Aqua Women Pick Freestyle, Energy Men Pick Fly For Match 1 Skins Races

Last season, the stroke in which the 3-round skins race would be conducted was selected by the team who finished first in the 4×100 medley relay. In season 3, the winning team still technically gets to make the selection but the process to determine which team is the “winning” team and the pool of strokes from which they can choose is a little bit different.

As a reminder, here is the protocol for skins stroke selection during ISL season 3:

1. The top 3 teams in aggregate medley relay points advance to the stroke selection process.
   1. The aggregate points are the combined points total from each of a team’s two relays. So a team that takes 1st and 8th in the women’s medley relay (20 points) would technically finish behind a team that took 2nd and 3rd (26 points).
   2. If there is a tie in aggregate points, the advantage is given to the team whose team finished first in the heat.
2. The third-place team in medley relay scoring gets to exclude one stroke from the selection process. For example, the third-scoring team could strike down breaststroke as a skins option to avoid facing Lilly King.
3. The second-place team in medley relay scoring gets to exclude another stroke from the selection process.
4. The first-place team in medley relay scoring chooses between the two remaining strokes to lock in the skin race stroke for the next day.

In order to illustrate how the rules are applied, we’ll go through the results from the medley relays on day 1 of match 1 step by step to get a picture of how it all works.

Step 1: Determining The Medley Relay Winners

The first step is to determine which team, both women’s and men’s, scored the highest number of aggregate points on the 4×100 medley relays. As a reminder, missing the minimum time standard, disqualifying, and no showing a race can all lead to negative points in an event that subtracts from one’s aggregate score.

Women’s 4×100 Medley Aggregate Points

We’ve hit our first snag in the rules. Aqua Centurions and Energy Standard tied in terms of aggregate points in the medley relay, having both scored 22 points overall. Aqua’s 2 teams finished 1st (18 pts) and 7th (4 pts), while Energy Standard finished 3rd (12 pts) and 4th (10 pts). According to the rules, the advantage here goes to whichever team had a higher individual finish in the race which, in this case, was the Aqua Centurions. That makes the Aqua Centurions in 1st place, Energy Standard in 2nd, and Toronto (16 pts) in 3rd.

Men’s 4×100 Medley Aggregate Points

Both DC and Toronto had one team each whose performance essentially took them out of the running to select the stroke of the men’s skins race. One of DC’s teams disqualified the race which gave them a score of -4 which, when added to their other team’s 5th place, 8-point finish, gives them an aggregate score of 4. Toronto Titan Brent Hayden suffered a minor injury prior to the race which resulted in the team scratching one of their teams, giving the Titans an 8-point deduction. That gave Toronto a total score of 2 considering their other team’s 4th place finish (10 pts).

In addition to a loss of points for DC and Toronto, the respective DQ and DNS gave the winning Energy Standard squad a bonus 6 points (4 from DC and 2 for Toronto).

• Read more about the DQ and DSQ relay rules here.

That extra 6 points for Energy Standard wound up being crucial for skins selection purposes since they ended with a total of 30 points to the Aqua Centurions’ 26 which is only a margin of 4 points. In summary, DC and Toronto’s blunders not only took those 2 teams out of contention, but they were the reason that Energy Standard out-ranked Aqua for most aggregate points.

Step 2: Stroke Elimination

Once the 2 winners of the medley relays have been determined, the next step is for the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams to each eliminate 1 stroke from contention for skins selection. On the women’s side, Energy Standard and Toronto chose a stroke to eliminate for Aqua, and on the men’s side, the Aqua Centurions and DC each chose a stroke to eliminate for Energy Standard.

Since we have only been told which strokes the 2 winning teams chose, we’ll have to guess which strokes the 2nd and 3rd ranked team eliminated.

As for the women, it would make sense for any team to eliminate breaststroke considering that the Aqua Centurions went 1-3 courtesy of Arianna Castiglioni and Martina Carraro. Energy Standard would be more likely not to eliminate breaststroke, however, considering that they have long course world record holder Benedetta Pilato and 200 breaststroker Evgenia Chikunova on their team. Strategy-wise, it would be smart for Energy Standard not to eliminate breaststroke first since Toronto would have no choice but to do so if the stroke was still available after Energy Standard’s pick.

If Energy Standard knew that Toronto would eliminate breaststroke second, they could essentially control both picks and eliminate whichever stroke (back, fly, or free) that they wanted.

It’s likely that Energy Standard would prefer a freestyle or butterfly skins race considering their dominance in the sprints of those strokes. We know that Aqua chose freestyle and wouldn’t forgo picking breaststroke, so Energy Standard probably backstroke here to keep free and fly in the running.

Alternatively, Energy Standard went ahead and eliminated breaststroke right away, leaving Toronto to eliminate fly, back, or free. If that’s the case, we know that Toronto would keep backstroke in the running to give Kylie Masse and Lisa Bratton a shot at the skins and would select either freestyle or butterfly to eliminate. Since Aqua eventually chose freestyle, Toronto would have probably eliminated butterfly. That storyline would make sense as well as Toronto would rather have freestyle in the mix rather than butterfly considering Kasia Wasick‘s 2nd place finish in the individual 50 free during day 1.

To summarize, here are the 2 most likely elimination orders for the women’s skins:

Scenario 1

• Energy Standard: Backstroke
• Toronto Titans: Breaststroke
• Left for Aqua to Pick: Freestyle, Butterfly

Scenario 2

• Energy Standard: Breaststroke
• Toronto Titans: Butterfly
• Left for Aqua to Pick: Freestyle, Backstroke

On the men’s side, we’ll take a look at how the Aqua Centurions and DC Trident likely went about choosing strokes to eliminate for Energy Standard’s skins selection.

The Aqua Centurions got to pick first and since Energy Standard ultimately chose butterfly, we know that Aqua either eliminated free, back, or breast. That makes it pretty easy to decipher how the selection process went because Aqua likely wouldn’t have chosen to eliminate either freestyle or breaststroke over backstroke. Aqua went 2-3 in the men’s 50 freestyle and 1-3 in the men’s 50 breaststroke which is significantly stronger than their 5-6 finish in the men’s 50 backstroke. Additionally, Aqua’s Thomas Ceccon and Leonardo de Deus were 3rd and 7th, respectively overall on the backstroke legs of the 4×100 medley relay.

Assuming that Aqua decided to take backstroke out of the running, DC was left to eliminate either butterfly, breaststroke, or freestyle and ended up choosing either breaststroke or freestyle (since Energy Standard selected butterfly). DC’s Hoffer and Apple finished 5th and 8th in the individual 50 freestyle, respectively, while Felipe Lima and Tommy Cope were 4th and 6th, respectively in the 50 breast. Additionally, Cope actually won the 200 breaststroke for DC earlier on in the session which is significant considering the endurance required for the skins race.

A stronger breaststroke than freestyle performance on day 1 for DC on day 1, would lead DC to eliminate freestyle, but that’s not even the main reason to do so. It could have been detrimental for DC not to eliminate freestyle here because that would leave open the possibility for Energy Standard to choose the stroke, thus getting to use Ben Proud and Florent Manaudou in the event. That duo could certainly go 1-2 and score major points for their team. For those reasons, we think it likely that DC eliminated freestyle from contention, leaving Energy Standard to choose between butterfly and breaststroke.

To summarize here’s out most likely scenario for how the elimination round went:

Scenario 1

• Aqua Centurions: Backstroke
• DC Trident: Freestyle
• Left for Emergy Standard to Pick: Breaststroke, Butterfly

Step 3: Stroke Selection

The 3rd and final step of the skins process is for the winning team to choose from the remaining pool of strokes.

According to our speculation, the Aqua Centurions women were most likely left with a choice between freestyle and butterfly or between freestyle and backstroke. Aqua’s performances on day 1 don’t tell us much about how they would have made either of those choices. They went 3-7 in the 100 fly, 4-8 in the 50 back, and 5-8 in the 50 freestyle. It’s possible that Aqua made the choice to go with freestyle to keep more options open in determining who will swim the race for them.

On the men’s side, we’ve laid out that Energy Standard most likely had to pick between breaststroke and butterfly for the skins race and ultimately went with butterfly. This would make sense for Energy Standard since they went 4-8 in the 50 breaststroke and they know that Aqua’s Martinenghi-Scozolli duo would be hard to beat in a breaststroke skins race. Further, Chad le Clos and Ben Proud‘s respective 100 fly and 50 freestyle victories indicate the potential for success for Energy in a butterfly skins on day 2.

With much guesswork out of the way, what we know for certain is that day 2 of match 1 will conclude with a women’s freestyle and men’s butterfly skins race. The 3-round, triple-point race could wind up being crucial in determining which team walks away victorious in the first meet of ISL 2021. Be sure to check back in tomorrow for day 2 of the meet and see how the new skins selection criteria pan out and the swimmers take to the pool.