Previous World Championship Trials previews:
- Women’s 50 free.
- Women’s 200 IM.
- Men’s 100 fly.
- Women’s 100 breast.
- Women’s 100 fly.
- Men’s 50 free.
- Men’s 100 breast.
- Men’s 200 IM.
It wasn’t long ago that the 400 free was a bit of an abyss for the Americans. At the 2011 World Championships, the U.S. A. only had one finalist in the event, Katie Hoff, and she was 7th. There were some other good times that year by Americans, but they were all at the wrong meets (the Indy Grand Prix was popular.)
But no more.
As the class in the women’s 400 free has elevated worldwide, the Americans have gone with it. Allison Schmitt was 2nd at the Olympics in an American Record of 4:01.77. Chloe Sutton wasn’t great at the Olympics (she missed out on the top 8) but was a 4:04 at Trials – a time worthy of a top-5 finish in the world.
Then there’s the really terrifying swimmer. Katie Ledecky swam a 4:04.34 at the Olympics, which made her the third-fastest American in 2012. How did the Americans have three swimmers in the 400? Well, Ledecky’s swim, a 15-16 National Age Group Record, was actually a split en route to an 800 free Olympic gold in London. That’s probably more like a 4:03 if she swam to a hand-touch, rather than a flipturn.
Ledecky’s speed is much improved this year and she has already gone 4:05 in 2013 at the Mesa Grand Prix, plus gone toe-to-toe with Missy Franklin in the 200.
Here’s the twist: Sutton, who trains at Mission Viejo, is doing some work on her 200 this year, which likely means improved speed, which we saw a lot of at the SMOC last weekend. As mentioned she was a 4:04.1 last year at Trials, which is a great time, and that’s after really going after the longer events, and still sort of feeling her way through pool swimming (as compared to her history in open water.)
Out of those three, in some combination, there are two World Championship medals waiting to be had (especially with the retirement of Britain’s Rebecca Adlington and the change-in-focus of Italy’s Federica Pellegrini.)
Kate Ziegler has been racing so-so this year, though we haven’t seen her since the Orlando Grand Prix in February. She’s been focusing on a shorter schedule than we’ve seen from her in the past, going nothing over a 400 (best of 4:14 in January) so far, but she told Bob Schaller of 20 Questions Tuesday that she’s taking a break this year, so count her out for Trials.
Then there’s a whole lot of really young, very intriguing swimmers, and it’s anybody’s guess which one will pop. Becca Mann, who is both a great race and a great trainer, is already on her way to Barcelona in the 5km and 10km open water races at just 15 years old. She’s a fierce competitor, so it would be wise not to let her hang around with the lead pack for too long. There’s also Gillian Ryan from NBAC, who’s had a good two weeks of swimming in California. Ryan has said that she’s been working on her speed, and that has shown up in a big way in this 400 – having already been 4:08-low this year.
Of the 13 swimmers in the world in 2013 who were 4:07 or better in the 400 free, five were teenagers: Ledecky, Smith, Ryan, Elizabeth Beisel (don’t forget that she was 5th at Trials), and Chinese 17-year old Yiwen Shao.
Ashley Steenvoorden had a great season in 2011, winning the National Title in this race, but since then has been unable to get under 4:10 since. Her 2013, though, has been more stable and seen a whole lot more racing. Headed into last year’s World Championship trials, she had just three 400 freestyles on her docket. Going into this year’s World Championship Trials, she’ll be riding at least 10 races of the event so far this season.
There’s also Chelsea Chenault from the Terrapins out in Cali. She peaked a bit short of Trials last year (not a great swim there – 4:12), but recovered to do very well at the end of the summer at Jr. Pan Pacs. She’s surely capable of 4:07’s as well.
Chenault is part of a big group in this 400 free that weren’t on perfect swims at Trials last year , including Georgia’s Amber McDermott, Texas A&M’s Sarah Henry North Carolina’s Stephanie Peacock, and Cal’s Catherine Breed. All four have had health problems of varying degrees in the last year, with Henry perhaps making the best recovery (she was the fastest collegiate swimmer in the equivalent 500 yard free in the country this winter.)
Haley Anderson is another contender in this race who like Mann has also already qualified in open water. She’s the two-time NCAA defending champion in the 500 yard free, but didn’t put this middle-distance freestyle race together as well in long course last year as she did in the 800 or the 400 IM, going only 4:11.00.
Ultimately, this would seem to be a battle between Schmitt, Ledecky, and Sutton. Though all three have the potential for a bad meet (Ledecky is young, Schmitt and Sutton have each done so in the last year), on paper it’s hard to bet against the defending Olympic silver medalist Schmitt to at least qualify.
Among the other two, Ledecky looks like a freight-train that won’t slow down, and I think she actually gets the upset at Trials, though right now I’d peg Schmitt to finish ahead of her at Worlds. Ledecky will be able to go out with Schmitt, who likes to put away the competition early in this race.
I’d predict that Sutton will be faster than she was at Trials last year, and still perhaps miss the team in this event.
Those we have left out of our picks, either because of uncertainty of presence, or certainty of lack of presence: Kate Ziegler, Alyssa Anderson, Katie Hoff, Dagny Knutson.
Below are three sets of top 8 picks, including best times from January 1st, 2010 onward.
| Braden’s Picks | Morgan’s Picks | Matt & Reed’s Picks | |
| 1. | Katie Ledeck, NCAP, 4:04.30 | Katie Ledeck, NCAP, 4:04.30 | Katie Ledeck, NCAP, 4:04.30 |
| 2. | Allison Schmitt, NBAC/Georgia, 4:01.77 | Allison Schmitt, NBAC/Georgia, 4:01.77 | Allison Schmitt, NBAC/Georgia, 4:01.77 |
| 3. | Chloe Sutton, Mission Viejo, 4:04.18 | Chloe Sutton, Mission Viejo, 4:04.18 | Chloe Sutton, Mission Viejo, 4:04.18 |
| 4. | Gilian Ryan, NBAC, 4:07.26 | Gilian Ryan, NBAC, 4:07.26 | Becca Mann, Clearwater, 4:08.65 |
| 5. | Becca Mann, Clearwater, 4:08.65 | Leah Smith, JCC Sailfish, 4:07.10 | Elizabeth Beisel, Florida, 4:07.29 |
| 6. | Elizabeth Beisel, Florida, 4:07.29 | Elizabeth Beisel, Florida, 4:07.29 | Haley Anderson, USC, 4:10.29 |
| 7. | Leah Smith, JCC Sailfish, 4:07.10 | Becca Mann, Clearwater, 4:08.65 | Amber Mcdermott, Georgia, 4:08.93 |
| 8. | Ashley Steenvoorden, Minnesota, 4:07.63 | Chelsea Chenault, Terrapins Swim Team, 4:08.38 | Gilian Ryan, NBAC, 4:07.26 |
| Darkhorse: | Darkhorse: | Darkhorse: | |
| Maya DiRado, Stanford, 4:11.43 | Rachel Zilinskas, Germantown, 4:11.08 | Stephanie Peacock, UNC, 4:09.34 |
I don’t mean to be pessimistic; but I don’t think miss ledecky will get any WRs at trials; she can qualify for the team in the 400/800/1500/4×200 relay without a full taper b/c she is just leaps and bounds infront of everyone. But I really hope I’m wrong because she’s a superstar!
With that being said at worlds there is no doubt she will light it up. Would anyone be surprised if she got a WR in the 1500? I believe in Charlotte she was 16:04 with really bizarre splits (31s on direction and 33s the other). Only 22 seconds in that distance wouldn’t be too much with a swimmer of her caliber. Can’t wait to see what she… Read more »
I agree that this is one instance in which a teenage prodigy should go pro – the NCAA really does not favor distance swimmers, and she already has Olympic gold – but I don’t know that she should leave her team to go train with Bowman. She gets to sleep in her own bed at night, enjoy homecooked meals, be with her friends and family, and is still getting faster. I say as long as her new coaching situation is working, she should stick with it.
Also as far as switching team curl-burke, i mean the new nations capitol team has produced amazing swimmer year in and out and to leave doesnt make since.
Could definitely see her breaking WR in 1500. Bizarre in-season swim in Charlotte and her short course time is 15:28 which should convert well to long course, especially since Ledecky seems to be a stronger long course swimmer than short course. I pick Ledecky and Schmitt in 400. Ledecky and Mann in 800/1500.
Can anyone speak to the racing mentality of Muffat? It seems to me that she swims faster (timewise) during the year, and doesn’t have her best swims on the world stage. Not saying she isn’t a great racer (obviously she’s an Olympic champion), but she certainly seems to be affected by the field.
If Ledecky takes her 400 out in, say, 1:58+, is Muffat going to freak out?
Muffat can cer
Did you see the Mare Nostrum last year where Muffat tried splitting the 400 all different kinds of ways including going out in 1:58 and then in another stop going out in a 2:02 or 2:03 and coming back in a 1:58? I think she did that to show the world that no matter how you try to swim the race, she can keep up with you. It was gamesmanship. I still think Muffat has the upper hand, and I believe she could even win in a faster time than she went in London. The pressure is off of her. She’s already the Olympic champion. She can swim it any way she wants to and has nothing to lose. That’s… Read more »
You’re right – at the Mare Nostrum, where her competitors were 9 and 3 seconds behind. I guess what I mean is: yes, she showed us all the many ways she can play the game, but why didn’t she in London? Her 400 was very “normally” swum as she dueled with Schmitt the whole way. There wasn’t anything remarkable about the swim other than it was a good old-fashioned race.
In the 200, Schmitt ran away early on and Muffat appeared flustered, barely beating Palmer and Franklin. I say flustered based on the fact that she was 1 seconds off her pb.
My intention was not to pick on Muffat, but after reading another comment on Ledecky’s “disrespect” for… Read more »
Barratt* not Palmer
I think the reason she swam the 400 the way she did in London was because she knew that Allison was her main competition, so she was prepared to swim the race however she had to in order to beat her to the wall. The Mare Nostrum was just as much for her own confidence as it was to show the world, “No matter how you want to split this, I’m coming with you.”
I think if Allison had gone out in 1:58, Camille would have gone right after her. The way the race played out though, she only needed to go out in 1:59.5. It looked to me like she did whatever she had to do to make… Read more »
Muffat wouldn’t freak out at a 1.58 first 200m. She has more speed, and surprisingly, unlike Ledecky is a WR holder over the 800m distance 😉 haha
I have a hunch that ledecky could take it out faster than a 1:58; in her 800 she took it out in 1:59.9!!! I would not be surprised to see her out in 1:57 mid and back in a 2:01-2:02 high; I think we could see her break 4!! Fingers crossed
Amateurishly evaluated from the other side of the ocean I would go with the “Picks” as for the first position, that is to say Ledecky. As for 2nd entitlement, it is not settled at all. For me Schmitt’s 4:11.97, that she made at the end of May, was a suprise for sure. I waited something around 4:06 at least. I have no idea how she has been training during the season.
One medal is reserved for US in this event. I am not sure about the colour of that yet, but I do believe Ledecky is capable of under 4:02. I wouldn’t be suprised if under 4:01 is required to win a race. Pellegrini’s WR is safe though. According to… Read more »
When Schmidt swims with Bowman, she goes fast in season. When she doesn’t swim with Bowman, she has tended to go really slow in season and then go amazingly fast at taper time. Since she was at Georgia all year, I think she is on her previous trend, not last year’s trend. That being said, her 500 free at NCAA’s was somewhat disappointing. (As was her 200 free given her potential but at least she won that one.)
There is a reason why we have seen Ledecky at only one Grand Prix meet and that is because she is taking world trials and worlds very very seriously. I would love to know what her workouts have been like since we saw her last. I wouldn’t be surprised if she has her sights set on a 400-1500 triple for Barcelona. Will she swim the 200? Who knows. But right now I can guarantee her mindset is to blow the lid off of the rest of the swimmers worldwide.
I have predicted since last year for her a triple 400 free/800 free/1500 free. It will be tough but she can do it. The last time it has happened was in 2003 with Hannah Stockbauer in…BARCELONA! Good sign for Katie. She will have to beat Miss Muffat in the 400 free, the Catalan Mireia Belmonte at home in the 800 free and the machine Lotte Friis in the 1500 free. We can add to her schedule the 4X200 free relay and she will target 4 gold medals.
The incredible personality trait that Katie possesses is that she fears NO ONE. I remember her reaction after not making the Olympic team in the 400 free. It was anger. I remember her complete lack of respect towards the other finalists in the 800 final in London. She was going for the gold medal and NO ONE was going to get in her way. One year later….one year older….one year stronger and one year faster, Katie is going to put her stamp on the 400/800/1500 events and take ownership. The last time I saw anyone swim with this much disrespect towards her competitors was Janet Evans. Barcelona is going to be unbelievable for Katie and will set her up for… Read more »
I don’t think it is a trait of disrespect, it’s more of a strong mentality that Ledecky seems to possess in which she doesn’t care who she is in a heat with (for example, Adlington. WR holder, defending champ, hometown favorite). I think Ledecky will take the top spot in the 400, followed by Schmitt. I think Schmitt, Muffat, and Ledecky will be on podium in Barcelona (not necessarily that order). The depth in this event for the US team is promising after some years of inconsistency. Same thing on mens side of this event– Jaeger looks like he could challenge for a medal.
I don’t mean disrespect in that she spits in other people’s lanes a la Amy Van Dyken….but more along the lines that she fears no one and could really care less what your credentials are. It all happens in the pool right at that moment and Katie has no fear for your past accomplishments. But point well taken, SWIMSWIM.
although schmitt hasnt really excelled at 400 since london she her times have dropped over the few meets she has swam it. I understand the reluctance to pick her,since she was alot faster in season last year, but I think even if she goes a 4:04 maybe 4:03 she will be in and with her best being a 4:01 I would pick her for the two spot.
I bet Ledecky breaks that 800 WR in Indy. The 800 is the first night of the meet. I think she will win 400, 800, and 1500 in Indy. She will have greater challenge with 200, but she is probably only looking for a relay spot there ? Sutton is going to have a hard time making team with Schmitt and Ledecky, but Sutton could probably make team in 800 and 1500. I think it will take 4:03 to make team in 400 and I only see Ledecky and Schmitt getting there. Schmitt will make 200 and 400 free and 400 and 800 free relays.
800 is on the first night?
In that case, I think (and hope) she breaks the WR there.
Here’s the schedule.
http://www.usaswimming.org/_Rainbow/Documents/167935d6-e033-4b8f-bbb3-f2d12f49ef18/2013%20WC%20Trials%20Meet%20Info%205.6.13.pdf
How fast Ledecky goes in the 400 will depend on the US trials schedule.
Will she not swim also 200, 800 and 1,500?
But if she’s fresh for 400 she will be very scary fast.
My wish for ledecky in Barcelona is only one: break the 800 WR, because the older she gets, the more difficult it will be to break 800. The history of 800 WR holders are filled with 15-17 yo girls.
What’s the outlook on Ledecky and college swimming? Her London success and the calendar would seem to favor going pro after high school. She’d be able to make some money doing endorsements before the 2015 worlds, train for the Olympics, and go on a media blitz after the Olympics. Her brother’s at Harvard, so her family values education, but I’d guess she either goes pro directly after high school or swims in college for a year and turns pro after the 2016 Olympics.
Doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to go pro after the Olympics…mid bet she’ll either go to year before to maximize endorsements or extend college eligibility for another year or so after… Also, if she is not able to get her 200 down to a competitive level (all signs suggest that she will be able to and is already on her way) then that only leaves 500 and mile at ncaa’s, not so much incentive there… Similar to Kate Ziegler foregoing college
Um…Ledecky goes a 1:42 in the 200.
Based on the results and outcomes of Hoff/Ziegler/Knutson/etc. careers, I hope Ledecky will realize it is best to do NCAA. That being said, Ledecky already has times faster than NCAA records and most college team/pool records. Definitely going to be interesting to see what she decides. She has a bright future and I’m sure colleges will be fighting for her.
in saying that realize that I know at least Hoff still has crazy fast record compared to NCAA 4:30 5 free, 9:10 1000, although its not in the NCAA a very strong distance record that ledecky is not even that close too and, 15:24 in mile those would all be NCAA records…
I think it is the best for Katie Ledecky to go to Georgia. They have a great distance freestyle program there.
I made a mistake above-meant 2016 NCAAs rather than Olympics. You’re correct, it doesn’t make sense to go pro after the Olympics. If Ledecky wants to maximize endorsements, she probably goes pro in 2015 after finishing high school, especially if she sets a WR this Summer. Another option would be to train for a year after high school and enter college in 2016. She’d really have to want to swim in college to do that, but she could swim for 3 or 4 full seasons before going pro after the 2019/2020 NCAAs at the ripe old age of 22 or 23.
Missy’s pro window was at 17 before the Olympics or at 20 after two years of NCAAs. Katie’s got… Read more »
Watch out for Leah smith, junior PAN PAC champ last year.