Early Tuesday morning, the NCAA released their pre-cut psych sheets for the 2015 Women’s NCAA Championships. At the NCAA Championships, only the top 16 swimmers in each event scores points. Points are doubled for relay events.
After scoring out the meet without diving, the California Golden Bears are the favorite to win the meet by 137 points over the Georgia Bulldogs. Based on the psych sheet, Cal is expected to score in every event except the 100 breaststroke. Their biggest event on paper is the 200 IM, with 54 points. They also have 6 other events where they are expected to score at least 40 points as a team.
Georgia will be competing for their third consecutive NCAA title and 7th NCAA title in program history. The Cal Bears are going for their fourth national championship in program history. The last time they won an NCAA title as a team was 2012.
This list will change around a little bit once diving scores can be added in. With three diving events at the NCAA Championships, a good diver or two can make a huge impact.
Below is a breakdown of the points awarded for each event at the NCAA Championships:
A Final Points For Individual Events
1. 20 (40 relays)
2. 17 (34 relays)
3. 16 (32 relays)
4. 15 (30 relays)
5. 14 (28 relays)
6. 13 (26 relays)
7. 12 (24 relays)
8. 11 (22 relays)
B Final Points For Individual Events
1. 9 (18 relays)
2. 7 (14 relays)
3. 6 (12 relays)
4. 5 (10 relays)
5. 4 (8 relays)
6. 3 (6 relays)
7. 2 (4 relays)
8. 1 (2 relays)
This list is based off of the NCAA’s Pre-cut psych sheet published on the morning of Tuesday, March 3rd. Click here to view that psych sheet. The 2015 Women’s NCAA Championships will take place in Greensboro, NC at the Greensboro Aquatic Center from March 19th to the 21st.
| Rank | Teams | Points |
| 1 | California | 505 |
| 2 | Georgia | 368 |
| 3 | Stanford | 309 |
| 4 | Virginia | 295 |
| 5 | Texas A&M | 220 |
| 6 | Florida | 193 |
| 7 | USC | 161 |
| 8 | Louisville | 160 |
| 9 | Tennessee | 130 |
| 10 | Wisconsin | 129 |
| 11 | Indiana | 123 |
| 12 | Texas | 100 |
| 13 | Michigan | 98 |
| 14 | Minnesota | 82 |
| 15 | Auburn | 67 |
| 16 | NC State | 63 |
| 17 | Arizona | 62 |
| 18 | Kentucky | 50 |
| 19 | SDSU | 46 |
| 20 | Missouri | 44.5 |
| 21 | Alabama | 39 |
| 22 | UCLA | 35.5 |
| 23 | Notre Dame | 34 |
| 24 | Penn St | 31 |
| 25 | FSU | 26 |
| 26 | UNC | 26 |
| 27 | SMU | 24 |
| 28 | FGCU | 18 |
| 29 | Nevada | 17 |
| 30 | Denver | 16 |
| 31 | Virginia Tech | 16 |
| 32 | Rice | 14 |
| 33 | Purdue | 12 |
| 34 | Kansas | 11 |
| 35 | Oregon St | 10 |
| 36 | LSU | 8 |
| 37 | Arkansas | 6.5 |
| 38 | Ohio St | 6.5 |
| 39 | Iowa | 5 |
| 40 | Cincinnati | 4 |
Don’t forget the divers….they can add huge points to team totals….Cal always struggles to place any divers…..
Keep in mind that this does not include diving.
Just out of curiosity, how has scoring the seeds fared in the past?
I presume it holds very low predictive value, but it’s always fun. Have people changed their expectations after looking at this? The consensus favorite were the Bulldogs in the pre-season and after the mid-season. Now, I don’t know who the favorites are. But I think the NCAA meet is going to be much more interesting and closer than I have previously thought.
calswimfan – at the very least, scoring psych sheets can help track. Georgia can still win, but they know that they need to improve 150 as compared to seed, relative to however Cal does.
As far as “predictive value,” it actually seems to be a pretty good indicator. Here’s an analysis we did on the basis of the 2013 results: http://swimswam.com/psych-sheet-scoring-really-matter-might-think/
Thanks Braden!
it is crazy to think that UNC beats UVA in a duel, almost beats them at ACCs, and then is seeded to finish a whooping 22 places behind UVA at NCAAs
Absolutely GREAT photo of Rachel Bootsma above! Love it. good work.
If I’m understanding this all correctly, then to be seeded “equal” to Cal for the swimming events, Georgia would have to place the equivalent of 1st and 2nd in all 3 diving events, plus an additional 3rd and 8th place in any of the 3 diving events, and Cal would have to get zero points in any of the diving events. All very unlikely except Cal getting zero. Based on my general impression of conference swims, this is surprising to me. But maybe that’s just because I wanted Cal to go in as underdogs rather than with a target on their back!!
Why is UNC so low when they were undefeated in the dual season ACC and wer runner ups in ACC champs.
Because they only have 1 girl who is a legitimate scorer at the meet?
Being undefeated in dual meets has little bearing on the NCAA standings.
I think the Bears have higher depth in the 200 free. Go Bears!