Men’s 200 IM:
2012 Olympic Champ: Michael Phelps (USA), 1:54.27
2015 World Champ: Ryan Lochte (USA), 1:55.81
World Record: Ryan Lochte (USA), 1:54.00, 2011
There’s no denying the fact that two American men have reigned king in the men’s 200 IM going back all the to the beginning of this century. Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte have dominated the event through U.S. Olympic Trials, Olympic Games, World Championships and every meet in between, beginning with Phelps’ crushing victory in at the 2003 World Championships to Lochte’s recent gold medal-winning performance in Kazan.
Phelps, the defending Olympic gold medalist, and Lochte, 2012’s silver medalist, own the top 11 performances of all time in this event, led by Lochte’s world record-setting swim of 1:54.00 at the 2011 World Championships.
Olympics-wise, Phelps has three-peated gold in the men’s 200 IM, winning the world’s biggest prize in 2004, 2008 and 2012. And, the man gives us no reason to doubt he’ll rake in his 4th consecutive gold medal in this event in Rio.
The 31-year-old holds the fastest time on the globe through the Olympic qualifying period with the 1:54.75 he threw down at the 2015 U.S. Nationals in San Antonio, a time that comfortably beat Lochte’s 1:55.81 winning time from Kazan. Phelps toned things down a tad at the U.S. Trials in Omaha, where it took him just 1:55.91 to take the top roster spot, with Lochte right behind in 1:56.22, but his ripped physique didn’t look totally worn out and it’s unlikely either swimmer was fully tapered for Omaha.
Although falling just short to make an Olympic spot in the 400m IM event, Lochte is still a monster in this shorter event, keeping pace with Phelps throughout the last decade. He managed a mighty 1:54.98 at the 2013 Barcelona World Championships, won this race in Kazan and racing side-by-side next to Phelps always brings out the best in this 31-year-old.
Kosuke Hagino, 200 IM prelm, 2013 FINA Worlds (Photo Credit Victor Puig, victorpuig.com)
If there’s anyone who can rain on the Phelps/Lochte parade, however, it’s Japan’s Kosuke Hagino. At just 21 years of age, the dynamic swimmer is a full decade younger than his stars n’ stripes counterparts, and has proven his range over a multitude of events. In Rio, Hagino will be contesting both IM events, as well as the 200 freestyle, but he’s also among the world’s best in events ranging from the 200m backstroke to the 1500m freestyle (sans goggles, even).
Hagino has come as close to breaking the 1:55 threshold as the 1:55.07 he threw down to win the event at Japanese Trials, sitting within two tenths of a second from Phelps’ San Antonio swim. Hagino, who has expressed his reverence of Phelps in interviews, would not be intimidated, but rather would relish the opportunity to swim next to the 22-time Olympic medalist. As with Lochte, racing right next to Phelps, something he hasn’t done since 2012, would potentially give Hagino that extra push he needs to take his 200 IM to the 1:54-level.
Beyond the top 3 of Phelps, Hagino and Lochte, the field’s next tier is composed of two Brazilians. Mainstay competitor Thiago Pereira holds 1:56.65 as his best time since London, the mark which garnered a silver behind Lochte in Kazan. Pereira also wrangled in a silver medal at the 2015 Pan American Games, clocking a time of 1:57.42.
Thiago Pereira. Trofeu Maria Lenk de Natacao, realizado no Centro Aquatico Olimpico. 20 de abril de 2016, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. Foto: Satiro Sodré/ SSPress
Perhaps more importantly than even his times, however, is simply the fact that Pereira is headed to his 4th Olympic Games appearance and this time it’s in his home nation. Nothing drives the competition past their own expectations more than a crowd roaring behind him with the thought of standing on the podium with the host country’s flag raised behind him.
Such thoughts will also be going through the mind of Pereira’s teammate, Henrique Rodrigues. At 25 years old, Rodrigues had a breakthrough performance at last year’s Pan American Games in Toronto, claiming the 200m IM gold in a new Games’ record of 1:57.06. He’s yet to be in the range that would threaten the podium, but he’ll certainly have enough rabbits to chase to make every attempt to do so.
Additional competitors entering the mix include China’s Wang Shun, Australia’s Thomas Fraser-Holmes and Great Britain’s Dan Wallace. Wang Shun scored a time of 1:56.81 to earn a bronze medal in Kazan, but would need to drop almost 2 seconds to fight for the bronze in Rio.
Fraser-Holmes is an athlete who is a 200m IM mogul in his home country of Australia, but still needs to drop significant time to score a lifetime best to be in the level that would cause the Phelpses and Lochtes of the world to tremble.
Finally, Wallace is somewhat of a wild card. The British swimmer and former Florida Gator finished 4th in this event at the 2015 World Championships, but had a rather disastrous British Olympic Trials earlier this year. He wound up 6th in the event at the London Aquatics Centre, stopping the clock at 2:00.26, a mark which wouldn’t have made it out of prelims at the 2012 Olympic Games. In fact, he snagged his British Olympic roster spot based on ‘coaches’ discretion’, rather than because he raced to a qualifying time.
Wallace’s outcome in Rio depends on what kind of swimmer he brings to the table – the one from Kazan, or the one from London.
| Place | Swimmer | Country | Best Time Since 2012 Olympics |
Predicted Time In Rio |
| 1 | Michael Phelps | USA | 1:54.75 | 1:54.4 |
| 2 | Kosuke Hagino | JPN | 1:55.07 | 1:54.8 |
| 3 | Ryan Lochte | USA | 1:55.81 | 1:55.4 |
| 4 | Thiago Pereira | BRA | 1:56.65 | 1:56.4 |
| 5 | Shun Wang | CHN | 1:56.81 | 1:57.2 |
| 6 | Henrique Rodrigues | BRA | 1:57.06 | 1:57.8 |
| 7 | Thomas Fraser-Holmes | AUS | 1:57.88 | 1:58.1 |
| 8 | Dan Wallace | GBR | 1:57.59 | 1:58.5 |
Phelps wasn’t completely rested and is going to blow the doors off every event that he swims. That said, this is Lochte’s best shot at individual gold, he only has one other event and has the ability/speed. I believe they’re going to battle it out (1-2) and the winner will edge the other one out @1:53+. Who will want it the most and get their hand on the wall first – it’ll be interesting to see. I go bk and forth and but think it’s…Ryan.
Phelps and Lochte will be gold and silver. Right now, it looks like Phelps has the edge, but who knows. Hagino for bronze. He could beat one of the two and snag silver, but I have a lot of trouble seeing him take them both down. So far, I have not seen Hagino be truly clutch in an international final. He’s extremely good, but he’s not quite the killer racer that Phelps and Lochte are.
To be more clear re: killer instinct: I think Phelps and Lochte, in a close race, just want it so bad that they lose any perception of limits, and so they are able to dig a bit deeper than your typical Olympian. They’re like hungry animals. Hagino strikes me as the more surgical type: clean, technical, determined, and incredibly efficient, but always aware of limits and what’s at stake. It certainly helps you get to international finals, which is more than most people can say, but I think that sometimes it can be a detriment when you get there. That’s just my perception, however, and it could very well be wrong.
The one thing I’ll say against your argument is that I don’t think Lochte can finish his races well enough anymore. Ya, he is fearless when it comes to going out fast, but there have been a lot of instances where he has been chased down in the final 50 at international meets in recent years. At the 2012 olympics and both recent world championships, he’s faded from a medal position to 4th/5th in 200free. Faded to 3rd in 200back in 2012 olympics. I guess it’s been less of an issue in the 200IM, because he and Phelps have been so far ahead of everyone, but with Hagino in the mix now, top 2 certainly isn’t a guarantee. But perhaps… Read more »
He’s definitely not a back-half swimmer, that’s true. Whether he’s a victim of his own strategy or he’s just getting old, I’ve gotta say he will have to have a cozy lead on Phelps and hagino going into the free. I’m sure the lighter schedule will help. I hope it’s enough for gold, but it’s gonna be a close one.
You have a point and a good insight, I guess. A recent Japanese TV documentary featuring the rivalry of Hagino and D.Seto(’13 & ’15 400IM world champ) described the difference between the two. Hagino has better times. Seto is really clutch. It showed Hagino now knows what he lacks and has been trying to improve his mental ability in races.
I don’t know about Hagino not being clutch. I’ve seen him take down both Sun Yang and Park at the Asian Championships in the 200 free, and I’ve seen him beat Phelps already in the 200 IM.
I see it going
Phelps 1:53.8
Hagino 1:54.7
Lochte 1:54.8
I so badly want to see Phelps take back the WR, and think he’ll be very motivated to do so. I think Hagino is going to become the 3rd swimmer of all-time to break 1:55 in this final. And I see Lochte being probably a second (safely) ahead of 4th place, but not the best we’ve ever seen him – this would be his first time under 1:55 in 3 years.
Sadly I very much doubt that Wallace will be in the final, unfortunately.
Hagino is literally Michael Phelps just from Japan, both have a 53 second backstroke both have a 1:54 200 backstroke. Phelps was a national record holder in the 400 Hagino is the national record holder in the 400. At a young age they both had mind boggling times
Except Phelps has 21 more Olympic medals than Hagino and 8 of them are gold haha
Hagino is also ten years younger
But when Phelps was 19 he was faster than Hagino in the 200 free is now. If we’re olympics for Mike at 17 he would have won 4 golds.
Yeah in sure he catch up in the medal count 🙂
These are safe predictions. I just wish that OR for Phelps though. 1:54.23.
Why stop there? PB 1:54,16
WHY STOP THERE?
WR 1:54.00
But I really have no idea what to expect.
Fraser-Holmes dropped out this race to give someone else to join the Aussie swim team kind gesture. The vets vs the Hagino i dont know my head says Hagino to win it but my heart says Phelps.
Would be special for Thiago to medal at a home Olympics though probably more likely in the 400IM
Just wanted to say how much I have enjoyed reading these predictions as well as the conversation they elicit. ????
Oops sorry question marks shouldn’t be there.