At the Olympics all that really counts is a swimmer’s place, but swimming is a sport measured by times. Expectations are based on times, qualification is determined by times, places are determined by times. So let’s look at some Olympic times statistics.
The American women as a whole actually managed to drop time vs time vs their seed times at this meet. Every other major nation added time. The worst performing major nation vs seed time was Australia. Whereas the American women dropped an median of .3% the Australian women added a median of .6%. That gap of .9% might not seem like a lot, but in a 55 second race that’s half a second.
Here the top 8 women’s nation’s performance vs seed. (top 8 as determined by this) (negative is faster, positive is slower)
| All | USA | AUS | CAN | CHN | GBR | JPN | HUN | SWE | |
| Average | 0.6% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Median | 0.6% | -0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Count | 496 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 12 |
| Standard Dev | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
The American men also performed the best vs their seed times, though the margin wasn’t as big as their counterparts.
Here the top 8 men’s nation’s performance vs seed:
| All | USA | AUS | JPN | GBR | RUS | BRA | CHN | GER | |
| Average | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Median | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Count | 550 | 26 | 23 | 21 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 25 | 16 |
| Standard Dev | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
An interesting detail in those tables is the count of data points. 496 women’s events to 550 men. Those counts aren’t representative of the total number of events contested at the Olympics. The Russian swimmers who were re instated weren’t on the FINA entry list I used. Also there were a few no times that weren’t included either. Those small details aren’t enough to overcome the fact that there were noticeably more men’s swims than women’s swims at the meet.
Individuals
Time drops
There were plenty of standout individual time drops. The biggest time drop by percentage for the men belonged to T. Thierry Sawadogo of Burkina Faso who dropped from a seed of 28.38 to 26.38 (7%) in the 50 free. The biggest women’s drop belonged to Bunturabie Jalloh of Sierra Leone who dropped from a seed of 51.56 to 39.93 (23%!!!) in the 50 free.
Here’s the top time drops in the whole field for the men:
| Name | Event | Country | % Change | Seed | Final Time |
| T. Thierry Sawadogo | 50 Freestyle | BUR | -7.0% | 28.38 | 26.38 |
| Mael Ambonguilat | 50 Freestyle | GAB | -7.0% | 29.25 | 27.21 |
| Christian Djidagui Nassif | 50 Freestyle | CAF | -6.7% | 32.17 | 30 |
| Albachir Mouctar | 50 Freestyle | NIG | -3.7% | 27.57 | 26.56 |
| Sitraka Anthonny Ralefy | 100 Butterfly | MAD | -3.3% | 56.6 | 54.72 |
| Olim Kurbanov | 50 Freestyle | TJK | -3.3% | 26.64 | 25.77 |
| Santisouk Inthavong | 50 Freestyle | LAO | -3.2% | 27.42 | 26.54 |
| Dionisio Augustine | 50 Freestyle | FSM | -2.8% | 26.92 | 26.17 |
The top time drops in the competition for the women:
| Name | Event | Country | % Change | Seed | Final Time |
| Bunturabie Jalloh | 50 Freestyle | SLE | -22.6% | 51.56 | 39.93 |
| Chloe Sauvourel | 50 Freestyle | CAF | -20.2% | 46.55 | 37.15 |
| Laraiba Seibou | 50 Freestyle | BEN | -12.4% | 37.67 | 33.01 |
| Mariama Djoulde Sow | 50 Freestyle | GUI | -10.6% | 44.59 | 39.85 |
| Miri Alatrash | 50 Freestyle | PLE | -4.9% | 30.25 | 28.76 |
| Naa Ba-Matraf | 100 Butterfly | YEM | -4.4% | 1:14.43 | 1:11.16 |
| Vitiny Hemthon | 50 Freestyle | CAM | -4.2% | 30.67 | 29.37 |
| Angelika Sita Ouedraogo | 50 Freestyle | BUR | -4.2% | 30.74 | 29.44 |
All of the top time drops came from swimmers who, while important to the spirit of the competition, were irrelevant to the actual competition for the medals. Instead I looked at the top time drops by percentage among swimmers who got a second swim in their event. Simonas Bilis‘s drop from 22.10 to 21.71 (1.8%) in the 50 free topped the men. The women were led by Mireia Belmonte Garcia who dropped from 8:27.94 to 8:18.55 (1.8%) in the 800 free.
As you would expect, many of the meet’s most impressive and surprising results made an appearance on the top drops list. Adam Peaty‘s 100 breast (1.4%), Joseph Schooling‘s 100 fly (1.1%), Dimitriy Balandin‘s 200 breast (1.4%), Pernille Blume‘s 50 free (1.6%) Simone Manuel‘s 100 free (1.5%), and Katinka Hosszu‘s 400 IM (1.3%) all were in the top 8 time drops.
Men’s top time drops (from swimmers who got a second swim):
| Name | Event | Country | % Change | Seed | Final Time |
| Simonas Bilis | 50 Freestyle | LTU | -1.8% | 22.1 | 21.71 |
| Adam Peaty | 100 Breaststroke | GBR | -1.4% | 57.92 | 57.13 |
| Dmitriy Balandin | 200 Breaststroke | KAZ | -1.4% | 2:09.22 | 2:07.46 |
| Duncan Scott | 100 Freestyle | GBR | -1.3% | 48.66 | 48.01 |
| Yasuhiro Koseki | 100 Breaststroke | JPN | -1.3% | 59.66 | 58.91 |
| Ippei Watanabe | 200 Breaststroke | JPN | -1.2% | 2:08.83 | 2:07.22 |
| Joseph Schooling | 100 Butterfly | SIN | -1.1% | 50.96 | 50.39 |
| Chase Kalisz | 400 IM | USA | -1.1% | 4:09.54 | 4:06.75 |
Women’s top time drops (from swimmers who got a second swim):
| Name | Event | Country | % Change | Seed | Final Time |
| Mireia Belmonte Garcia | 800 Freestyle | ESP | -1.8% | 8:27.94 | 8:18.55 |
| Aliaksandra Herasimenia | 50 Freestyle | BLR | -1.7% | 24.52 | 24.11 |
| Pernille Blume | 50 Freestyle | DEN | -1.6% | 24.47 | 24.07 |
| Simone Manuel | 100 Freestyle | USA | -1.5% | 53.52 | 52.7 |
| Yaxin Liu | 200 Backstroke | CHN | -1.5% | 2:09.44 | 2:07.56 |
| Ye Shiwen | 200 IM | CHN | -1.4% | 2:11.23 | 2:09.33 |
| Siobhan Haughey | 200 Freestyle | HKG | -1.3% | 1:58.48 | 1:56.91 |
| Katinka Hosszu | 400 IM | HUN | -1.3% | 4:29.89 | 4:26.36 |
Time adds
On the other side of the coin are under performing swimmers. Again most of the largest time adds came from swimmers who were unlikely to ever get a second swim. The more interesting time adds came from swimmers who still got a second swim. I ranked the biggest time adds among swimmers who were still able to qualify for a second swim. Laszlo Cseh “led” the men in this category with a seed of 1:52.91 and time of 1:55.14 (2%) in the 200 fly. The women were “led” by Viktoria Gunes in the 200 breast. She entered with a seed of 2:19.64 and went 2:23.49 (2.8%).
8 largest time adds from men who got a second swim:
| Name | Event | Country | % Change | Seed | Final Time |
| Laszlo Cseh | 200 Butterfly | HUN | 2.0% | 1:52.91 | 1:55.14 |
| Cameron McEvoy | 100 Freestyle | AUS | 1.9% | 47.04 | 47.93 |
| Cameron McEvoy | 50 Freestyle | AUS | 1.7% | 21.44 | 21.8 |
| Craig Benson | 200 Breaststroke | GBR | 1.4% | 2:09.07 | 2:10.93 |
| Giedrius Titenis | 100 Breaststroke | LTU | 1.4% | 58.96 | 59.8 |
| Yakov Toumarkin | 200 Backstroke | ISR | 1.4% | 1:55.96 | 1:57.58 |
| Michael Phelps | 100 Butterfly | USA | 1.4% | 50.45 | 51.14 |
| Kosuke Hagino | 200 IM | JPN | 1.3% | 1:55.07 | 1:56.61 |
8 largest time adds from women who got a second swim:
| Name | Event | Country | % Change | Seed | Final Time |
| Viktoria Gunes | 200 Breaststroke | TUR | 2.8% | 2:19.64 | 2:23.49 |
| Kanako Watanabe | 200 Breaststroke | JPN | 2.7% | 2:20.90 | 2:24.77 |
| Femke Heemskerk | 200 Freestyle | NED | 2.6% | 1:54.68 | 1:57.68 |
| Emily Seebohm | 200 Backstroke | AUS | 2.5% | 2:05.81 | 2:09.00 |
| Missy Franklin | 200 Backstroke | USA | 2.4% | 2:06.34 | 2:09.36 |
| Sarah Sjostrom | 50 Freestyle | SWE | 2.0% | 24.17 | 24.66 |
| Franziska Hentke | 200 Butterfly | GER | 1.4% | 2:05.77 | 2:07.59 |
| Missy Franklin | 200 Freestyle | USA | 1.4% | 1:55.59 | 1:57.12 |
Seeing Missy’s name on there twice made me sad, but that’s a deceiving list of largest time adds, as I imagine some swimmers seeded in the Top 1-8 didn’t even place in the Top 16 in prelims to even merit a second swim; I bet those time adds were anywhere from meh to outrageous.
There were 10 top 8 seeds who didn’t make it back.
Format is Name, time change, event, seeded place, actual place, seed time (in seconds), final time
Stravius Jeremy 1.4% 100 Freestyle 6 18 47.97 48.62
Carraro Martina 1.7% 100 Breaststroke 7 20 66.41 67.56
Thomas Noemie 2.2% 100 Butterfly 8 18 57.02 58.27
Switkowski Jan 2.3% 200 Butterfly 4 17 114.1 116.73
Gyurta Daniel 2.5% 200 Breaststroke 6 17 128.1 131.28
Turrini Federico 2.6% 400 IM 7 20 251.95 258.39
Kawecki Radoslaw 2.7% 200 Backstroke 4 17 114.55 117.61
Bohl Georgia 2.8% 100 Breaststroke 5 24 66.12 67.96
Van Rouwendaal Sharon 3.5% 400 Freestyle 3 19 243.02 251.44
Heemskerk Femke 3.7% 100 Freestyle 3 20 52.69 54.63
Wasn’t there a dude in the first heat of the 50 who went 22.8?
Guessing his seed time must have gotten messed up or something, but still. It was nuts.
Sidni Hoxha of Albania seed 22.93, heat 1 time of 22.80. No idea why he was in heat 1 with a seed time that fast.
But the USA has its trials too late!…
Maybe other countries should follow that lead instead
Yes, how much did we read this in the comments section before Rio? And where are all those people now?
I think one of the most impressive time drops for a top swimmer was Katie Ledecky with her 100 relay splits of 52.64 and 52.79. Add a 0.5s correction and these times are 1.135% and 0.856% lower than her seed time of 53.75 and her seed time was a large drop from her previous best. If she had swum the individual 100 I think she probably would have made the finals.
Didn’t expect to see Ye Shiwen on the biggest drops list
Her 200 im semi was very good, but she added from that in the final.
Ye Shiwen should also be listed in the top add list for her 1.8% add to her seed time in the final.
The list was calculated by comparing a swimmer’s best time at the meet to their seed. I didn’t want controlled effort, “just make it back” prelim swims filling up the list. As it is, all the swims on the list represent swimmers’ best effort.
Why not just count a swimmer’s last swim?
That approach is also valid, but it runs into the opposite problem. Now the list says Ye Shiwen dropped time and we’re discussing whether it should say she added time. If’ I’d used last times, it would say she added time and some commenter would be saying how she was actually much faster in the semis and should be on the list for biggest drops.
I picked this method because it gives the benefit of the doubt to the athlete. If we’re going to judge based on times, we might as well use best times.