2023 U.S. Trials: After Day 4, Women Should Take Full Team; Men’s Path Less Certain

2023 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

• June 27 – July 1, 2023
• Indianapolis, IN
• Indiana University Natatorium
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• Psych Sheet (updated version, 6/26)
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• How To Watch
• Day 1 Prelims Live Recap | Day 1 Finals Live Recap
• Day 2 Prelims Live Recap

This week’s U.S. National Championships also serves as a selection meet for four different international teams: the World Aquatics Championships, World Junior Aquatic Championships, the Pan American Games, and the LEN U-23 Championships.

With so many spots on international teams on the line, we’re doing our best this week to to provide daily updates of how those rosters appear to be shaping up. You can read more about the selection procedures at the bottom of the article.

Here’s how the potential Worlds roster look after three days. Swimmers who are not yet guaranteed a roster spot appear in italics. Tonight’s new qualifiers are noted in bold.

Men

• Carson Foster – 200 fly, 400 IM
• Jack Alexy – 100 free
• Chris Guiliano – 100 free
• Matt King – 4×100 free
• Destin Lasco – 4×100 free, 200 back
• Bobby Finke – 1500 free
• Luke Hobson – 200 free
• Kieran Smith – 200 free, 400 free
• Drew Kibler – 4×200 free
• Jake Mitchell – 4×200 free
• Matt Fallon – 200 breast
• Ryan Murphy – 200 back, 100 back
• Dare Rose – 100 fly
• David Johnston – 400 free
• Nic Fink – 50 breast, 100 breast
• Hunter Armstrong – 100 back
• Thomas Heilman – 200 fly, 100 fly
• Charlie Clark – 1500 free
• Josh Matheny – 200 breast, 100 breast
• Chase Kalisz – 400 IM
• Ryan Held – 4×100 free
• Baylor Nelson – 4×200 free
• Justin Ress – 4×100 free, 50 back
• Henry McFadden – 4×200 free
• Michael Andrew – 50 fly 

Women

• Regan Smith – 200 fly, 200 back, 100 back
• Kate Douglass – 100 free, 200 breast
• Abbey Weitzeil – 100 free
• Gretchen Walsh – 4×100 free, 50 fly, 100 fly
• Olivia Smoliga – 4×100 free
• Katie Ledecky – 800 free, 200 free, 400 free
• Claire Weinstein – 200 free
• Bella Sims – 4×200 free, 400 free
• Erin Gemmell– 4×200 free
• Lilly King – 200 breast, 50 breast, 100 breast
• Katie Grimes – 400 IM
• Torri Huske – 100 Fly, 4×100 free
• Rhyan White – 200 back
• Lindsay Looney – 200 fly
• Jillian Cox – 800 free
• Alex Walsh – 400 IM
• Lydia Jacoby – 100 breast
• Katharine Berkoff – 50 back, 100 back
• Alex Shackell – 4×200 free
• Maxine Parker – 4×100 free
• Leah Smith – 4×200 free

Out of the six possible slots from tonight’s competition, four US men who had already qualified or potentially qualified added an event: Kieran Smith (400 free), Nic Fink and Josh Matheny (100 breast), and Ryan Murphy (100 back). Meanwhile, David Johnston (400 free) and Hunter Armstrong (100 back) punched their tickets with wins.

The good news for Team USA is that with a total of 20 men qualified in either priority 1 or 2, and six spots remaining in tomorrow’s three events, all 20 men in the first two priorities are now assured a spot on the roster. However, there are five men in priorities 3-5 who are still awaiting confirmation that they’re going to Japan: Ryan Held, Baylor Nelson, Justin Ress, Henry McFadden, and Michael Andrew.

There is an outside possibility that all six of tomorrow’s slots could go to swimmers already on the team. In fact, it feels very likely in the 200 IM, where Carson Foster and Chase Kalisz seem poised to sweep the IM spots with Shaine Casas not swimming at his best this week. It’s also quite possible in the 800, where Bobby Finke and Charlie Clark were the top two men last year and already secured spots in the 1500 this week.

That means it is highly likely that Held and Nelson will make the final roster, and perhaps Ress and McFadden as well. If our math is correct, Ress would go first in priority 4 over McFadden since his 100 free time was a greater percentage of the FINA ‘A’ cut than was McFadden’s 200 free.

The big question mark, though, is the 50 free, where the prohibitive favorites coming into the meet, Caeleb Dressel and Michael Andrew, have not been on form this week. It’s possible that a couple men already on the team could finish in the top two, like Jack Alexy, Chris Guiliano, or Matt King. Relay-only swimmers Ryan Held and Justin Ress could also help secure their own spots on the team with top two finishes.

But, if at least one man who don’t already figure into the selection priorities finish in the top two in the 50 free, that definitely means someone in priority 4 or 6 is staying home, even if the four spots in the 800 free and 200 IM go to men already on the team. Andrew, particularly, needs a top two finish in the 50 free, as he’s the only swimmer in priority 5 who’s not also in a higher priority, and thus, would be the first man left off the roster if it exceeds 26 swimmers.

The women are in much better shape, as doubles today meant that all priority 2 swimmers are assured a spot on the team, along with priority 3 (Alex Shackell), and one priority 4 swimmer. If our math is right, Leah Smith (4×200) gets the nod over Maxine Parker (4×100) for priority 4 based on how their swims compare percentage-wise to the FINA ‘A’ standard. But, with 20 swimmers already guaranteed spots and only one swimmer (Parker) waiting for a spot, it will only take one double tomorrow to ensure that the women can take all eligible swimmers. Given the stars that are swimming tomorrow, at least one more double seems highly likely

We’ve been working through the Junior Worlds, Pan Am, and LEN U23 rosters as well, and those got shaken up tonight as swimmers like Thomas Heilman and Alex Shackell secured spots on the senior Worlds team. That creates some second and third effects on the Junior Worlds roster, as we’d been listing them there until their senior Worlds spots were assured. Check the spreadsheets below to see our latest and greatest projections for all four team rosters. Again, these rosters are constantly in flux, so if we’ve missed or misplaced a swimmer somewhere, please let us know in the comments.

Men’s Projected Rosters

Note: while we’ve made every effort to ensure these projected rosters are accurate as possible, there’s a lot of moving pieces, and there’s also the possibility we’ve made a mistake somewhere. Please don’t buy plane tickets to see your favorite swimmer based solely on the info below.

Women’s Projected Rosters

Here’s a summary of the relevant priorities by team, courtesy of the various USA Swimming selection documents:

World Championships – max of 26

• Priority #1. The first priority will include both (i) the four best finishing Available Swimmers based on finish order from the Finals the Qualifying Competition in each of the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyles, and (ii) the best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals of the Qualifying Competition in each of the Individual Olympic Events other than the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyle.
• Priority #2. The second priority will include the second best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals of the Qualifying Competition in each of the Individual Olympic Events other than the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyle.
• Priority #3. The third priority will include the fifth best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals of the Qualifying Competition in each of the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyles.
• Priority #4. The fourth priority will include the sixth best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals of the Qualifying Competition in each of the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyles.
• Priority #5. The fifth priority will include the best finishing Available Swimmer based on finish order from the Finals at the Qualifying Competition in the Individual Non-Olympic Events. No more than one Available Swimmer may be selected in each Individual Non-Olympic Event. If the Available Swimmer with the fastest time at the Finals in an Individual Non-Olympic Event declines the invitation to be Selected to the Team when that invitation is offered by USA Swimming and/or declines to swim in the Event for which he/she qualifies in the Championships, USA Swimming will not Select an Available Swimmer in that Individual Non-Olympic Event via Priority #5.

World Junior Championships – max of 26

• Priority #1. The first priority will include both (i) the four best finishing Available Swimmers from the Finals at the Qualifying Competition in each of the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyles, and (ii) the best finishing Available Swimmer from the Finals of the Qualifying Competition in each of the Individual Olympic Events other than the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyle.
• Priority #2. The second priority will include the second best finishing Available Swimmer from the Finals at the Qualifying Competition in each of the Individual Olympic Events, other than the 100-meter and 200-meter Freestyles.
• Priority #3. The third priority will include the fifth best finishing Available Swimmer from the Finals at the Qualifying Competition in the 100-meter Freestyle.
• Limitation. Before applying these Priorities, and before any Available Swimmer accepts or declines an invitation to be Selected to the Team, USA Swimming will identify the 8 best finishing Available Swimmers in the 100-meter Freestyle and 200-meter Freestyle, and the 6 best finishing Available Swimmers in all other Individual Olympic Events, at the Qualifying Competition (the “Best Finishing Swimmers”). Only those Available Swimmers who are among the Best Finishing Swimmers will be considered for Selection to the Team in that Event, and those who are not among the Best Finishing Swimmers will not be considered for Selection to the Team in that Event.

Pan American Games – max of 18 

• Priority #1 – The top two best-finishing Available Swimmers from Nationals in the 100 and 200-meter freestyles, plus the one best-finishing Available Swimmer in the rest of the individual events.
• Priority #2 – Second-best finishing Available Swimmer in events other than the 100 and 200-meter freestyles. If this results in more than 18 for either gender, swimmers will be ranked based on percentage of “A” Time Standards, with the swimmers closest to those Time Standards being chosen.
• Priority #3 – Third-best finishing Available Swimmer in the 100 and 200-meter freestyles from the qualifying competition. If not all of these swimmers are selected, they will be ranked based on their percentage of the “A” Time Standard in the event for which they qualify under this priority. Only two relay-only swimmers per gender will be nominated under this priority.

LEN U23 Championships – max of 7

• Priority #1 – The two best available swimmers based on the finish order from Trials in the 50, 100, and 200 freestyle events will be ranked based on proximity to the “A” time standard. The two swimmers per gender whose times are best relative to the “A” time standard will be chosen.
• Priority #2 – The one best available swimmer based on the finish order from Trials in the 400, 800, and 1500 freestyle events will be ranked based on proximity to the “A” time standard. The one swimmer per gender whose times are best relative to the “A” time standard will be chosen.
• Priority #3 – The one best available swimmer based on the finish order in the 100 and 200 butterfly will be ranked. The one swimmer per gender whose times are best relative to the “A” time standard will be chosen.
• Priority #4 – The one best available swimmer based on the finish order in the 100 and 200 backstroke will be ranked. The one swimmer per gender whose times are best relative to the “A” time standard will be chosen.
• Priority #5 – The one best available swimmer based on the finish order in the 100 and 200 breaststroke will be ranked. The one swimmer per gender whose times are best relative to the “A” time standard will be chosen.
• Priority #6 – The one best available swimmer based on the finish order in the 200 and 400 IM will be ranked.  The one swimmer per gender whose times are best relative to the “A” time standard will be chosen.
• Priority #7 – If the team is not full, which would only happen if there was an overlap between swimmers chosen in the above priorities or they ran out of Available Swimmers, then all available swimmers in all individual Olympic events will be ranked based on percentage of “A” time standard, and they will be added (by gender) until the roster cap is hit.