Projecting the Cut-Line for the 2016 Women’s NCAA Championships

It’s that time again, where the nerdiest of the swim nerds (aka, SwimSwam) spends hours of time to learn the fates of NCAA qualifiers 12 hours before they’re officially released by the NCAA.

Editor’s Note: to run the numbers, we’ve had to type the entry lists entirely into a spreadsheet by hand. We’ve done several checks to validate this data, but the ultimate check is when the invite lists are released, which is expected to be Wednesday. If you would like to double-check our work, please email [email protected].

• Check out the pre-selection psych sheets here.

The Long Story

Updated after correcting errors

Based on our math (and please email [email protected] if you would like to volunteer to check our math), the cut line will fall at almost exactly in the same spot as last year: everyone ranked 39th or better in their events qualifies for NCAA’s, which pushes the number to 279.

After divers, there are 281 spots left for individual swimmer entries, which means 2 swimmers off of the “40 line” get invited. The way that tie is broken is by taking each swimmer’s time and comparing it to the NCAA Championship (not overall) record, and the swim closest to the record, by percentage, gets an invite.

The two winners of that tie-breaker are Yale’s Bella Hindley and Duke’s Verity Abel. The rest of the swimmers on the list below will go into the alternate list, though there has been several scratches over the last few years so there’s a good shot at the top swimmers on that list earning invites.

Editor’s Note: Though Texas A&M’s Claire Brandt shows on the pre-selection sheets as being on the 40th line, she’s actually tied for 39th-place in the 200 back, and thus qualifies for NCAAs based on that criteria.

The Short Story

If the above nuance is too complicated, it’s as simple as this: any swimmer on the pre-selection sheet who is ranked 39th or better in an event. Bella Hindley of Yale and Verity Abel of Duke so far are the only swimmers who earn invites from the 40 line. Check out the full list of invited swimmers below.