This week in the SwimSwam Breakdown, we discuss the Brazilian Olympic Trials, the Sydney Open, and the upcoming May Meets in the USA. See below for full list of topics:
- 0:00 SwimSwam Breakdown Introduction
- 0:35 Brazilian Olympic Trials
- 3:28 Sydney Open
- 8:32 May US Meets
- 18:08 Blaire Anderson named Director of Swimming at Texas A&M
SINK or SWIM
- 23:39 Will Florent Manaudou medal in Paris at the 2024 Olympics?
- 29:38 Will the Canadian women win more medals than they did in the 2020 Olympic Games (6)?
- 33:35 Will Ahmed Hafnaoui swim in Paris?
- 35:27 Did Kristof Milak *really* miss 32/38 practices following the Hungarian Championships?
- 38:25 Will Katie Ledecky make the 2028 US Olympic Team?
Nice to see Coleman gearing up for his pro-wrestling debut.
Ledecky wins the 1500 in LA without a doubt in my mind. Even with a 15 second add from her 15:20, she’s still faster than any other swimmer in the world in that race. Yeah Summer is beginning to catch her in the 400/800, but the 1500 i see her definitely being the favorite for the gold in LA.
Predicting anyone to win a race four years away without a doubt is absurd
That would be like people in 2008 predicting Rebecca Adlington to win 800 in 2012 London.
Or people in 1988 predicting Janet Evans to win 400 in 1992 Barcelona.
Or people in 2008 predicting Michael Phelps to win 200 fly in 2012 London
Or people in 2008 predicting Michael Phelps to win 400 IM in 2012 London
Or people in 2012 predicting Missy Franklin to win a backstroker event in 2016 Rio
Or people in 2016 predicting Ledecky to win 400 free in 2020 Tokyo
Or…
Or…
Or…
We get it but who’s gonna be the next long distance swimmer that’s gonna make a breakthrough cause nobody else can come close except her right now and the one I can think of right now is Summer in 800 but we’re not sure she’s gonna swim it and the only way it’s won’t be Ledecky is if she’s retired because of some sort of injury or something.
If viewed through an exclusively swimming lens then the case most certainly lies in favour of “yes she will”.
What people are overlooking are the impacts of “real/personal life”; especially when we are talking a career that is already significantly longer than most.
Hence my most honest answer would be “ask me again in 2026” where:
That’s not the standard though. Two months before the Rio Olympics, how many of the Tokyo gold medallists did you predict?
To say with certainty over four years out that a particular person will win means you know for sure that one swimmer will not deteriorate and that other swimmers will not improve.
Only a ridiculous person would make a claim like that.
Anyone else think Katie Grime’s regression in the 800 is a bit strange ? Since Tokyo she’s gone from 4:07 to 4:05 in the 400, and from 15:52 to 15:44 in the 1500, but her 800 has been 8:22 (2022), and 8:23 (2023).
Katie Grimes is 18 years old. Sheesh!
even weirder is she she went out in 8:21 in her 1500 PB in 2022 , but hasnt even been sub 8:21 in an 800 since2021
Erica Sullivan was better in the W 1500 FR than the 800 FR with the Sandpipers of Nevada, as well.
The Canadian women’s 4 x 100 meter relays are definitely in trouble especially compared to the Chinese women’s relays. In the women’s 4 x 100 meter medley relay, the difference in backstroke leg does not offset the difference in breaststroke leg even if one substitutes Tang Qianting’s performance (1:05.27) in the women’s 100 meter breaststroke at the 2024 World Aquatics Championships in lieu of Tang Qianting’s performance (1:04.39) in the women’s 100 meter breaststroke at the 2024 Chinese National Swimming Championships.
Canada will have better back. China will have better breast. Fly will be about even. Canada has the capacity for better free but things aren’t looking good. So you have to favour China right now.
Even if you look at the worse case scenario from the Chinese point of view:
Breaststroke
Angus, Sophie – 1:06.96
Tang, Qianting – 1:05.27
That’s a 1.69 second difference.
Note: Qianting Tang’s performance in the final of the women’s 100 meter breaststroke at the 2024 World Aquatics Championships.
Re Katie 2028, i think it looks likely because she can go 10-15 seconds (maybe 20 in the 1500) slower then her best times and still win in 2028, let alone outside of the top 2.
There are 2 active US swimmers who have even gone fast then 15:45 in the 1500, and no one who was been 15:40. She doesnt have to be even close to her best to get on the team.
Obviously someone could have big times/drops or a new star out of nowhere, but outside of someone like grimes, we would need to see 15-20 second improvements from women who are already late teens/earlier to really make a push.
Federica Pellegrini posted her fastest textile performance (1:54.22) in the women’s 200 meter freestyle (24 Jul 2019) en route to a gold medal at 2019 World Aquatics Championships less than a month before her 31st birthday.
How do you know what times everyone else will be swimming in 2028?
People predicting Ledecky is a lock to win 1500 free in 2028 LA is like:
people in 2008 predicting Rebecca Adlington to win 800 in 2012 London.
Or people in 1988 predicting Janet Evans to win 400 in 1992 Barcelona.
Or people in 2008 predicting Michael Phelps to win 200 fly in 2012 London
Or people in 2008 predicting Michael Phelps to win 400 IM in 2012 London
Or people in 2012 predicting Missy Franklin to win a backstroker event in 2016 Rio
Or people in 2016 predicting Ledecky to win 400 free in 2020 Tokyo
In 2008, Ledecky was 11 yo and no one but her coach and parents knew about her potential.
You never know if there is… Read more »
Hungarian media and the public at large does not usually care much about swimming. Nobody has really got quite the same publicity since Hosszu, and that was partially because of the allegations of d*ping and her very public divorce. So all this talk about Milak is somewhat unprecedented, and can be chalked up to this being an Olympic year – and the fact that Milak with proper training is a definite gold medal for Hungary.
It’s quite ironic actually that the only time he can’t enjoy the relative anonymity of Hungarian swimmers is when he obviously wants it the most.
On Bra Trials update, Balducinni had to do apendicitis surgery
Just on Finke – I think he said in a recent SS interview (maybe a GMM?) that he will switch the 400 IM for the 400 free at trials. I think he said something about how it gives him a day of rest before the 800 (on day 3-4) since the 400 IM is day 2
Just pointing it out because you both said you don’t think he’ll swim it at Trials