Michael Phelps didn’t want to talk with us at the Longhorn Aquatics Invite. No one really wanted to talk to media in Austin. Elites wanted to test their speed and go home to start tapering.
Phelps’ 100 fly was spot-on. 51.6 is on the mark. His 100 free was solid. I think we all expected a faster 200 free, but only because of a report about him potentially trying to post a time strong enough to secure a spot on the 4×200 Olympic relay. I predicted a 1:46. Phelps swam a 1:48. He was not happy about the swim, but shrugged it off. I pushed him a little about resting/tapering, asking if — after all of his base-work — he needed more rest. I thought he’d poke fun at Coach Bowman for more rest (Bowman standing just off-camera). Phelps did not.
I think Phelps and Bowman see the next two months as a long summer. While everyone is focused on great swims in Omaha at US Olympic Trials, Team Phelps-Bowman will be playing the game of swimming fast enough to secure their schedule for the Olympics in Rio.
PREDICTIONS
My predictions remain the same for the summer, but I think it’s important to note times don’t matter in an Olympic year. It’s about the color of the medals. That’s what will be written in the history books.
49.9 – 100m fly – gold
1:51.9 – 200m fly – gold
1:53.82 – 200m IM – gold
47.7 – 100m free – 4×100 relay – gold
***I remember banging the drum about the 100 free in 2015, saying Phelps is a 47 low. I still think he has a 47 low in him, and I think that if he focused on the 100 free he could crack 47 seconds. At this point his focus is clearly 100-200 fly and 200 IM. Not 100 free. Maybe we can convince him to stick around until 2020 for sprints alone? Could he do that, swim 100 free & fly until he’s 35 years old? I’d certainly like to see it.)
200 free? I think he swims a controlled 1:45 to secure a spot on the 4×200 free relay. I think Team USA wins gold in this event as well.
I don’t think Phelps will be fully rested at US Olympic Trials after seeing his swims in Austin, Texas. He’s done so much base-work and pushed his strength so far in the weight room, I think he needs an entire summer to systematically step it down and recover.
What do you think?
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RECENT EPISODES
This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
Mel, what do you think of the times phelps had in the 200 IM and 100 fly? Do you think maybe they didn’t rest enough before Rio? Do you think doing the 4 X 200 relay was unnecessary since conger could have got it done too?
I’m pretty sure MP was able to do those times in 2015 Summer Nationals is because he had less events(no 4 X 100 relay and no 4 X 200 relay) and no semis of 100 fly, 200 fly and 200 IM and he was able to coast more through prelims saving energy. (Since less competition).
Thus even with MP in better shape in Rio then he was in San Antonio he didn’t have… Read more »
Hey Mel. You predicted that phelps would go 151.9 in rio but he went 153.36. I was really hoping for something in the 151 range to but I at least expected a 152 range. What you think happened? From my limited swimming knowledge I know he screwed up the last turn which also effected his finish. How much time did the last turn cost him? .25? Half second? Second?
I think everyone’s stressed and tired. Olympic finals can be slow…. That was slow Olympic final. At the very least I was hoping to see Phelps swim faster than 1:52.9 (his time last Aug/2015), but no one really remembers times. They remember who won….. I do think Phelps will swim fast in the 100 fly. He showed easy speed in the 200 fly. Maybe the 100 fly will be closer to our predictions. I also think the 200 IM will be fast, and his best shot at a PB.
Was I right with what I heard about his last turn that he didn’t hit it? If that’s the case what if he did hit? How much did the effect his last 50?
I thought the same about it being very stressful for some of the guys and they weren’t 100 percent on their game. Especially after they had the time delay on the blocks. I was also hoping he would go at least faster then 2015 nationals.
Yes definitely agree with that. The main thing is that he won. That’s for sure! I was just hoping for faster. I guess it’s better then phelps going 152.5 or something and losing!
Especially since he did a 154.12 in semis and in his interviews he seemed like he was really happy with that and seemed like expected to go lot faster in finals. He even said bob and him wanted to go 154 low in semis
Phelps would definitely be a medal threat in the 100 fly at Rio. And 200 Im. Dropping 200 fly will do wonders. And 200 free for relay probably wouldn’t be likely, but possible. But I think I would rather see him go out with a bang than be really good as a 35 year old. And he said he is retiring, he’s a father now guys. But I still wonder, he naturally loves swimming, he loves it, I wonder after Rio, how he will be affected by retirement (again).
Love your productions. Fun to watch. I do think the predictions are a tad optimistic. I’m honestly worried about Phelps getting enough rest and possibly having over-trained in Bowman’s heavy heavy sets. Granted, Phelps has thrived in that environment before and I doubt Bowman would have changed things significantly.
I’m hopeful we’ll see Phelps break out with an amazing taper and show us he’s better than ever.
phelps will not go under 50’3 in 100 fly this summer. Period.
Phelps hater
Even though he went 50.4 last year without too much competition and at a “little” national meet? And just recently went 51.6 in season (which, by the way, he didn’t even seem happy with)? Maybe he won’t go sub 50, but 50.3? I think he can do that.
I think so too but it’s not enough.
His 50.4 had a horrible reaction start, and a long turn. Amazing comeback. He should go 50.1 at trials. And wr is a good shot for Rio. He didn’t know he was on that pace, now he is going to be BLOODLUSTED. He’s not going to go mediocre, he is going out WITH A BIG BANG.
Maybe Katie can will some gold for Phelps
“Times dont matter in an Olympic year. It’s about the color of the medals.”
That’s what I repeat again and again on that website.
We will not remember the times in 40 years but we will remember the winners’ names.
I’m extremely wise when it’s about my favorite athletes so my expectations about MP are not crazy.
I just want to see him peak at 100% for Rio and not for trials, to see him have fun and to see him close his career on the highest note possible, a gold medal in the medley relay.
The rest (world records, individual golds) would be icing on the cake.
He has absolutely zero pressure on him for… Read more »
You are extremely wise messrs Gigi! Do not let any other person tell you otherwise!
So, what is your prediction for MP this summer? Just that one gold in Medley relay?
I forgot to say that I wholeheartedly agree with your claim that Phelps does not taper for the trials, he will taper only for Rio, which is the only thing that matters!
Bob Bowman said they’re tapering 4 trials
Then Bob Bowman must have been bluffing.
Why? Your opinion doesn’t make it true. They might change their mind, and maybe not. Bob and Michael are not newbs in this. And they know that he is older, but there is more than a month between Omaha and Rio.
No idea whatsoever . He like every other man about to be married lives in fear of that 3 am call – like GWB!