The Big Ten is among the biggest conferences in college swimming, but unlike some of the other huge conferences, it is not watered down with a few powers and a lot of bottom feeders. The women’s side of the conference has more parity than any in the nation, with the top 6 teams all tightly packed between 13th and 20th in the latest CSCAA Poll.
We got a bit of a preview of the Big Ten Championship at the recent Big Ten Quad Meets, where Minnesota dominated opponents Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois. I think that Penn State is the interesting team to watch here, and is going to surprise a lot of people; they’ve been down for a few seasons, but have more depth than people realize, which will play will in this meet.
This meet will have live video and results at iuhoosiers.cstv.com.
Diving
There are four programs that will share the bulk of the diving points. Minnesota, and especially Kelci Bryant, should dominate the 1-meter and 3-meter competitions, with Purdue and Indiana having a lot of diving depth that will also net them a ton of points. Ohio State’s Bianca Alvarez, an experienced senior, was the runner-up to Bryant last year on the springboards, which should give the Buckeyes a strong boost in their fight for a top-4 finish. Expect the Boilermakers to have a slight advantage over the other three in the diving competition, with the four being miles ahead of most of their competition.
Races to Watch
100 breaststroke
Wisconsin’s Ashley Wanland and Minnesota’s Jillian Tyler both went very fast times just before they broke for holiday training, with a 1:00.05 from Wanland at the Texas Invite and a 58.22 from Tyler in the Minneapolis Grand Prix. There are a few other very good breaststrokers in the field (like Tyler’s teammate Haley Spencer), but these two will be the show-stoppers. Tyler’s 58.22 is an A-cut, so she’s locked in for NCAA’s. Wanland is just off of that A-cut, so she probably feels pretty good about her position as well. Both swimmers are probably 59’s in this race, but I think Tyler gets to the touch first.
100 fly
The top seed is Wisconsin’s Karlyn Houghan at a 53.80, but there’s not much separation all the way down to the number nine seed Annalise Colton of Minnesota at a 54.84. The top 3 should come down to Houghan, her teammate Rebecka Palm (54.68), and Minnesota’s Kaylee Jamison (54.25). Michigan’s Caitlin Dauw also seems to have a long ways to come down to hit her career-best time of a 53-low, so she should be in the hunt too. That being said, there’s no reason that any of those top 9 can’t jump up and grab a medal.
400 medley relay
I really love the Wisconsin medley relay. They are the prohibitive favorites in this event at Big Ten’s, though Minnesota could push them if Meagan Radecke can find a 49-low on the anchor leg. But the Badgers are swimming for national relevance here. They have been in the top 5 in the NCAA rankings all season, yet it still hasn’t earned them the buzz that they should be getting. The Badger’s have the Big Ten’s best swimmer this year in every 100 yard distance except for the 100 breaststroke, where Wanland is second. They have the chance to put up a very special time in this relay. They should have no problem clearing the school record of 3:33.26.
Outcome
Most of Minnesota’s power is focused on the breaststroke and distance freestyles, but I don’t know if they have enough in the other events (especially sprint freestyles) for those few races to hold up. Indiana is the two-time defending Champions of the conference, and though they lost their program’s first ever National Champion (Kate Fesenko) and Big Ten Swimmer of the Year off of last year’s squad, they brought in a freshman class that really strengthened their relays.
Wisconsin has a star in almost every event, and should take the most relays, but are only two or so deep in many events. This won’t hurt them as badly in a conference with 11 full teams as it would in a smaller conference like the Big 12, but their lack of diving will. Michigan is without many of the big names that they’ve leaned heavily on in years past, but still hold on to Adrienne Bicek and Natasha Moody. They’ll need to hit a big taper to compete for the crown. Penn State and Ohio State are anybody’s best guess, because both programs are sort of coming out of nowhere, but upon closer inspection shouldn’t be a surprise.
Indiana’s total package of great swimmers and great divers gives them the edge. Wisconsin is light on the boards, but heavy in the lanes, and their depth will overtake Minnesota for second. The Gophers should be third. This is a case where the NCAA result almost definitely won’t be the same as the Conference results. I feel better about my pick of Indiana winning that Wisconsin second, but I think that the Badgers can pull off the upset.
Expected Finish
1. #14 Indiana Hoosiers
2. #17 Wisconsin Badgers
3. #13 Minnesota Golden Gophers
4. #19 Ohio State Buckeyes
5. Penn State Nittany Lions
6. #20 Purdue Boilermakers
7. #16 Michigan Wolverines
8. Northwestern Wildcats
9. Iowa Hawkeyes
10. Michigan State Spartans
11. Illinois Illini