Reviewing SwimSwam’s 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Event Predictions – Women’s Edition

2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

• June 15-23, 2024
• Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
• LCM (50 Meters)
• Meet Central
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index

The U.S. Olympic Trials can be wildly unpredictable, and that proved to be the case last week as an unforgettable nine days of racing in Indianapolis saw its fair share of surprises, though a lot of the big stars made good on their status as pre-race favorites.

SwimSwam’s official picks tied for 34th out of nearly 1000 entries in the Pick ’em Contest, a solid mark, though that only accounts for the top four picks in each event.

Taking a bird’s eye view of all of our picks, let’s review how the SwimSwam picks did accounting for the eight finalists in each event.

• See all of our picks at the SwimSwam Preview Index here.

On the women’s side, our best showing came in the 200 freestyle, where we correctly predicted seven of the eight finalists. We also went 6/8 in the 100 free, 100 back, 200 back, 200 breast and 100 fly.

Technically, our worst showing came in the 400 free—the second prelim on the entire schedule—where only four of the eight finalists were picked correctly. However, that doesn’t account for our 5th-place pick Katie Grimes, who qualified for the final but scratched out.

A total of 11 of our finalist selections ended up scratching from their respective events, either before the prelims or after one of the early rounds:

• Kate Douglass – 50 free
• Katie Grimes – 400 free, 800 free
• Leah Smith – 800 free
• Paige Madden – 1500 free
• Jillian Cox – 1500 free
• Lydia Jacoby – 200 breast
• Alex Shackell – 100 fly
• Torri Huske – 200 IM
• Bella Sims – 200 IM
• Phoebe Bacon – 200 IM

Below, find the swimmers ordered 1-8 based on how we predicted them to finish, with their final placing in the far right column. At the bottom of each event, “Moving In” refers to the swimmers who made the final that we didn’t predict, while the bottom right corner gives a tally of the correct finalists we picked out of eight.

50 Freestyle

Note: In the preview, we noted that if Douglass scratched, Maxine Parker would be our pick for the next finalist. Douglass did scratch and Parker cracked the final, placing 8th.

100 Freestyle

200 Freestyle

400 Freestyle

*not including Grimes, who made the final and scratched.

800 Freestyle

1500 Freestyle

100 Backstroke

200 Backstroke

100 Breaststroke

200 Breaststroke

100 Butterfly

*Not including Shackell, who advanced to the semis in 4th and scratched.

200 Butterfly

200 IM

*Not including Huske, who made the final but scratched.

400 IM

TAKEAWAYS:

• Seven women made the final in multiple events that we didn’t predict: Erika Connolly (50/100 free), Aurora Roghair (400/1500 free), Leah Smith (400 free/400 IM), Ashley Twichell (800/1500 free), Kaelyn Gridley (100/200 breast), Beata Nelson (100 free/100 fly), and Lucy Bell (200 fly/200 IM).
• Roghair (800 free), Nelson (200 IM) and Bell (400 IM) also made the final of an additional event that we predicted.
• Connolly was the only female swimmer we didn’t pick to final to finish in an Olympic-qualifying position (tied for 6th in 100 free).
• The effect that the nine-day schedule had on swimmers is evident in cases where an athlete may have performed well in some events, but been way off in others. Kayla Han, for example, had a breakthrough swim early in the meet in the 400 free, placing 4th (after being scratched into the final) after she wasn’t picked to place in the top eight. In the 800 free, 1500 free and 400 IM, the 16-year-old was picked to be in the final but missed out, with respective finishes of 28th, 27th and 10th.
• In the case of Josephine Fuller, she was not picked to make the 100 back final but placed 4th. She was then picked to make the 200 back final but fell to 16th—perhaps a sign of fatigue late in the meet.
• It was evident that Bella Sims wasn’t at her best from the first session, and that carried through for the week. Sims was picked to make the final in four events, and she missed out in three and scratched the 200 IM.
• Picking the winners on the women’s side was fairly clear-cut, as we got all but two correct, only missing the 50 free and 100 fly.
• In the 50 free, Kate Douglass was our pick to win but she scratched out. However, we still would be wrong on that one even if the scratch was factored in, as our #2 pick, Gretchen Walsh, ended up being the runner-up to Simone Manuel (picked 3rd).
• The only other miss on picking winners was the 100 fly, where Walsh upset Torri Huske after breaking the world record in the semis.
• We picked the top two finishers (in either order) in nine of 14 events. We missed the:
  • 50 free (Douglass scratch)
  • 200 free (#2 pick Bella Sims missed semis, 2nd-place Claire Weinstein was picked 4th)
  • 800 free (#2 pick Jillian Cox was 3rd, 2nd-place Paige Madden was picked 8th)
  • 200 back (#2 pick Claire Curzan was 3rd, 2nd-place Phoebe Bacon was picked 3rd)
  • 100 breast (#2 pick Lydia Jacoby was 3rd, 2nd-place Emma Weber was picked 4th)