Coming into 2016, the American women looked unstoppable in the 800 free relay. They won last year’s World Championship by 3 seconds ahead of the underheralded Italians, were four seconds better than the Chinese, and were 6 seconds better than the Australians.
What’s more, the swimmers on that relay were aged 20 (Missy Franklin), 20 (Leah Smith), 18 (Katie McLaughlin), and 18 (Katie Ledecky) at the time they won the gold last year, and the three prelims swimmers who were dropped for finals were aged 19, 21, and 24, and are still in the primes of their careers.
That youth is without factoring in a resurgent Allison Schmitt, the defending Olympic Champion, who has already been a 1:56.77 this season and if she continues her rebound will surely take at least one of those spots on the 800 free relay in Rio – and that’s something the Americans need with Katie McLaughlin’s status uncertain after her neck injury.
Everything was breaking for a dominant American performance to build off of their 800 free relay victories at the last four global long course championships: Worlds in 2011, 2013, and 2015, and the Olympics in 2012.
That was until Wednesday, however, when the Chinese women asserted their authority in the final at their National Championship meet in Foshan.
There, the Chinese women had three swimmers goes 1:56.4-or-better on flat-starts, which the American women didn’t match in their finals 800 free relay last year on relay-starts.
China’s weak leg right now, based on results of the Olympic Trials, is Zhang Yuhan, who swam 1:57.06. While that’s still comparable to the Americans’ fourth-best leg from Worlds (McLaughlin in 1:56.92 on a relay start), the Chinese will probably still need to find some upside if they want to upend the Americans for gold like they did at the 2009 World Championships.
The Americans’ upside comes in almost every leg. Schmitt, as mentioned, has looked better every time she’s raced this year. After Franklin’s performance at the PSS-Orlando meet, she’s on pace to be back to 1:54 this year, at least. Ledecky has already been 1:54 in 2016 and leads the world in the event. And between Smith, Runge, Margalis, Vreeland, and maybe McLaughlin, the Americans will have a lot of options to play with for that final spot in the relay. If the Americans hit on all-cylinders, they could even challenge the World Record.
The point is, though, that while the Americans are still favored, their margin for error has gotten slimmer. The Chinese took bronze at Worlds last year, but overall had a dreadful World Championships. If they hit all of their exchanges just-right, and their youth continues to improve as well, then they could challenge the Americans for gold. At least the Chinese should be competitive enough to force the Americans to go all-out for gold.
We suspect that the Australians will also creep into this conversation beginning Thursday morning when they start their 2016 Olympic Trials, as they’ve already had two swimmers go 1:55s this year without a serious taper meet as well.
It is difficult to be fair to the Chinese because of their scandalous recent history. In the 1994 World Championships, the Chinese women swimmers won 12 of 16 golds. Later, they were busted for anabolic steroids. Then 40 of the 300 Chinese athletes withdrew from the 2000 Olympics because of failed drug tests. Also, don’t forget the Chinese swimmers were also busted with enough HGH for the entire team when they were going to Australia. This last year, 6 Chinese swimmers were busted for doping. Then last week, the busts for Clenbuterol.
We get excuses about racism or their performance is due to turtle blood soup, but it’s difficult not to be skeptical when a Chinese swimmer emerges unexpectedly on… Read more »
You still have no right to make general statements like “All ____________(fill the nationality here) are cheaters.” History does show in our sport there are more East German, Chinese and Russian dopers/cheaters than other countries, but ignorant statements like HU’s are disrespectful and unfair to clean athletes.
Firstly, as nobody else had the propriety, congratulations to the young Chinese ladied on great swims.
Secondly – Rio ‘should’ still be a no-contest. If Franklin & Schmitt turn in 1.55s as the should… Game over with Ledecky anchoring. It will just make the race a bit more exciting a little longer if the Chinese go front-loaded.
and HU that your Chinese are cheaters nonsense is hogwash.
Have you heard of the great Chinese butterflyer Wu Peng. Pretty sure he was not a cheater.
I think we are justified in being suspicious…..the saying goes “where there is smoke there is fire”. Any relay swimmer with a prior doping positive is enough for me to disqualify them from the medals. Same thing if one their club teammates test positive..they had three athletes all test for the same drug so in that case its a system problem
So if Jessica Hardy makes the US Olympic team, she shouldn’t be on relays? I’m not sure of my opinion on that one, but if you are going to hold one country to those standards, you have to hold everyone to them. A positive test is a positive test.
THOMASLURZFAN I agree. I think the US are still the favorites unless two of the Chinese girls drop to 1:55 low flat start and a third girl drops to 1:55 mid with the fourth girl, probably the slowest and leadoff dropping to a 1:56
But I disagree that ledecky will be able to catch an anchor no matter the gap. No way is she going to catch an “improved” shen duo if the gap is 4 seconds. But it depends on how the Chinese girls improve. They are on average younger than the US team. So improvement is possible. But the US are still favorites.
American people really like the drama …
There is no reason to panic, just let Ledecky swim at the end and she will chase the chinese girl down, no matter how far behind she might be. USA will win the gold, 1-2s ahead of China/Australia, no chance for any other relay (Italy, Sweden).
Schmitt, Franklin and Ledecky in top shape are faster than all chinese girls. China on the other hand has a very young relay and we know that they dont get tested too often (and even if they get caught, no one really cares), so maybe they will drop huge amounts of time until Rio …
HU – Comments like yours make us Americans look bad (I’m assuming you are an american). I am a strong believer of “zero tolerance” and “life ban” for any form of doping or cheating. “Guilty until proven innocent” or “guilty by association” accusations show disrespect and ignorance – just simply un-American and wrong! Image how most of American swimmers would’ve felt after Jessica Hardy’s incident if someone like you had come out and said “The Americans are cheaters.” Stop this type of nonsense comments already, and instead celebrate the success of these athletes, Americans or not.
Good Point!
Where are the thumb up and thumb down buttons?
100% agree.
I’m sure ‘HU’ will be cheering on the US Track & Field team full of convicted dopers in Rio. I’d bet my bottom dollar that US team matches Chinese swimmers – Just as US track teams had as much dope in them as Germans in the 80s.
You are right. I will apologize for Hu. He/she meant to say “The Chinese are extremely honest”. Hu has nothing to base these claims on. Since the cheating they did in the 90’s there has been a wholesale change in the government that endorsed the chea…..oops. Never mind.
I suggest you boycott your Track & Field team in Rio – Using the same rule applied to the Chinese.
Mixed feelings here. I’d like to believe that relative disaster of Kazan 2015 was the nadir of the US National Team’s performance. I’d like to believe that the confluence of (almost) across the board weak performances and weird team selection at Kazan paints an unnecessarily negative picture of the US team’s potential. I’d like to believe a lot of the young athletes producing excellent SCY times at NCAAAs or producing rapidly improving LCM times at small meets can put it together in time for Rio. However, until we see a true tapered LCM meet, no one knows. This uncertainty is why Trails is going to be so fascinating this year. There are so many veterans on both the men’s and… Read more »
Run up to every single Olympics is ALWAYS enthralling.
Can’t remember any time it was not enthralling.