | 123 | 130 | 13 |
| Florida | 245 | 125 | 120 | 16 |
| Michigan | 234 | 164 | 70 | 13 |
| Alabama | 192.5 | 60.5 | 132 | 6 |
| Louisville | 189 | 66 | 123 | 9 |
| Missouri | 151.5 | 43.5 | 108 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 133 | 65 | 68 | 5 |
| Ohio St | 130 | 54 | 76 | 6 |
| Florida St | 111.5 | 29.5 | 82 | 4 |
| Virginia | 82 | 58 | 24 | 8 |
| Arizona | 81 | 57 | 24 | 6 |
| Southern Cali | 70 | 38 | 32 | 3 |
| Georgia | 66.5 | 66.5 | 0 | 7 |
| Minnesota | 65.5 | 59.5 | 6 | 4 |
| Texas A&M | 64 | 16 | 48 | 3 |
| Stanford | 60 | 42 | 18 | 8 |
| Arizona St | 52.5 | 36.5 | 16 | 4 |
| Harvard | 49 | 35 | 14 | 4 |
| Georgia Tech | 40 | 36 | 4 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 39 | 39 | 0 | 4 |
| Virginia Tech | 27 | 13 | 14 | 2 |
| Auburn | 24 | 17 | 7 | 2 |
| Grand Canyon | 19 | 17 | 2 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 17 | 17 | 0 | 2 |
| Wisconsin | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Towson | 14 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
| Penn | 13 | 13 | 0 | 2 |
| Purdue | 11 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Brigham Young | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| Utah | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Iowa | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Princeton | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Denver | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cal leads the way in both points and individual scoring swims, but Texas and IU should both make up serious ground on diving. Adding in returning diving points from last year would have IU winning by 14 over Cal, with Texas 10 points back of California.
Texas will also have to make some roster decisions. They’ve got 20 men invited, but the roster caps them at 18. Complicating matters is that the 20-person figure is swimmers only and doesn’t include their three divers. Since the divers are all returning scorers, it seems pretty likely all three will make the roster. Divers count as half an athlete towards the 18-person roster cap, so Texas will essentially have to cut four swimmers – leaving home four men who were invited to NCAAs, but can’t fit on Texas’s roster.
The lowest seeds of Texas’s invited swimmers are the following:
- Andrew Koustik, 28th, 200 fly
- JohnThomas Larson, 26th, 500 free
- Josh Artmann, 25th, 200 back
- Jack Collins, 24th, 1650 free
- Max Holter, 24th, 200 fly
- Jake Sannem, 21st, 200 free
i hope everyone has fun!
It looks like Stanford and USC and Georgia have lost their spots in the top 10.
What?? Make it through what?? and is “jigger” even a word that makes sense here??
So would the swimmers that get cut from the Texas scoring roster still be able to make the trip and swim exhibition for their races?
That would be awesome
Swammer – they would not. But, there’s no trip to make since it’s a home meet, so it’s probable that they’ll find their way onto deck regardless.
I hope not during the meet, because that would be a violation and could cost the team if they were caught. Afterwards to celebrate, should there be any celebration, sure that is fine… but not during the meet. That would be a no no.
Actually I am pretty sure the athletic department could send those kids to the meet (if it was away) on their dime if they wanted.
Can someone explain all the Texas downvotes on here? I’m genuinely curious. Is it because of all the diving points they score?
Same reason the New England Patriots, Bama Football, etc… would get downvotes. Some of us bring it on ourselves with our braggadocio.
At least this year and last year, it is competitive.
In 2016 and 2017, Texas literally would not have had to swim on the last day to win the championship. Even when moving swimmers up in the vacated spots of Horn finishers the last day, and not counting Horn points on the last day, they still would have won.
.
Pretty much nailed it. I don’t down vote the Texas stuff as I have no vitriol to aim at them, but I do hate me some Boston sports and Bama football, among a few other teams… I hate the Lakers, Knicks and Cowboys too, and they suck already.
It really is if Texas had no divers and instead those divers were on Cal, then it would be everyone hating on Cal so much instead.
Do relay only swimmers count in the 18?
Yes
Speed Racer – they do. But…if you qualify 20 for NCAAs and your relay swimmers aren’t in those 20 then lol you’ve got weird problems that nobody has sympathy for.
If divers are only counted as 1/2 a person, their points should also be cut in half. Or If they are considered a whole person as part of calculation for scholarships and team budgeting, then they should be counted as a whole person for ncaa invites.
Eh it makes sense to me. They can only compete in (less than) half as many events.
The justification is that they can’t score in relays, so in fact their points are kind of cut in half. I think half overvalues them, but…everyone plays by the same rules!
In that case teams should have to designate swimmers as relay or non relay and have them valued towards the cap accordingly.
You’re overthinking this. To Braden’s point, everyone plays by the same rules. More complicated is rarely better.
If simpler is better, it certainly would be simpler if divers counted as a full person towards an ncaa roster…
Swimmers can enter 8 events, divers can enter 3. Maybe we should add diving relays so they get an equal opportunity? The rules are the rules folks, get over it and play the strategy that you think will win.
True, but roughly half of the invited swimmers don’t contribute all that meaningfully to relays. realistically most of the studs in distance free, 200s of stroke and 400IM are not contributing much in terms of relay points and are only swimming 2-3 individual events. It’s at least better than some conferences where divers are 1/3 of a swimmer due to no platform diving being contested. IMHO that’s a crazy overvaluation of diving points.
Cal fan and not a Texas fan??
Texas divers just went 1st, 4th, and 7th in 3 meter Zone D qualifier. Jordan Windie, Grayson Campbell,
and Jacob Cornish are very important to the Swimming and Diving team at Texas, looking for a 5-peat with their valuable points at NCAA’s!