As the dust settles on U.S., Australian, Canadian, and French Olympic Trials, we’re taking a bird’s-eye view of how the relay battles are shaping up.
Olympic-Qualified Relays
The top 12 relays at 2019 World Championships earned Olympic berths for their nations. Four more nations earned berths by putting up the fastest times among unqualified nations over a 15-month period leading up to the Olympics.
| Nation | ||
| 1 | 2019 Worlds | Italy |
| 2 | 2019 Worlds | Russia |
| 3 | 2019 Worlds | USA |
| 4 | 2019 Worlds | Australia |
| 5 | 2019 Worlds | China |
| 6 | 2019 Worlds | Brazil |
| 7 | 2019 Worlds | Great Britain |
| 8 | 2019 Worlds | Germany |
| 9 | 2019 Worlds | Japan |
| 10 | 2019 Worlds | Israel |
| 11 | 2019 Worlds | Poland |
| 12 | 2019 Worlds | Switzerland |
| 13 | Wild Card | France |
| 14 | Wild Card | Hungary |
| 15 | Wild Card | Korea |
| 16 | Wild Card | Ireland |
Aggregate times below are based on season-bests from September 2020 through June 2021. Lifetime-bests or time drops can obviously change the picture significantly. We’ll do a more in-depth preview of each relay event in the coming weeks, but this first-look projection is aimed at specifically seeing the impacts of recent Olympic Trials meets on the Olympic relay picture.
The Favorites
| Great Britain | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Duncan Scott | 1:44.47 |
| Tom Dean | 1:44.58 |
| Matt Richards | 1:45.77 |
| James Guy | 1:46.04 |
| TOTAL: | 7:00.86 |
Great Britain didn’t even medal in this race at the 2019 World Championships – but the pure math still considers them the favorites. Why? Well, it’s because they’ve got the top two 200 freestylers in world ranks for the season in Scott and Dean, plus two more swimmers inside the top 18.
| Russia | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Martin Malyutin | 1:44.79 |
| Ivan Girev | 1:45.49 |
| Aleksandr Schegolev | 1:45.82 |
| Mikhail Dovgalyuk | 1:46.16 |
| TOTAL: | 7:02.26 |
But no matter what the math says, this one isn’t as simple as it looks. Russia beat Great Britain pretty soundly in their head-to-head European Championships matchup last month. They’ve also probably got as many lineup options as any team in the world. We used their top four in world ranks in the aggregate above. But it was actually Malyutin, Schegolev, Aleksandr Krasnykh (1:46.5 split) and Mikhail Vekovishchev (1:46.4 split) who won Euros in 7:03.48. (The Brits were 7:04.61 with Dean, Richards, Guy and Scott).
Add in the possibility of using backstroker Evgeny Rylov (1:46.5 this year) and Russia could legitimately swim an almost entirely different lineup between heats and finals, resting their top swimmers and allowing several men to swim-off for the final relay spots.
| Australia | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Kyle Chalmers | 1:45.48 |
| Elijah Winnington | 1:45.55 |
| Alexander Graham | 1:45.22 |
| Thomas Neill | 1:45.70 |
| TOTAL: | 7:01.95 |
The reigning world champs, Australia should be right in the mix with Russia and Great Britain. They don’t have the relay-carrying 1:44 standout like the top two yet – Chalmers is just #7 in the world this season. But Australia does have all four men between 7th and 12th, with tremendous depth.
McLoughlin is the 4th Australian in this season’s world ranks. But Australia used Clyde Lewis (1:45.5 leadoff) and Mack Horton (1:44.8 flying start) to win this relay at 2019 Worlds. Lewis is not on the Olympic roster as of now; Horton is.
The Contenders
| USA | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Kieran Smith | 1:45.29 |
| Townley Haas | 1:45.66 |
| Drew Kibler | 1:45.92 |
| Andrew Seliskar | 1:46.34 |
| TOTAL: | 7:03.21 |
As good as those top three are, the U.S. barely scrapes into the contenders category here. The depth is very good, with all six selected relay swimmers sitting in the top 25 in world ranks this season. But the Americans have just two men in the top 10, and they’ll need someone to step up with a 1:43/1:44 type swim if they want to challenge the top three nations.
We’ve speculated about the potential for Team USA to use star sprinter Caeleb Dressel here, but after he went 1:46.6 at U.S. Trials, it’s hard to say if he’s a significant upgrade over any of the 1:45/1:46 types above.
The Field
Italy took fourth at 2019 Worlds, just .03 behind the U.S., with straight 1:45s. So far this year, their national leader is Stefano Ballo at 1:46.76, and they were well behind Russia and Great Britain at Euros. But there’s good depth and a high ceiling for this group.
The true mystery contender is China, which tied a national record with a 7:04.74 at 2019 Worlds – but that was with a 1:44.9 anchor from Sun Yang, who is now ineligible for the Tokyo Olympics.
France earned the top wild card spot via a fourth-place finish at Euros. They were 7:07.24, getting a 1:46.9 leadoff from Jordan Pothain.
Brazil and Germany were both in the 2019 Worlds field and went 7:07s in the final. Fernando Scheffer has been 1:46.2 for Brazil this year; Lukas Martens has been 1:46.4 for Germany.
Hungary is also intriguing, with Kristof Milak going 1:45.7 individually at Euros.
GB heats will be Dean Richards Jarvis Litchfield. Finals not so difficult to make
Guy to be rested due to multiple Fly swims
Scott to drop in and swim final 200
The only issue GB have is where to swim Richards in final,cert to take 2nd leg
Leaving Guy and Scott to chase down the Aussies who will swim the tactical race
AUS
USA/GB
RUS
This is one of those events that are ‘Must Watch’. Might just see a couple of sub 7’s
It’s a shame Dressel didn’t knock out a 1:45.5 or so at trials. I think that would’ve solidified him as being on this relay in the final. I think at the Olympics he’d go 1:44…and while that may not be enough to win this year, if you think that a hyped up Smith and Haas have 1:44 potential in them, that suddenly shifts the entire race into USA’s favor…BUT…
With Dressel 1:46.6, I just don’t see Durden putting Dressel on it given his own busy workload…let’s not forget Dressel will be on the 400 medley, 400 free, and mixed relay more than likely in addition to the 100 fly, 100 free and 50 free events…it’s a BUSY schedule already.
According to wikipedia, the US men have never failed to medal in an Olympic relay event (other than boycotted 1980).
Gold – GB
Silver – Russia
Bronze – Australia
Clear case of four into three won’t go.
On paper, it certainly looks to be Adv GBR given they appear to have the most potential guns to fire
RUS does have recent form, and wins v GBR, on their side
AUS probably lacks the outright weapon(s) other contenders possess but are probably the most even across the four.
This is, most definitely, the weakest USA male relay and at this point looking a little below the other 3 main contenders. Having said that, I’m reluctant to rule them out from at least making the podium
Hard to see anyone else crashing the party.
Based purely on time I say yes, you are correct in regards to the Aussie team, but;
Winnington is fav for 400 free & after 400 free, was disappointed with 200 free swim at trials. Think he has more.
Chalmers, he is due a big 200, fast finisher, big strong fast, I want him to take it out ala Scott & try to hold on in last 50.
Horton, very reliable relay swimmer, best finisher, now training just for 200 & will be tapered.
Graham, Aussie 4th swimmer, swam 1.45.2 in prelims, ummmm.
Lots of high hopes for GB certainly concentrating on the relays with the men’s 4×200 free top of the list
They will medal but not the colour you all want
Scott to DNS in 100 free
So proud that at US Trials all of the athletes respected the competition. Zero podium protests, only a great show of pride and joy. Wallowing in your own self-pity is not conducive to fast swimming i guess.