Last week we released a hypothetical midseason NCAA invite list, with Tennessee and Cal leading the way with 17 projected individual qualifiers. Today, we score out those invite lists to get a look at how those programs stack up at a hypothetical NCAA meet. Despite having the third largest team, it is the defending champion Virginia Cavaliers who sit atop the projected standings.
Last year, Virginia won the program’s first-ever national championship in dominant fashion, scoring 491 points, 137 points clear of their ACC rival and NCAA-runner up NC State. Virginia was led by now-graduated Paige Madden, who won all three of her individual races and swam on the Cavaliers’ NCAA Champion 800 free relay and runner-up 400 free relay. The third place trophy went to the Texas Longhorns, who scored 344.5 points, while the fourth place trophy went to Cal with 290.
If this year’s midseason points projections are any indication of how NCAA’s will pan out, the Cavaliers will be challenged more for the title than last season. UVA tops the rankings with 395 points, but three other programs also project above 300 points, with Alabama, Stanford and NC State close on the Cavaliers’ heels.
The big surprise is the Alabama Crimson Tide sitting with the second-most projected NCAA points with 333 points. One of the big storylines of the NCAA offseason was how Margo Geer would fare in her first season as head coach at Alabama after being hired with limited coaching experience. Thus far, Geer and her staff, which includes US Short Course Worlds assistant coach Ozzie Quevedo, seem to be quieting the critics.
Scored “Psych Sheet Points”
Note: score projections include swimming only and do not account for potential diving points.
| Place | School | Score |
| 1 | Virginia | 395 |
| 2 | Alabama | 333 |
| 3 | Stanford | 320.5 |
| 4 | NC State | 308 |
| 5 | Texas | 284 |
| 6 | Tennessee | 251 |
| 7 | Michigan | 238 |
| 8 | California | 231 |
| 9 | Southern Cali | 175 |
| 10 | Ohio St | 144 |
| 11 | Wisconsin | 104 |
| 12 | Georgia | 100.5 |
| 13 | Kentucky | 94.5 |
| 14 | Indiana | 90.5 |
| 15 | Missouri | 84.5 |
| 16 | Louisville | 74 |
| 17 | Arizona St | 58 |
| 18 | Penn | 53 |
| 19 | Arizona | 38 |
| 20 | Arkansas | 30.5 |
| 21 | Florida | 30 |
| 22 | Northwestern | 26 |
| 23 | Auburn | 22 |
| 24 | Minnesota | 21 |
| 25 | William & Mary | 11 |
| 26 | Duke | 7 |
| 27 | San Diego St | 6.5 |
| 28 | Notre Dame | 5 |
| 29 | Denver | 4.5 |
| 30 | Missouri St (W) | 3.5 |
| 31 | Washington St. | 3.5 |
| 32 | Virginia Tech | 3 |
| 33 | Florida Int’l | 3 |
| 34 | Florida St | 3 |
| 35 | New Hampshire | 3 |
| 36 | UCLA | 2 |
| 37 | CSUB | 2 |
| 38 | U.S. Navy | 1 |
| 39 | Akron | 1 |
| 40 | Texas A&M | 1 |
List of individual qualifiers by team
A few interesting notes:
- Despite only having nine projected individual qualifiers, Stanford is clearly back in the title hunt. The Cardinal check in with the third most projected points, with 320.5. A reloaded roster dotted with Olympians has returned to Palo Alto and the Card seem determined to prove that last year’s 9th place showing was a fluke. How much better is this team? Last year at this time Stanford was projected to score only 66.5 points at NCAAs, making them the “most improved” (in terms of projected points added) team year over year.
- Cal and Tennessee, who we revealed yesterday are tied for the most projected qualifiers with 17, both sit outside of the top 4. Tennessee sits in 6th with 249 projected points and Cal sits in 8th with 229 projected points. The projections have markedly different meanings for each program, however. At last year’s NCAAs Tennessee finished in 10th, so a 6th place projection is a huge step in the right direction, while Cal finished in 4th last season.
- USC seems poised for a massive rebound year. At last season’s NCAAs the Trojans finished just 22nd with 51 points. They currently project 9th with 173 points, a huge improvement over last season, especially considering the drama surrounding head coach Jeremy Kipp’s mysterious status on administrative leave.
- The Florida Gators, in their first season under head coach Anthony Nesty after Florida combined the programs in the spring, project to score only 30 points and finish in 21st. That is down from last year’s actual NCAA finish of 17th with 84.5 points. In the long term, however, the tide will certainly begin to turn in the Gators’ favor after Nesty has secured what is likely the top women’s recruiting class in the country for the high school class of 2023.
For more detailed analysis, check out the SwimSwam Swimulator.
Don’t sleep on CAL!!!!!!
I really get the feeling Emma Nordin is going to crush it this season. She will win the 200/500/1650, and will make the Worlds Team come April in the 4×200 Free-Relay. Maybe the 400 too, (I think Bella Sims will probably be there), but still Nordin is magical. Her trials were a bit of a fluke, and once she has more experience tapering, she will be a monster at the international level.
I agree!!!
I think Lia Thomas disagrees.
UVA doesn’t have a 800 free relay in the database, and Gretchen Walsh missing the mid season invite definitely impacts their relay times/places, and to a lesser extent her own scoring. I’d estimate all of that at about 50 points conservatively.
Looking at the stimulator results, I didn’t see any other top 5 team missing a relay or one of their primary swimmers at their mdseason invite, unless I missed something?
What’s wring with missing an invite?
I think he makes a fair point that no doubt Gretchen Walsh will score significantly above these sheets imply & that UVa will have a A final 4×200 free relay at NCAAs this year. Both seem like valid points & this psyche sheet papers up light for the Hoos…they could easily be in the 420-450 point range at NCAAs in March. Like the Texas men this year, UVa women are just too deep & each are a meet for second.
The swapped out Paige Madden and got Gretchen Walsh and Emma Wyant so they had 491 last year and this year they should beat that.
except this is a zero sum game
On paper the additions of Weyant and GWalsh are a net positive over the loss of Paige Madden and other graduates. With everyone else returning and relays stronger than ever (mostly because of GWalsh), you’d think 500 points is easily within reach. But yeah, the competition will be significantly stronger than last year. I’ll guess they’ll be in 460-480 point area, barring injury or illness, and that will be comfortably ahead of 2nd place.
I need my confidence in USC to actually perform at NCAAs to be come back this year
Anyone happen to know where USC stands as far as a head coach?
I’m sure Lea will finish the season as interim coach. After that may depend on how long Kipp’s initial contract was.
OH no! Is the NC State “4th” curse starting for the women?
Um, NCST women got 2nd place just last March. So there’s no 4th place thing to discuss.
from top 5 , TX has divers to go up but don’t think anyone can touch UVA
I think diving could get it close for Texas. Looking at USADiving winter nationals, last years NCAAs, and a few of the invitationals, one can assume that Virginia, Alabama, and NC State will get no or very minimal points.
Stanford has Lenz and added Sculti this year, both who may get 20-40 points combined.
Texas has Pineda who scored 42, with a final finishes on all 3 boards and has looked good this year and O’Neil who should be good for a or b finals on both springboards. They added Hailey Hernandez who is an Olympian and should certainly a final on both springboards. Skilken or Boyle should final in tower. I could see 45 for Pineda, 30 for… Read more »
Wonder if bama losing their diving coach will make any negative impact
They weren’t going to score any points from Women’s diving with the exception of a small amount from Tanesha Lucoe on platform. I don’t think that change really impacts anything
Lia Thomas single handedly outscoring the majority of teams from Power 5 conferences.
She is abiding by the NCAA guidelines!
Right now her projected points has Penn in 18th…. I highly doubt that she is the first person in NCAA history to be a school’s solo rep & crack the top 20.
Further, plenty of times in swimming history an unsuspecting talent will blossom at a school outside of the top 10… a few that come to mind are Brooks Curry LSU & Shane Ryan PSU
Four other women are scoring the same or more than her: Kate Douglass, Regan Smith, Torri Huske, Maggie MacNeil. This article is also about the team standings, which Penn is nowhere near the top 10. But you decided to ignore all the other women and just focus on her.
Yeah no I swear if keyboard warriors make the entirety of womens ncaa about attacking lia Thomas it would be a shame for the amazing competition
As well as (beyond) hurtful for the LGBTQ swimming community
Lack of fairness is (beyond) hurtful to anyone participating from every part of the swimming community. Unfortunately, the rules can’t be looked at without singling out and discussing the case they impact so shutting people down from making observations isn’t going to help us address this and heal the clear divides.
Those four other women listed by ACC are all medal winning Olympians – that is the company Lia is keeping these days when discussing her times and impact. Considering that in her previous years, competing with men, she did not have an invite time means there is no ignoring that her comparison now is with the best ever in the world.
LOL….. sigh
If you have any problems with Lia swimming, talk to the NCAA. Don’t bring her into it because she is a human bean just like you and me. Grow up
Jimbob literally out here making a statement, no bias from what I can see, and he gets trashed for it. Nuts world we live in.
These people don’t understand that by complaining about the rule you have state the obvious reason the rule is unfair. Hence LIa Thomas is going to be mentioned every time the unfairness of the current rule is discussed. Thats just the way it is. To those complaining do you want us to invent a code word for her like they did for Biden?
How about stop bringing up her name in an article that has nothing to do with her. My god she lives rent free inside of you guys’s heads lmao.