The name “Shanghai” infiltrates pretty close to every article we post these days. After that, London will be the most desirable city for swim fans, and sometime in August of 2012, the focus will turn to emergency-host Barcelona, who got the bid after Dubai pulled out of their committment.
Shortly thereafter, swimming will begin close inspection of their next triad of cities. We already know where the Olympics will be (Rio de Janiero, Brazil), but the two meets that will sandwich them are still up for grabs. On July 15th, the FINA bureau will take a vote to determine at least one of those venues, if not both. But only three of the original five bids will have their presentations seen, as was announced in a press-release by FINA today:
Lausanne (SUI), July 5, 2011 – After the deadline (July 4, 2011) to present formal bids, the Cities/National Federations of Guadalajara (MEX), Hong Kong (HKG) and Kazan (RUS) are the final candidates to the organisation of the FINA World Championships 2015, and eventually 2017.
The vote of the FINA Bureau will be made on July 15, 2011 in Shanghai (CHN) after the presentation of the three projects, and if two bids are judged capable of hosting FINA World Championships, the Bureau will award the organisation of the two editions at the same time.
Before 2015 and 2017, the 14th FINA World Championships will take place in Shanghai (CHN) from July 16-31, 2011 and the 15th FINA World Championships will be organised in Barcelona (ESP) from July 19-August 4, 2013.
A few months ago, FINA announced the 5 finalists to receive either bid, and we broke down the hosting odds of each city. (See that story here). Since that time, Guangzhao, China was eliminated (as we predicted, it was bettered by fellow Asian bidders Hong Kong), as was Montreal, Canada (who was only bidding for the 2017 games, but there was a lot of concerns over their 2005 hosting bid, which was a financial failure).
The three hosting cities left are the three cities who I liked the best out of the candidates. As a standalone city, I still feel that Kazan, Russia, is the best candidate city.
However, I’ll stand by my prediction that, for political reasons, the pick is Guadalajara, Mexico in 2015 and Hong Kong, China in 2017. The World Championships won’t been hosted in the Western Hemisphere in 10 years by the time 2015 rolls around, and FINA will be under some pressure to take the meet back to that part of the world. Perhaps more significantly, the event hasn’t traveled to Latin America since 1982, and with the FINA President being from Uruguay, there will be some influence into getting back to one of the world’s fastest-growing regions.
Hong Kong is about as close to a lock as there is in this race, as every sporting event in the world is eager to dip their toes into the Chinese economy as often as possible. China is hosting both the World Championships and World University Games this year, and Hong Kong — which is an autonomous administrative region — would allow them to do so without being accused of pandering to the Chinese.
FINA will be compelled to select at least the 2015 host at their meeting this year, though if they don’t feel as though they see two host-worthy presentations, they have the option to hold off on selecting for 2017.
But the disadvantage of Hong Kong is they didn’t get a letter from government to support them to host the World Chamiponship, also they don’t have finanicial guarantee from the HK government
Braden, do you have a link or remember where you heard or read that FINA has said that Rome was to be the last outdoor championships? I’m wondering if they really said last outdoor, or last *uncovered*. I also believe that Athens was to be the last uncovered swim competition during an Olympic Games, but that venues could still be open-air, that is, they just need to be covered, so as it was during Atlanta 1996 or as Chicago had proposed in their final bid for 2016, open air with a roof, was still allowable. If indeed FINA wants the meets fully *indoors*, this makes it even harder I think for the U.S. to ever hold this event.
Good point…I’ll look into it and see if I can find something with the exact wording. There’s nothing in the official FINA rules, I believe I heard it from David Rieder. I’ll try and get back by this evening…
FWIW, even the smaller natatoriums in Shanghai run 5,000 with the larger at 18,000 seats, and those sold out in about a day. I can’t imagine FINA accepting much less seating capacity than that, let alone the 3,500 available in Budapest.
Guadalajara? Plenty of drug trade violence and an altitude of 5100 ft. No thanks…
Also wouldn’t surprise me if they give Hong Kong the 2015 Championship, and hold off to see what happens at PanAm’s in Guadalajara this year before deciding on 2017. But I agree, the drug violence is spilling over into the tourist havens as of late, which could be a bad decision.
Is it not surprising that Budapest did not make the shortlist?
Based on how well they did hosting European Championships last year, yes. But when you look at the economics of it, maybe not. Their big aquatics center is an outdoor stadium that sits only 3,500, and neither of those will meet FINA specs (I believe FINA has said that Rome would be the last outdoor World Championships). It would be up to Hungary to invest the money into another huge aquatics center, and my guess is more likely that they didn’t submit a bid rather than that they weren’t made as finalists.
..and it’s my wish that someday, this event comes to the United States…someday…somehow…someway…(I know, I’m dreaming)