If you want to create a list of the best swimming nations last year, the top spot is easy: the United States. 7 number one times in Olympic long course individual events, 62 individual top 10 times (not counting women’s 1500, or men’s 800. I’ll count them as Olympic events once they’ve been swum in the Olympics). No other country is close.
The real debate starts at the second spot. Australia or Japan? It’s pretty close. It’s probably Australia, but there are arguments for Japan.
Australia had 32 individual top 10 times in Olympic events last year, slightly better than Japan’s 30. However, Japan had 3 individual #1 times (Rikako Ikee, 100 fly; Yui Ohashi both IM’s) better than Australia’s 1 (Cate Campbell, 100 free). Japan also had 11 top 3 individual times, one better than Australia’s 10. This gave Japan a clear, if slight, lead in the hypothetical world rankings medal table.
If we score out the top 8 in the individual world rankings (9-7-6-5-4-3-2-1), Japan edge out the Aussies with 122.5 points to Australia’s 117 (the U.S. is first with 241.5. Russia is 4th with 77.5).
In a more direct head to head comparison, Japan come out ahead by more. I took the top 8 Japanese and Australian swimmers last year in each Olympic individual event and entered them into a hypothetical meet, again scoring to 8 places. This head to head meet had Japan ahead 710-474.
This means that Japan are deeper in addition to their slightly superior top end swimmers. Case closed, right? Looking only at world rankings in individual events, it appears Japan has a clear advantage; however, there are plenty of other metrics for success and they all point Australia’s way.
The biggest thing ignored by my previous analysis is relays. In the traditional Olympic relays Australia have 3 number 1 world rankings to Japan’s 0. Australia have 5 top 3 relay times to Japan’s 2. Scoring the world rankings in the relay events to 8 places gives Australia 45 points to Japan’s 30. Japan’s strength is in the strokes and IM. Australia is great at sprint free and the structure of swimming makes sprint freestylers more valuable than other swimmers. It’s possible to win 5 world championship medals by only swimming the 100 free. It’s only possible to win 1 by swimming the 400 IM.
Australia also won more stuff last year which is kind of the point of the sport. The two countries competed head to head at the Pan Pac championships. Australia got the better of Japan winning 29 total medals, 8 of which were gold, to Japan’s 23 medals, 6 gold. (The U.S. was first with 45 medals, 20 gold).
Neither country sent a full squad to Short Course Worlds but Australia again won more medals with 12 to Japan’s 8 (each won 2 golds). Both countries half heartedly participated in the World Cup series, and Australia scored more World Cup points (636 vs 459 for Japan. Russia had the most with 1353) despite a World Cup stop in Tokyo and no stop in Australia.
Both countries also competed in major competitions without the other present. Japan won the medal table at the Asian Games with 52 medals, 19 gold, an advantage of 2 over China (50 medals, 19 gold). Australia dominated the Commonwealth games with 73 medals, 28 gold. The comparison of raw medal count is pretty meaningless as there were different numbers of events at both meets, but Australia won a higher percentage of available medals (49% vs Japan’s 42%) against arguably superior competition.
The argument comes down to this question: what do we value? If we weight every event equally and look both at depth and top end ability, Japan appears to be the winner. If we look at everything else, Australia was better in 2018. Australia are better in the events the rules say matter more and therefore dominate the relays. Most importantly, and in my opinion decisively, Australia had more success in actual competitions. Winning races matters and the Australians did more of that this year than the Japanese. Therefore, in my opinion, the top 4 swimming nations of 2018 were:
- United States
- Australia
- Japan
- Russia
Comparison Data
| Top 10 Times | #1 Times Individual | #2 Times Individual | #3 Times Individual | World Rankings Individual “Medals” | #1 Times Relay | World Rankings Relay “Medals” | Points Top 8 Scoring-Individual | Points Top 8 Scoring-Relay | |
| Australia | 32 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 117 | 45 |
| Japan | 30 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 123.5 | 30 |
Scoring Top 8 in World Rankings
Long course. Individual events. Olympic events only
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| United States | 271.5 | 213 | 171 | 191.5 | 272 | 234 | 241.5 |
| Japan | 90 | 59.5 | 123.5 | 81 | 73.5 | 84 | 122.5 |
| Australia | 91.5 | 114.5 | 159.5 | 149.5 | 147 | 75.5 | 115 |
| Russia | 32 | 48 | 19.66 | 31.5 | 35 | 69 | 77.5 |
| Great Britain | 55.5 | 31.5 | 87.5 | 78 | 63 | 65 | 70.5 |
| China | 103.5 | 115 | 74 | 56.5 | 62 | 111.5 | 54 |
| Italy | 13 | 20 | 24 | 18 | 30.5 | 38 | 51 |
| Canada | 16 | 18 | 26 | 31.5 | 33.5 | 34 | 42.5 |
| Hungary | 21 | 56.5 | 34 | 61 | 66 | 72 | 26 |
| Sweden | 19.5 | 23 | 31 | 29 | 22 | 40 | 23 |
| Brazil | 24 | 34 | 23.33 | 19 | 8.5 | 7.99 | 22 |
| Germany | 15 | 18 | 8 | 27 | 13 | 23 | 17 |
| South Africa | 25 | 25 | 19.5 | 23 | 21 | 9 | 17 |
| France | 52 | 45 | 17 | 21.5 | 18 | 10 | 15 |
| Ukraine | 6 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 | ||
| Lithuania | 9 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 5.5 | 7 | 11 |
| Denmark | 17.5 | 31 | 32 | 24.5 | 21 | 10 | 10.5 |
| Netherlands | 30 | 17 | 27 | 32.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 7 |
| Korea | 18.5 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 6 | ||
| Spain | 15 | 34 | 25 | 8 | 20 | 17 | 5 |
| Greece | 1 | 4.5 | |||||
| Singapore | 1 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Poland | 6 | 19 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 7.5 | 3 |
| Algeria | 2.5 | ||||||
| Switzerland | 2 | 2 | |||||
| Austria | 5 | 5 | |||||
| Finland | 1 | 2 | |||||
| Norway | 2 | ||||||
| Hong Kong | 1 | ||||||
| Kazakhstan | 6 | 3 | 6 | ||||
| Belgium | 1 | 5 | |||||
| Belarus | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4 | ||||
| New Zealand | 5 | 7.5 | 9 | 11 | |||
| Turkey | 9 | ||||||
| Jamaica | 2 | 5 | |||||
| Bahamas | 3 | 4 | |||||
| Argentina | 4 | ||||||
| Egypt | 4 | ||||||
| Czech Republic | 2 | ||||||
| Israel | 2 | ||||||
| Serbia | 3 | 2 | 0 | ||||
| Iceland | 0 | ||||||
| Faroes Islands | 4 | ||||||
| Slovenia | 5 | ||||||
| TRI | 1 | 3 | |||||
| Tunisia | 6 | ||||||
| Zimbabwe | 3 | ||||||
| Cuba | 1 |
Love this analysis, very cool to look at. It would be cool if we could click the year to sort by the top scores from that year rather than everything being based on 2018. But that’s an HTML thing not a swimming thing, haha
What if you ask who put up a time that ranks the person in the top 3 all time?
There is no good reason not to treat the men’s 800 as an Olympic event. I do not like the mixed medley relay, but other than that there is no good reason not to treat it as an Olympic event. Only with the women’s 1500 is there likely to be some time yet before competitors get up to speed, but I would still consider it an Olympic event.
The main reason I made that choice was so that the older data was valid. You’ll notice that the table at the end has data going back to 2012. If I had treated the men’s 800 and women’s 1500 like Olympic events, there would have been big asterisks next to 2012 thru 2016 data.
When I first started writing this I wasn’t sure if it was going to take an over time approach or focus on last year like I ultimately settled on. Treating the distance events the way I did left me that option. And even in the current year I don’t think it’s an outrageous choice. Those events are kind of in flux right now transitioning from… Read more »
I agree that Australia edges out Japan for the second place ranking. The Pan Pacs was the biggest meet of the year with both nations more or less at full strength. Australia performed slightly better….. and in Japan’s back yard, too.
Pan Pacs were in Tokyo. Junior Pan Pacs were in Fiji.
I confused now where is Mike from California?
t is now Mike from.Houston . ( free heart meds ) .
Mike in Dallas, perhaps Junior Mike from California😉.
On topic: good analysis but swimming fans know , for instance, that Russia has great talents, particularly on men’s side, and Great Britain can perform far better than in 2018. So, that fight for second spot will be pretty wide in 2019.
Japan has the home Olympics in 18 months….so I think it is advantage Japan for a couple of years.
I can tell you which team shows better sportsmanship around the pool deck. Big hint–it is not Australia.
And definitely NOT the USA either!
how do u know ?
Between Australia and Japan obviously the team that shows better sportsmanship is not a team different from either Australia or Japan.
A little pessimistic for the future and also ignoring the greatness on the team right now like the Campbell sisters and Chalmers. Australia will never be on par with the US but they can still be great.
I agree…you also have to consider simple fact that Australia has such a small population compared with the other top 4 countries….the US has a huge population…..so does Japan….so does Russia…..i personally think that Australia does exceptionally well for their population size….and also when the Aussie stars do fire, it takes a very talented and special swimmer to beat them…
I agree…you also have to consider simple fact that Australia has such a small population compared with the other top 4 countries….the US has a huge population…..so does Japan….so does Russia…..i personally think that Australia does exceptionally well for their population size….and also when the Aussie stars do fire, it takes a very talented and special swimmer to beat them…
I agree. You also have to consider simple fact that Australia has such a small population compared with the other top 4 countries – the US has a huge population – so does Japan – so does Russia. I personally think that Australia does exceptionally well for their population size. Also when the Aussie stars do fire, it takes a very talented and special swimmer to beat them…
I have to agree with Mike. AUS WILL continue to produce some outstanding (and in some cases world-beating) swimmers but the ever increasing costs of supporting a competitive swimmer is such that, rather than being a sport “of the people”, it now draws primarily from the wealthy demographic and thus the available talent pool has contracted.
Post Olympics generally see a “turnover” and Tokyo looks likely to see major shifts in AUS strengths. On the women’s side; its likely that both Campbells will call it quits, likewise Seebohm and at 26, McKeon has to be seen as another potential retirement candidate. This leaves the 4×100 with only Jack remaining but currently no others remotely threatening sub54. However the ages for… Read more »
Spain 5 in 2018? Who? Only Mireia Belmonte (400IM) and Jessica Vall (200BR) as far as I know…
Using top 8 scoring: Belmonte 5th 200 fly, 4 points + Vall 8th 200 Breast, 1 point=5
Belmonte was 12th in the 400 IM
Brazil 17? Spajari and Santos, scheffer, fratus, Lima de Deus and lanza does not add to more?
Fratus 2nd 50 free, 7 points + Sparjari 100 free 4th, 5 points + Santos 100 free 5th, 4 points + de Deus 200 fly 8th, 1 point = 17 points
Scheffer’s best event is 10th (200 free), Lanza’s best is 9th (100 fly), so they score 0. Top 8 scoring is a pretty ruthless system.
Did not count scheffer 1:45:5 so?
This is based on times from the FINA World Rankings (https://www.fina.org/content/swimming-world-ranking). Those are generally pretty good, but not always perfect. That time isn’t showing up there for what ever reason. It should. I updated the above with that time. Puts Brazil at 22.
Thanks Andrew.