There are still firsts left for Michael Phelps in his career. Today, for the first time in his career, he took the top seed in the 200m butterfly prelims at an Olympic Trials.
Phelps was a 1:56.68 to top the charts this morning, the second fastest he’s ever been in the heats of the 200m butterfly at trials.
| Olympic Trials | Prelims Time | Prelims Place | Semifinal Time | Semifinal Place | Final Time | Final Place |
| 2000 | 1:58.61 | 2nd | 1:58.24 | 2nd | 1:57.48 | 2nd |
| 2004 | 1:58.07 | 2nd | 1:56.66 | 1st | 1:54.31 | 1st |
| 2008 | 1:55.85 | 3rd | 1:54.02 | 1st | 1:52.20 | 1st |
| 2012 | 1:57.75 | 3rd | 1:56.42 | 3rd | 1:53.65 | 1st |
| 2016 | 1:56.68 | 1st |
Phelps has been the king of the 200m butterfly since he set the world record in the event in 2001 at the world championship trials in Austin, Texas.
His inauguration into the international swimming scene occurred at the 2000 Olympic Trials in the 200m butterfly where he ended up finishing second to Tom Malchow and qualifying for his second Olympic team.
Since then, Phelps has contested this event at every Olympic Trials, and has never lost since his second place finish in 2000.
Over the years, the times have gotten faster, albeit his 2012 Olympic Trials results were slower than his 2008 results.
A few interesting trends show up in the race data from Phelps’ 200m butterfly races at trials. Phelps has never gone into the semifinals as the number one seed until today. In both 2000 and 2004, he went in as the second fastest swimmer. In 2008 and 2012, he was third after the heats.
In 2000, thats very much indicative of him being the underdog. In 2004, 2008, and 2012, Phelps had such a heavy program at trials that he likely cruised the prelims since he was in such a good position to move forward to the semifinals and didn’t need to wear himself out.
This time around it infers that Phelps is either in amazing shape as he’s led the world to believe in his run-up to the trials, or he stepped on the gas hard this morning. Either way, he looked great, only tightening up slightly in the last 20-meters.
Another interesting correlation between Phelps trials results and his Olympic results takes place. Phelps has only won gold at the games when he’s taken the top seed after the semifinals. Although the relationship between these two results is a stretch at best, it’s an interesting trend.
The result could refer to how Phelps is feeling heading into the meet. In 2000, Phelps was largely the underdog which once again explains why defending Olympic silver medallist Malchow would be faster in prelims, semifinals, and finals.
Between 2004 and 2008, he was arguably in the best shape of his career. That would mean that he could cruise through the semifinals with an easy swim, which still topped the field. In 2012, it’s now known that he wasn’t putting his all into his training, which could explain how his “cruise” speed couldn’t top the field.
Now, with the hard work he’s claimed to put in, Phelps will once again race the semifinals of the 200m butterfly finals. If Phelps is first tonight, and ultimately makes the team, we’ll be able to see if the correlation between first in semifinals at trials and gold at the games stays true.
I have read the article and 2 mistakes are to be noticed : Phelps swam in 2000 in Sidney for his 1st Olympics ( not second ) and he did finish 5th in the 200 butterfly in final ( not second as mentioned ) . Thank you for the corrections
He finished 2nd at trials. Lol, this is trials yo.
Still says that by qualifying to Sydney, he made his second Olympic team. So that’s the mistake
nah 11 year old Michael tore it up in Atlanta don’t you remember? oh wait
Lol, yeh he went a 2:15. Actually I wonder the accuracy of my guess.
After this I am very much certain that he dips into 152 low or 151 high in Rio
Still don’t think that Rome WR is going down.
1 51 high will be the winner.
( P.S. – I WOULD LOVE TO BE PROVED WRONG ????)
1:51.51 should go down.
25.0
53.1
1:22.25
1:51.4
He has the ability for the first 150, but he has to make that last 50m like 2008 comeback. He usually slows down there.
It’s early, but his swim did kind of worry me.
1) He was clearly unhappy with his race ( granted he is a perfectionist )
2) He DID tighten up that last 25m or so ( I’ve never seen that from him at previous OLY T’s )
Again … it’s still so early, but judging by the way he looked, I’d guess he ends up making the team in 1:54 low
but Conger beats him out for 1st in 1:53 high. He might have overtrained, unfortunately.
I think that Phelps beats Conger with a 1:53 mid or low. And his turns weren’t perfect at all. Tighten up, well, I don’t know if he was doing that or backing off. But 1:53 is safe. 1:52 is also safe.
I think Michael will finish 4th in the final
At best. I think 6th or 7th is more optimistic. His only shot is the 200 IM in my opinion, but even there he wont medal in rio. Hagino and the other guys are improving too fast, sorry to say it, but that is a fact.
It is not a fact. Phelps will probs make wr for im. And 200 Fly a Gold medal in Rio. Are you trolling?
I don’t mind the IM at all (what about Hagino?) but 200 fly no Gold for him, I’m sorry.
You cannot say that. I can’t say that he will win. But it is not a fact either way. Only likelihood. Which has favored Phelps in the past.
Hagino could go 1:56, 1:55 or 1:54 at Rio. I suspect the last one.
First yo.
That was a lucky swim for Phelps. In my opinion he has no chance at all qualifying for the US Olympic Team. You could clearly see that the other guys were chillin while Michael was struck by the acid
Couldnt agree more. Finally someone who shares my opinons. He is too old for this game!
Let us talk after tomorrow.
Ask e.g. Laszlo about it. Three guys are on the podium all together 85 years of age. Good not?
Exact opposite. He was chilling.
Didn’t take a hard stroke in the first 100, I was legit laughing at the tv because his stroke looked so easy
Phelps went 1:52.94 last year. And he is in better shape.
In the last three trials, between prelims and finals he’s dropped 3.7 seconds, 3.6 and 4.1. Pretty consistent. That would put him between 1:53.0 and 1:52.5 in finals which lines up with everything else we’ve seen the past two years.
I think we should all be happy with a 153 low in the final
Yes, we would. But we would be happier with a 1:52 mid. I think Caleb is right, 1:52.5-1:53.0 But he could go slower, or faster.
He would be around 153 mid in finals, sealing the deal.
Guarantee if you ask him that was the easiest 1:56 of his life, definitely a world record from him in this, just don’t know if he will do it tommorow night or leave something more for rio
I think he can go a 1:49.9 in semi 1:49.4 in final and 1:48.9 in Rio
Times do NOT matter… GRRRRRRRRR
with a super propeller , why not
If he tries really REALLY hard he can go 1:40.0123456 in 20 years in our local pool…
I am going to report you guys if you keep making (it’s a joke, lol) Phelps look bad.