The absence of both Jenna Strauch (knee injury) and Chelsea Hodges (hip surgery) from international competition this summer leaves Australia without its top two breaststroke specialists for the 2023 World Championships next month in Fukuoka, Japan. Strauch and Hodges have handled breaststroke duties on the Australia women’s 400 medley relays for the past two years since the Tokyo Olympics.
The most likely medley relay replacement for Strauch and Hodges is 25-year-old Abbey Harkin, who won the 100 breast title at the Australian National Championships in April with a time of 1:07.77. The other options involve more moving parts. 100 backstroke world record holder Kaylee McKeown could switch to breast, Mollie O’Callaghan could lead off the backstroke leg instead, 29-year-old Olympic champion Emma McKeon could anchor on the freestyle leg, and 27-year-old Brianna Throssell could fill in on the butterfly leg. Or McKeon could remain on the butterfly leg and Shayna Jack could anchor instead.
Here’s how the three relay combinations compare on paper with their best flat-start times:
| The Harkin Option | The Throssell Option | The Jack Option | |
| 100 Back | Kaylee McKeown, 57.45 | Mollie O’Callaghan, 58.42 | Mollie O’Callaghan, 58.42 |
| 100 Breast | Abbey Harkin, 1:06.88 | Kaylee McKeown, 1:06.86 | Kaylee McKeown, 1:06.86 |
| 100 Fly | Emma McKeon, 55.72 | Brianna Throssell, 56.96 | Emma McKeon, 55.72 |
| 100 Free | Mollie O’Callaghan, 52.49 | Emma McKeon, 51.96 | Shayna Jack, 52.60 |
| 400 Medley Relay
(Flat-Start Total) |
3:52.54 | 3:54.20 | 3:53.60 |
At first glance, the choice seems obvious with Harkin’s quartet more than a second faster than the alternatives. But there are a couple additional factors to consider.
First, even though Harkin’s lifetime best (1:06.88) is just .02 seconds slower than McKeown’s, it came at last year’s Australian National Championships and she went on to add time at the World Championships (1:08.12) and Commonwealth Games (1:07.47) later in the summer. At this year’s Australian National Championships, Harkin was nearly a second slower than last year’s meet. For reference, Strauch went 1:05.99 on the breaststroke leg at last year’s World Championships.
Meanwhile, McKeown swam her personal-best 100 breast (1:06.86) in February, untapered, at the Victorian Open Championships. Recent history suggests that the difference between McKeown and Harkin could be more like a half or full second rather than just a blink, as their best flat-start times indicate.
What’s more, O’Callaghan has showcased recent improvements in the 100 back. The 19-year-old shaved nearly half a second off her lifetime best from 2021 at this year’s Australian Championships in April (58.42). Meanwhile, in the 100 free, she hasn’t been sub-52.5 since her personal best from last year’s Australian Championships.
At last year’s World Championships, Throssell filled in for McKeon on the butterfly leg and posted a 57.19 split to help Australia take silver in 3:54.25, about half a second behind the U.S. (3:53.78). McKeon is the national record holder in both the 100 free (51.96) and 100 fly (55.72), so she should be fit to swim either stroke on the back half. Jack’s best 100 free time (52.60) came at last year’s Australian Championships, but she was only off her lifetime best by .04 seconds at this year’s meet.
Sticking with Harkin is probably still the safer option this summer, but it could be a lot closer than it initially appears on paper. The fact that shuffling the medley relay lineup to move a world record holder (McKeown) and world champion (O’Callaghan) off their signature events is even a debate for the Aussies underscores the impressive versatility of their roster.
Slightly related – it looks from social media like Georgia Bohl has made a comeback but racing for Malta. Unsure whether this is with an eye on Paris though.
For me the ultimate best option would be:
Back – McKeown
Breast – Harkin
Fly – McKeon
Free – Jack
I mostly agree, but would replace Jack with MOC. Jack and MOC both don’t have amazing relay changeovers, but MOC’s 100 free relay splits have been consistently much better than Jack’s.
I know this article is about the upcoming World Champs, but maybe Kaylee’s sister Taylor should make a comeback for 2024?
Haha great suggestion! Although Taylor was more of a 200 swimmer, her PB in the 100 is only 0.2 faster than Harkin.
Yeah, but maybe if she focused on training for the 100? I just love it when siblings are on the same championship team, and I always liked Taylor.
Taylor was never particularly consistent at the 100 and had trouble backing up from heats to semis at World/Olympic level. Her 100 PB was only a couple of tenths faster than little sister.
Little sister has also proven to have the better “big meet temperament”. Whilst she “backed up” far better in the 200 than the 100; she never quite delivered in the finals. From 2017 onwards, she fell away massively.
Unless Strauch’s injury proves to be career-ending, I’m not really seeing a convincing case for luring her back.
Imagine the commentators- Mckeown passes off to McKeown that then changes to McKeon….commentators already screw their names up!
I’ve watched the Tokyo Medley Relay final at least 100 times and cringe when Nicole Livingstone says “Emma McKeown on backstroke”
Nicole was NOT on fire in Tokyo….she usually brings her A game, but she really seemed disinterested and distracted.
Barring the US having a complete “stinker” of a meet; the only way they are likely to lose this one in Fukuoka is via their own misadventure.
With that in mind, whilst they will certainly not wish to disgrace themselves; the main game for this AUS relay will be ensuring they auto-qualify for Paris. With CAN looking underpowered, SWE still minus a competitive backstroke leg & CHN probably still lacking power on a couple of legs; this still looks exceedingly likely …. barring an absolute shocker.
The McKeown to breaststroke scenario only really enters the equation if Harkin is truly off the pace in Fukuoka (ie. high 1.07/1.08) AND MOC is swimming 58 v low or better. IF McKeown is… Read more »
Canada underpowered….Back, fly and free are just fine. This is gonna be a toss up for the top 3
Backstroke is good with Masse, but she had the fastest split in Tokyo and based on performance this year, she is likely to be well behind McKeown and Smith this year. Breast leg is unlikely to be better than a 1:07 flat. MacNeil likely has the fastest fly leg but not by a huge amount. Then the freestyle leg is usually a dependable 52 mid-low (Oleksiak free splits over the past 2 years are 52.26, 52.26, 52.51 and 52.65) but now is likely going to be a 53 low at best.
I definitely haven’t counted Canada out but losing Oleksiak is a significant blow to their medley relay.
Have held Masse in the highest regard for a number of years and am not going to start dissing her now; however she has not been sub58 since Tokyo and her best this year has been 59.00 (Wilm 58.8) whereas both McKeown & Smith have been sub58 repeatedly this year. Rather than being on-par, CAN is most likely ceding some real time.
BRS = no stronger than AUS; arguably weaker.
Fly ? Maggie is most certainly CAN’s ace card but she’s most likely in a Kyle Chalmers type role of trying to rescue a podium rather than putting distance into the likes of USA or AUS.
Free ? A fit Oleksiak and you have an absolute gun anchor leg but… Read more »
In theory, the AUS relay could still win. But in practice it does seem EXTREMELY unlikely.
As I said yesterday, taking the PBs of each leg minus 1.5 for relay starts for Kaylee/Harkin/Emma/MOC would be faster than Tokyo winner and second fastest all-time. So in theory if every leg is on fire they could break the Australian Record. But seems very unlikely. I think USA will be faster than Budapest but definitely slower than their WR.
For Aus to win we would need the same series of events that occurred in Tokyo.
Namely:
1) Aus to outperform the USA in the back, fly and free legs
2) The USA to underperform on breast
I could see both events happening, but not to the extent that the 2 seconds Jacoby (or King) should have over Aus can be offset by heroics on the other legs.
I couldn’t see it happening especially the second one where they underperform on breast where they also went fast when they lost it two years ago and even when Australia outperform US two years ago, they won by the skin of their teeth with the changeover mistake by the US.
Yes, this relay is one where the greater spread of strength will favour USA at least 80% of the time. Since AUS started taking relays seriously; they’ve generally been in a position of “keeping them honest” most of the times but rarely if ever have they had the requisite strength across all strokes. Rather, its been a case of being ‘catchers’ when US has had an off meet/they have a great meet.
By ‘underperform’ I mean a situation where Jacoby fails to improve on her individual swim despite a relay start. While this could conceivably happen, I don’t think she’s going to go as slow as the 1.05 mid/high needed for Aus to capitalise as I’m not sure Harkin will break 1.06.
I think the last time I can remember they underperform on the breaststroke was when King going slower than her individual events at Rio 2016 and I’m pretty sure the US coach gonna go with the best lineup on the
medley relay like they always do and like you said there’s a possibility they could underperform but I just don’t think it’s gonna be on breaststroke.
C1 announced now she is stepping out of Aussie Trials also. Won’t plan on racing until World Cups in the fall
She said months ago she wasn’t going to Worlds even if she qualified. I don’t think she would have been in the medley relay anyway.
A disaster!
End of discussion.
See ya then, leave to us to discuss Troll.
Well right now I don’t see US losing this one even when Australia is using MOC on back and McKeown on breast and this summer it’s all about to qualify for Paris.
You’re right. With the unfortunate circumstances for Aus this year it does seem very unlikely that USA can be challenged in this relay.
I’m almost certain we don’t swim Kaylee on breast.
Yes we needed Hodges at her best to have a chance.
We went from probably Silver to probably Silver.
How will Australia ever recover?
I remember Australia when they used to DOMINATE this relay, especially the breaststroke leg. But now the odds are much slimmer. Harkin would have to put down a massive split to keep Australia in the mix for gold. While our backstrokers, butterflyers and freestylers are definitely of high quality, the breaststroke is always where we lose it. Strauch and Hodges have put down great splits but Hodges seems off-form since 2021, and Strauch out, we need Harkin to put a great leg in, at least a 1:06 low, maybe 1:05 a possibility?
The best team I feel would be: McKeown (BK), Harkin (BR), McKeon (BF). The freestyler would be very close, because of the amount of talent, but the best… Read more »
In shambles!
Like rats on a sinking ship.
This thread is about swimming, not your personal life. Keep it on topic!
A lot of countries would be happy with this ‘disastrous’ choice of swimmers to pick from- McKeown, McKeon, MOC, Jack etc….
I don’t recall MOC having shown her hand in the 100 free this year as much as she has in the 100 back. She opted out of 1 or 2 100 frees recently, hasn’t she?
She conceivably could go faster than what she has shown, and faster then her PB.
It was a poor thing to say in the article, considering her lightly rested 52.63 was only a little over a month ago, that is her equal 2nd fastest 100 ever.
Her 1back and 1free season bests came at the same meet.
she’s only done nsw and nationals so far this year and at nsw she swam the 400 free and 200 back instead of the 50/100 free
her 50 back/200 free times across both meets were similar but she was definitely trying out different 200 pacing at nationals, her 100 back at nsw was a second slower than her time at nationals but that was also after she swam a 400 free PB
I totally want to see the Jack option just to see what they can do!
MOC has been improving in the back, I think KcKeown can throw down a 1:05 low split, McKeon on fly is our best option, and who knows what Jack (or Wilson or Harris) could do.
I’m not ready to write them off yet!
1:05 low split might be a bit optimistic.
Anything sub 1:06 is a pass split for Aussies (vs recent years) and will allow the other legs a chance to shine
Yes, a sub 1:06 starts make things tight!
Could be but looking at things right now the result probably gonna be just like last year world championship.