A cluster of notable Brazilian journalists, commentators and former swimmers gathered in São Paulo earlier this month in the first of a series of meetings under the name #olympicpoolparty.
Among the squad of 9 pool party members is multi-Olympic medalist Gustavo Borges, who is now in the role of swimming commentator for TV Globo, as well as Alexandre Pussieldi of Best Swimming and SporTV. The inaugural meeting focused on the topic of the members’ best guesses for Olympic medalists at the 2016 Rio Games.
Each analyst presented and discussed their candidates for the podium both in the pool and within the open water swimming events and views were based on past Olympic performances, world rankings and additional international meet results.
There were several women’s events in which the #olympicpoolparty concurred 100% as to whom they anticipate winning gold in Rio. All 9 members believe that American Katie Ledecky will top the podium in the women’s 400m and 800m freestyle, Swedish swimmer Sarah Sjostrom will outswim the world in the 100m butterfly, Aussie Emily Seebohm will reign in the women’s 100m backstroke, and Hungarian Katinka Hosszu will beat all in the 200m and 400m IM events.
The group also all voted Team Australian to win the highly anticipated, ultra-competitive 4 x 100m freestyle relay for the women.
As for the men, however, just one individual event received unanimous votes, which was the selection of American Michael Phelps for gold in the men’s 100m butterfly. United opinion also reigned in the selection of Team USA to win the men’s 4 x 100m medley relay.
8 out of the 9 high-profile Brazilian sports leaders chose Phelps to also score the victory in the men’s 200m IM, as well as Aussie Mitch Larkin to earn gold in the men’s 200m backstroke. A lone dissenter instead chose Brazilian Thiago Pereira as the winner of the former event and yet another pool party member chose Japan’s Ryosuke Irie for the latter.
Borges in particular included rather notable names within his picks for 2016 Olympic medalists, including newly-minted American Record Holder Caeleb Dressel. With what may turn out to be incredible foresight, Borges opted for Dressel to take home the silver in 50m freestyle event – behind France’s Florent Manaudou for gold and followed by Brazil’s Bruno Fratus with bronze.
Note that this first #olympicpoolparty was held on February 16th, whereas Dressel’s history-making 18.23 50 yard freestyle and 41.07 100 yard freestyle took place after that date, on February 17th and 20th, respectively. Yes, the swims were conducted in yards, but Borges must have faith the Florida sophomore will successfully translate that speed into meters when it counts to not only make the U.S. Olympic roster, but to thrown down a silver medal-winning time.
The group’s next meeting is slated for March 8th, where new selections will be forecasted. For now, see the complete list of original #olympicpoolparty projections here.
someone picked Le Clos over Phelps in the 200 IM, but nobody picked Le Clos over Phelps in the 100 fly? Seems weird…did these get mixed up somehow? Not that I think Le Clos will beat Phelps in the fly, but he’s got a better shot there than he does in the IM
Nobody picked Le Clos over Phelps in the 200 IM. It happened in the 200 fly.
8 out of the 9 high-profile Brazilian sports leaders chose Phelps to also score the victory in the men’s 200m IM, as well as Aussie Mitch Larkin to earn gold in the men’s 200m backstroke. A lone dissenter instead chose South African dynamo Chad Le Clos as the winner of the former event
one person picked le clos to beat phelps in the 200 im…
This statement is wrong. No one picked Le Clos to beat Phelps in the 200 IM. You just have to check the original projections here: https://cdn.swimswam.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/OlympicPoolParty-Picks-1.pdf
One member picked Thiago Pereira to beat Phelps in the 200 IM. No member mentioned Le Clos even for the podium in this event.
Yeah that was an error on my part…Thiago Pereira was the non-Phelps swimmer selected to win 200 IM
And while I’m crazy, here’s the updated version of my “2016 US olympic team barometer”. 🙂
MEN
50 free. Caeleb Dressel/Nathan Adrian
100 free. Caeleb Dressel/Nathan Adrian plus Michael Phelps/Maxime Rooney/Michael Chadwick/Ryan Lochte for the relay
200 free. Ryan Lochte/Conor Dwyer plus Michael Phelps/Townley Haas/Maxime Rooney/Clark Smith for the relay. Not sure Mr Lochte will swim that event individually but if not, I pick Townley Haas in his place.
400 free. Connor Jaeger/Clark Smith
1500 free. Connor Jaeger/Jordan Wilimovsky
100 breast. Kevin Cordes/Cody Miller
200 breast. Kevin Cordes/Josh Prenot
100 back. Matt Grevers/David Plummer
200 back. Tyler Clary/Ryan Murphy
100 fly. Michael Phelps/Tom Shields
200 fly. Michael Phelps/Jack Conger
… Read more »
I like that you have Grevers Plummer Clary and Murphy making it individually in the backstroke races, but I just don’t see it working out like that. I think Murphy will make it in the 1 and 2 back, Grevers and Clary get in as well. It will be especially tough for the third place finishers here since I think any one of these guys could win olympic gold.
Bobo I actually agree with every one of your women’s picks.
But Phelps will win both flys and the US men will win all three relays, just out touching the French in the 400 FR, in 3:09.2. AUS bronze
USA will have Phelps, Lochte, Dwyer and most likely Rooney for the 800, they will be too strong. USA, AUS, France in that order, GB fourth. 7:00,7:01,7:02,7:03.
And Kevin Cordes wins the 200 BR in a WR, then Koch, Gyurta.
My crazy early picks for winners at olympic games. It will of course change in the next 5 months after national championships.
MEN
50 free. Florent Manaudou
100 free. Cameron McEvoy
200 free. Yannick Agnel 😯
400 free. Sun Yang
1500 free. Sun Yang
100 breast. Adam Peaty
200 breast. Daniel Gyurta
100 back. Mitch Larkin
200 back. Mitch Larkin
100 fly. Michael Phelps
200 fly. Chad Le Clos
200 IM. Michael Phelps
400 IM. Kosuke Hagino
4X100 free relay. France
4X200 free relay. France :shock 😯 😯
4X100 medley relay. USA
WOMEN
50 free. Cate Campbell if Sarah Sjöström also swims the… Read more »
I would love Kaneto to win the 200 breast in Rio. She has a beautiful stroke and has been very fast for a long time, but at meets where it doesn’t count as much. I hope the recent 2:20 gives her the confidence to go into Rio and seize the moment.
I dont completely disagree, but Id just like to know your reasoning for picking le clos for the 200 fly over Phelps. And over Cseh.
Seems like a lot of people think Magnussen is going to get back to his best. Very intersting
Alex has remarkable confidence in LeClos, citing him for BOTH the Silver and the Bronze in the 100 Fly!