With the release this morning of the uncut entry lists for the NCAA Championships, we’ve gone through and scored things as they’re seeded.
A note to make sure there’s absolute clarity: these lists released late Monday by USA Swimming are not official lists of who’s been invited to NCAA’s. They are lists of which three individual events, and relays, each team is trying to send to the meet, if the cuts fall in their favor.
With that being said, the top 16 seeds in each individual event are about as sure of a lock as one can get, so scoring out those top 16 is possible, even before the psych sheets are cut.
First, let’s start with a reflective look. Psych sheet scoring is not infallible. It doesn’t take into account taper patterns, diving, and disqualifications or scratches.
What it is, however, is a good starting point perspective, so that during the meet, teams and fans sort of know where things stand, how their team is improving, etc. But they are pretty good. Last year, they correctly predicted both NCAA Champions (Georgia women, Michigan men). The year before, they were close, but not right on. Last year, they had the right top 10 teams in the wrong order, with a lot of the differences (but not all) explained by diving (Tennessee’s scoring difference was largely explained by diving, for example, and they were the really big mover). Below, we’ve done a comparison of the top 10 teams from last year’s psych sheet scoring to the actual outcome, for your viewing enjoyment.
| PSYCH | PSYCH | ACTUAL | ACTUAL | |
| 1 | Georgia-GA | 396 | Georgia | 477 |
| 2 | Texas A&M-GU | 368 | Cal | 393 |
| 3 | California-PC | 345 | Tennessee | 325.5 |
| 4 | Florida-FL | 340 | Texas A&M | 323.5 |
| 5 | Southern Cali-CA | 279 | Arizona | 311 |
| 6 | Tennessee-SE | 266 | Florida | 305 |
| 7 | Stanford-PC | 238 | USC | 291 |
| 8 | Arizona-AZ | 216 | Stanford | 246 |
| 9 | Minnesota-MN | 192 | Texas | 186 |
| 10 | Texas-ST | 136 | Minnesota | 141 |
We’ll break the scoring down a dozen different ways in the next two weeks, but to start, here’s a full list based on just swimming psych sheet scoring. We’ve put a (D) for teams that should expect a significant positive diving impact to their score – which there’s an increasing number of top programs on the women’s side who will be impacted.
Both Cal and Georgia can expect diving points, but Georgia’s should be more with two potential scorers and potential scorers in more events, as compared to Cal who is leaning heavily on Kahley Rowell in the platform.
On paper, Georgia has just under a 130-point advantage, plus whatever advantage they get in diving. That means that the Cal women have some catching up to do – because while Georgia lacks some of the star power they had when they won the title last year, the depth that they’ve developed is absolutely unbelievable. To illustrate that, we’ve included a count of the number of seeded scoring swims (including relays) in the far right-hand column.
| Psych Scored Points | Number of Scoring Swims | |
| 1. Georgia | 514 (D) | 38 |
| 2. Cal | 386 (D) | 29 |
| 3. Stanford | 320 (D) | 20 |
| 4. Texas A&M | 317 (D) | 28 |
| 5. Florida | 268 | 23 |
| 6. USC | 255 (D) | 22 |
| 7. Virginia | 194 | 15 |
| 8. Tennessee | 174 (D) | 10 |
| 9. Arizona | 164 (D) | 12 |
| 10. Indiana | 120 | 12 |
| 11. Texas | 95 (D+) | 11 |
| 12. Minnesota | 83 (D+) | 13 |
| 13. UNC | 73 | 9 |
| 14. Louisville | 63 | 9 |
| 15. Wisconsin | 56 | 6 |
| 16. San Diego State | 54 | 6 |
| 17. Notre Dame | 51 | 5 |
| 18. Auburn | 43 | 8 |
| 19. Penn St. | 43 | 8 |
| 20. NC State | 34 | 4 |
| 21. Missouri | 30 (D) | 5 |
| 22. Wisconsin-Milwaukee | 30 | 3 |
| 23. Kentucky | 28 | 4 |
| 24. Florida St. | 27 | 7 |
| 25. Alabama | 26 | 6 |
| 26. SMU | 19 | 3 |
| 27. UNLV | 13 | 2 |
| 28. Denver | 11 | 2 |
| 29. UCLA | 10 (D) | 4 |
| 30. Florida Gulf Coast | 9 | 2 |
| 31. Oregon State | 9 | 2 |
| 32. Ohio State | 8 (D) | 3 |
| 33. Nevada | 7 | 2 |
| 34. Virginia Tech | 7 (D) | 2 |
| 35. UCSB | 6 | 2 |
| 36. Michigan | 5 | 3 |
| 37. Princeton | 4 | 2 |
| 38. LSU | 4 (D) | 2 |
| 39. Utah | 2 (D) | 3 |
| 40. Arkansas | 2 | 2 |
| 41. Kansas | 1 | 2 |
I’m thinking JT was just referencing the commenter’s predictions of missy wining all the freestyle events hands down. I don’t disagree with that commenter. I think McDermott and Maclean and possibly Vreeland will give her a run in the 5, especially seeing Vreelands 53 split on the end of her 5 at SECs and the battle of the only two swimmers to go 141 in free land and franklin will be fantastic. But the general reply may have just been specific to that comment?
No Dawg fan here but the numbers don’t lie. Unless they somehow self-destruct by swimming slower than their SEC times and DQ a few relays, its pretty much a foregone conclusion…
Great job Swimminisgood.
I also try predictions.
But still early so I will perhaps make a few changes just before the meet.
These are only first ideas.
I want to know which relays Missy will swim. She can swim 4 relays so I presume the 4X100 free, 4X100 medley and 4X200 free relays are sure but between the 4X50 free and the 4X50 medley relays, I have no news.
And sorry for diving but I don’t know anything.
Day 1
4X50 free relay. Georgia
500 free. Missy Franklin. She will start like a bullet and will hold on until the end.
200 IM. Elizabeth Pelton. I always pick her in that event… Read more »
Agree that Missy should swim the 200 medley relay instead of the 200 free relay (Cal’s two weakest relays), but don’t see her on the breast leg. Franklin swam the 100 breast once this season at Cal Poly and went 1:06. McKeever will bring Kong in as a relay-only swimmer specifically for that relay. Cal’s best line up there would be Tran, Kong, Osman, Missy. Surprising that Pelton only swam one relay (800 free) at Pac-12s. Cal’s relays were OK at Pac-12s and think Teri will shake them up a bit at NCAAs.
I haven’t said she should swim one relay instead of another one. I ask the question. Which relays will she swim?
And about breaststroke, do you not think she wouldn’t still be better than Kong in 50 yards? It’s just an interesting question. Or put Celina Li. But she has the 400 IM just after. That relay is a nightmare for Cal! 🙂
It’s a compromise for Cal whatever they do with Missy and the 200 free/200 medley relay, 500 free is just after the 200 free relay and they’re going to have a sub-optimal breast leg with Kong/Garcia/Li on the 200 medley, so I think they try and make up by putting Missy of the free leg on the 200 medley relay. Teri makes up for the absence of Missy on the 200 free relay by adding Pelton to Bing, Osman. and Tran/Bootsma, even though Pelton will swim the 200 IM 15 minutes later. DQ obviously hurt their seed for NCAAs, but they have significant upside from their mid-season 1:28 mid time.
How can you not mention Shannon Vreeland? She’s an elite freestyler and will surely give Missy a run for her money. #dawgs
Jt – I don’t understand your question. We didn’t mention Missy Franklin, nor any other swimmers, in this article. This article is about teams.
It looks like some Georgian fans are big believers in the conspiracy theory about swimswam promoting much more Cal than Georgia. 😆
I too hope for no DQ’s. If you asked 10 people before and during the season, the favorite to win would have been Cal. UGA lost Schmitt and Romano and they are still in the running. Great job UGA girls and coaches! It also proves one superstar (Missy) doesn’t necessarily make a team.
I’m rooting for Cal but I wouldn’t have been one of the 10 who picked them over Georgia even a month or two ago. When I saw them here in L.A. the weekend of the USC and UCLA meets, I was concerned, not because of the slow times, (they actually lost to USC by 60 points) but because of their lack of overall depth relative to GA, and a couple of glaring deficiencies in the mile, diving, and breaststroke. They don’t have quite as much depth in fly as I had thought they did, either.
Li, Pelton, Franklin, will be much faster at NCAA’s I think, but assuming that most of GAs swimmers, the ones already qualified, were also… Read more »
Sure seems like UGA has an excellent shot of repeating. They swam lights out at SECs and even if they come down just a slight bit, Cal has a ways to go to catch up.
My thought is that Cal’s actual scoring will be higher than the projections. However, will it be enough to overtake UGA? Not convinced it will. I think Georgia won’t drop much in their individual race standings. In any case, it sure will be an exciting meet this year. Looks like a battle for 1 and 2, then a battle for the next few spots, with four teams battling it out for a higher podium finish.
Certainly a great time of the year, with… Read more »
I honestly can’t see your bias. Well done. I think while Cal has left themselves by far the most room for improvement, and will be coming for UGA, who is really, clearly, being coached so well. Their depth and ascent in the sprints really speaks to that. I got my money on the Cal ladies to show up lights out and pull this one out, in what would technically be an upset.
Thanks peterdavis – glad to hear that. I agree with you that Cal has the ost room for improvement. I like your predictions on the team race. Your top races to watch? Swimmers to root for?
Great picks! I actually think that Molly Hannis will give Larson a really hard time in the 100 breast. I haven’t forgotten that she split 25.88 on the relay in December.
I think DiRado will win the 400 IM going away.
I also hope for no DQ’s!
Hello gosharks – I see your point on both those races, without question…
I think Molly will certainly give Larson a run for her money – especially that first 50. But, I think Larson has too much second half speed for Hannis. Would love to see Molly swim a great race – she’s a Santa Rosa Neptune swimmer (as was Amanda Sims, one of my all-time favorites), and I’m a fan of “local” swimmers here in the Bay Area.
Speaking of Santa Rosa Neptunes, you named another amazing standout…Maya DiRado. She could certainly win the 400 IM and I almost chose her. I’m just going with Beisel for her fight, though Maya might have just as much. Beisel is… Read more »
Hannis can’t beat Larson. Larson out-split her in the 200 MR. So she has just as much top end speed but a better finish.
I love watching Breeja and Molly race, you couldn’t have two more different body sizes and stroke forms!! Molly is freakishly quick and Breeja is a frikin diesel! Awesome to watch!! I agree, Breeja has the upper hand, but Molly is so quick and powerful; maybe an upset brewing?
At what point do teams have to trim their roster? Are there any potential scorers that may not be at the meet?
Thanks for the number crunching, Braden. The final 2013 team scores include diving, so wouldn’t a better psych sheet/actual results comparison be without diving added into final results? Also the Ds for schools with projected diving points haven’t be added.
duckduckgoose – that is certainly an interesting comparison as well. We’ll make sure to include in in the next couple of weeks. Here we did so to sort of highlight the overall changes between seeds and final standings, but there’s a lot that could also be learned from comparing swimming-to-swimming as well.
Thanks, Braden. I was looking for a quick and dirty way to quantify how many swimming points schools added thanks to taper when I noticed diving points were included in the final points total.
It sure looks like Cal has significant work to do to catch Georgia. Diving a wash at best for Cal between these two teams. We’ll see what the prognosis is for the Cal men during the PAC 12 championships but appears that no psych sheet posted on the PAC 12 web yet. I’m not a big fan of that PAC 12 swimming & diving web-site!
Pac 12 Men’s Psych Sheets:
http://results.teamunify.com/pnws2/