How The Cal Men Won NCAAs After Falling To ASU At Pac-12s

2023 NCAA DIVISION I MEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• March 22-25, 2023
• Jean K. Freeman Aquatic Center | Minneapolis, MN
• SCY (25 yards)
• Meet Central
• Full Results (PDF)

The California Golden Bears accomplished a rare feat on Saturday at the Men’s NCAA Championships, earning a second consecutive national title despite falling short of winning the conference crown three weeks earlier.

The Cal men came into this year’s Pac-12 Championships as the five-time defending champions, but were dethroned by the upstart Arizona State Sun Devils, who have seen a program revival since the appointment of Bob Bowman as head coach in April 2015.

ASU finished fifth at the 2015 Pac-12s, more than 500 points back of victorious USC, but have steadily progressed under Bowman’s watch, placing fourth for four straight years from 2017 to 2020, and then after the entire team redshirted the 2021 campaign, the team placed third last year, though still over 200 points (201.5) back of champion Cal.

At this year’s championships, the Sun Devils had an incredible performance to claim their first-ever conference title, winning six individual events—three coming from Leon Marchand—and having nine swimmers score 40 or more points to ultimately oust the Bears by 78.5 points.

At NCAAs, however, Cal came through to win a second straight title with 482 points, 52 clear of the Sun Devils, who kept the team race tight throughout the entire meet and set another program best with their runner-up finish.

Cal winning the national title after not winning the conference championship was a rarity, but it’s not the first time it’s happened in men’s college swimming.

TEAMS TO WIN NCAAS AFTER NOT WINNING CONFERENCE – MEN

Cal’s NCAA victory marked the 11th time this specific occurrence has happened in college swimming, and the first since 2012. A team winning nationals after losing the conference meet has only ever happened in the Big Ten and Pac-12, and the last six occurrences have all happened in the latter.

It happened five times in the Big Ten between 1938 and 1962, twice including Indiana winning the conference meet before not racing at NCAAs, and over the last 44 years, it’s happened six times in the Pac-12.

How did this happen? Let’s dive into the data.

Below, find the number of points each team scored at both Pac-12s and NCAAs in each event, and the difference between them.

• Note that the “Difference” column is from Cal’s perspective—that is, if the number is negative, that’s the number of points the Bears lost to the Sun Devils.
• The “NCAA to Pac-12 Difference” row shows a positive number if Cal made up points on ASU relative to their Pac-12 performance at NCAAs. For example, let’s say ASU scored 25 points in the 500 free at Pac-12s and Cal scored 15. If at NCAAs, ASU scores 25 points and Cal scores 20, this row would show +5, because the Bears made up points compared to Pac-12s.

200 MEDLEY RELAY

• By disqualifying their 200 medley relay at Pac-12s, Cal lost 40 points to ASU in the first event alone. At NCAAs, the Bears only gave up four points to the Sun Devils in the event, making their difference +36 relative to Pac-12 scoring.

800 FREE RELAY

500 FREE

200 IM

50 FREE

200 FREE RELAY

400 IM

100 FLY

200 FREE

100 BREAST

100 BACK

400 MEDLEY RELAY

1650 FREE

200 BACK

100 FREE

200 BREAST

200 FLY

400 FREE RELAY

OVERALL

What Do The Numbers Tell Us?

Going through each event, we can see that Cal gained ground on ASU relative to their Pac-12 scores (but not necessarily outscoring them) in 11 events at NCAAs, while the difference between the two teams was the same in two races (200 free relay and 1650 free).

The Sun Devils made up ground on the Bears in five races at NCAAs, though that number comes with a bit of a caveat. In two of those events, the 100 fly and 100 breast, ASU scored zero points at NCAAs, but their deficit to Cal in both events was smaller than it was at Pac-12s.

Overall, Cal made up 117.5 points on ASU at NCAAs relative to the gap between the two teams at Pac-12s. After trailing by 68.5 points (swimming only) at the conference meet, they came out on top by 49 at NCs.

The events in which Cal gained the most were the 200 medley relay (36 points), where they DQed at Pac-12s and thus had nowhere to go but up, along with the 50 free (37 points) and 500 free (30 points). In the two free events, ASU had four ‘A’ finalists at Pac-12s but only one scoring swim at NCAAs.

This tells us that the Sun Devils have a lot of swimmers capable of making the top eight at the conference level, but need to swim at their absolute best to earn a second swim at NCAAs. Cal’s swimmers, on the other hand, have a higher ceiling, were able to drop time at NCAAs, and push for finishes inside the top three or four in their events.

DEPTH BREAKDOWN

At NCAAs, the two teams had a very similar number of swims score, but Cal has the edge in every category seen below, other than relay points:

2023 Men’s NCAA Championships

Compare those numbers to Pac-12s, where ASU had 10 swimmers make the ‘A’ final in all three of their individual events, while Cal only had six. The teams once again had a near-identical number of total scoring swims, but at the conference meet, the Sun Devils had the edge in terms of ‘A’ final swims:

2023 Men’s Pac-12 Championships

*Note that these numbers include those with three scoring swims/’A’ finals.

DROPPING RELATIVE TO SEED

One of the primary reasons why Cal was able to overcome ASU at NCAAs is simply due to the fact that on average, their swimmers dropped time from seed, while the Sun Devils did not.

Cal averaged to drop 0.2 percent from their seed time at NCAAs, while ASU added 0.4 percent.

In terms of scoring relative to their seeded points, the Bears outperformed their projection by 25.5 points, while ASU also scored more than their seed by 3.5.

We also can’t overlook Cal’s DQ in the 200 medley relay at Pac-12s, falling 40 points back right from the jump, and they were also outscored in diving at the conference meet by nine points (47-38). ASU had 11 scoring dives at Pac-12s, and although 10 of those weren’t inside the top eight, they still added up and contributed to their conference win.

Between the diving events and the 200 medley relay, Cal lost 49 points to ASU at Pac-12s. Although the Sun Devils won the meet by 78.5 points, it’s clear the swimming competition between the two at the conference meet was very close—tighter than the final score probably suggests.