The Magic Number
There’s plenty of projections around based on prelims placing, estimated scoring, etc. Most of them point to Cal with a handy win. But if you throw in diving (Victoria Ishimatsu is competing in the platform for USC) and the mile, the meet isn’t quite decided yet. We’ve developed a metric called the “magic number.” This is the number of points Cal has to score tonight before they can’t be caught by Georgia or USC. Remember that they enter the session with a 20.5 point lead over Georgia, and a 42-point lead over USC.
This projection assumes that Victoria Ishimatsu makes the A-final on the platform, Hannah Moore of Georgia makes the B-final, and we treat each heat of the mile as an “A” and “B” final, even though they’re combined timed finals. It also assumes no DQ’s, which is never a given. Here’s a few firm indicators that you can track tonight to know when the meet is about sealed up.
- To guarantee victory over USC, they need to score 100 points tonight.
- To guarantee victory over Georgia, they need to score 132 points tonight.
- Barring DQ’s, the fewest points Cal can score is 91. That assumes that every swimmer/relay finishes last in their final.
- Therefore, their magic number versus USC is 9 points.
- Also therefore, their magic number versus Georgia is 41 points.
**How to track these numbers tonight: For every position that Cal moves up off of minimum points, subtract how far they moved up from 41. For every point that Georgia moves down off of maximum points, subtract how far they moved down from 41. Once you hit 0, Cal only needs to avoid DQ’s to win. For example: in the 100 free, if Cal’s two A-finalists finish 4th and 5th, they’ve earned 6 more points than a 7th and 8th finish. Therefore, you subtract 6 points from the magic number. If Georgia’s two A-finalists finish 3rd and 4th, they’ve earned 6 fewer points than a 1st and 2nd finish, so you subtract 6 points from the magic number.
Make sense? Good. As you can see, Cal’s a pretty heavy favorite, but it’s not wrapped up. And of course, any DQ’s totally change the complexion of the meet.
…Wisconsin’s Maggie Meyer used a season-best mark in the 200 back of 1:51.56, and will enter finals in the poll position. She really went out hard in this race, and split a 53.8 on the first 100. Nobody else was faster than a 55.3. Second-seeded Dominique Bouchard from Missouri used a totally opposite strategy, as she went out in a 56.8, which was easily the slowest of the field. That will be an interest strategic battle in finals tonight.
The two other A-finalists besides Meyer who swam season bests, Cal’s Deborah Roth and Georgia’s Kelsey Gaid, will have a huge impact on the team battle. Gaid improved off of her 8th seed entering the day to sit 5th after prelims, and Roth wasn’t supposed to even B-final but moved all the way up to post the 6th-fastest time in prelims. Those two holding those positions will be vital.
There will also be two Florida Gators in the A-final, with Elizabeth Beisel looking for her 2nd medal (3rd-1:52.37) and Teresa Crippen looking for her 1st (4th-1:52.56). Cal also earned a B-finalist in 15th-seed Stephanie Au: who is another stud freshman backstroker for the Golden Bears. Cindy Tran, the 100 back champion, went out very hard but fell well off the pace on the second half. This is not a huge surprise for a swimmer who relies so much on her underwaters, and she failed to make either final…
…Auburn’s Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace now has 3 of the 4 fastest times in the history of the 100 yard freestyle, thanks to a 46.91 prelims time to take the top overall seed. If she has another big finals drop in her like she did in the 50 free, her 46.81 U.S. Open mark is in serious trouble in finals.
Stanford, who will be fighting tonight to hold on to 4th place, will have some help from Kate Dwelley in finals. She had the 2nd fastest mark in prelims at 47.62. 50 free bronze-medalist Margo Geer will be in lane 3 (47.70), followed by Liv Jensen (47.94). Georgia’s Morgan Scroggy did what she needed to make the A-final, but will be hoping for a medal as the defending runner-up. Georgia had two up (Romano and Scroggy) and 1 down (200/500 double champ Allison Schmitt). Cal matched that with 2 up and 1 down of their own, and USC did what they could to earn a single B-finalist in Kasey Carlson…
…Jillian Tyler took the 200 breaststroke out incredibly fast, and after a first 100 split of 1:00.6, you knew it was going to be a special swim. She touched the wall at 2:06.01, which is the 5th-fastest time in history (behind only 3 swims from Rebecca Soni and 1 from Tara Kirk). She’s had an incredibly emotional week, and if she can hold it together in finals, it’s going to be an awesome swim.
She’ll have to watch out for Cal’s Caitlin Leverenz, who has the 2nd overall seed in 2:07.26. She’s capable of a lot faster than that, as her swim from December’s USA-Swimming short course Nationals also gives her an entry on the all-time top 5 swimmers list.
Those two we knew about entering this meet. The 3rd overall seed, Breeja Larson from Texas A&M, we are just learning about, but will never again surprise us. She swam a 2:08.03 that is the 2nd-best time ever swum by a freshman (less than two-tenths off of the time Minnesota’s Haley Spencer swam at NCAA’s last year). She’s explosive, and has a good chance to hold this spot in finals. Texas’ Laura Sogar is also a contender. Though she barely snuck into the A-final (2:09.50), she lost her goggles early in the race. Assuming she corrects that problem prior to finals, she should be at a 2:07 easily.
Georgia and USC each have a swimmer in the b-final with Michelle McKeehan and Jessica Schmitt, respectively…
…This 200 fly would have been USC’s last stand in this meet. They were hoping to have as many as 4 or 5 scorers into tonight’s final of this race. Although Katinka Hosszu (1:53.22) and Lyndsay DePaul (1:54.22) did well to get the 2nd and 3rd seeds, it might not be enough. Cal’s Amanda Sims and Sara Isakovic both had huge drops to make the A-final, and Sims is actually the top seed in 1:53.17. Cal also matched USC with 1 swimmer in the B-final.
Taking the race outside of it’s team-scoring context, Sims’ time isn’t going to hold up in finals. We know that Hosszu is capable of a 1:51.0, and nothing in this meet thus far indicates that she won’t be at least at that point in finals. DePaul is also capable of going much faster, and Sims is going to have to dogfight to keep up with them. Another A&M freshman, Cammile Adams, has the 4th seed in 1:54.40, followed closely by Arizona’s Alyssa Anderson. Georgia didn’t have an entry in this race…
…Auburn decided to shift Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace over to the leadoff of their 400 free relay (which I think is a brilliant move, because she hasn’t historically been as great on anchors as she has off of flat-starts), and it worked beautifully. They posted a season-best mark of 3:12.30. The key split on that relay was a 47.59 in the second slot from senior Caitlin Geary. Arizona (3:12.77), Georgia (3:12.89) and Stanford (3;12.90) are right on their heels, and though Cal is well back (3:14.30) they can’t be counted out on any of these relays. Still, with how good Auburn looked this morning, I think they can hang on and win this tonight…