This year’s NCAA Championships was amazing. I know what you’re thinking: aren’t they all? The Fastest Short Course Meet in the World (TM) doesn’t often disappoint, and this year was far from that. It seemed that nearly every session had jaw dropping swims, from Morozov’s 17.8 to Kevin Cordes’ complete revision of what a good 200 breaststroke was (1:48? There were many teams at NCAAs that didn’t have an IMer that fast).Still, as I watched, all I could think about was what was coming. It should come as no surprise to readers of this website that there is something of a phenomenon going on in age group swimming at the moment. Swimming is a sport that has seen rapid change in times since it’s inception: the sectional qualifiers of today would have been Olympians in another era based on raw time. However, as time has passed it seemed the pace of improvement had slowed. As good as Morozov’s 17.8 was, many people on deck noted that it was more surprising that we hadn’t seen a 17. split yet with the number of swimmers that gotten to the 18 mid range over the years.
I think we are approaching a point where improvement at the top of events will continue at least at it’s current pace but that depth is actually going to improve faster. Not to harp on the 50 freestyle, but I think that needing only a 19.4 to make the A Final in that event will look like the Stone Age very, very soon. When so many 15-17 year old swimmers are going 19 in that event, with one 14 year old almost there, it’s not hard to envision that in four years you will need an 18 to make the A final.
I use sprinting as an example but it’s not the only one. The NAG record assault we’ve seen this year is totally unprecedented, and it will leave few events untouched once those swimmers reach college age. When Mike Barrowman won the NCAA Championships in the 200 Breaststroke with a 1:53.7 in 1990, it took over a decade for anyone to beat that time. In this case, I don’t see that happening, and not only because Cordes is just a sophomore. Swimmers are going fast enough at 15-17 that they could go sub 1:50 200 breaststrokes in college in the next few years and at least push Cordes.At this point, I feel it’s appropriate to address an important question: why is this happening? Why is improvement moving away from a slowing curve? Some attribute recent fast swims to the the suit era and the way it expanded swimmers’ notions of what was possible. I think there’s something to that explanation, but I don’t think it nearly covers it.
At the risk of sounding self-congratulatory, i think we owe this “talent” explosion to the increased proliferation of results and coverage via the internet. As recently as when I was an age grouper (1993-2000), if you were a good young swimmer you dominated local meets and that was it. For the most part, you had to wait until the Top 16 lists were released (far after your season was over) to see how you stacked up.
Now, age groupers are finding out about others in real time, at this website and through their own hounding searches through the ample live results resources. I believe this has compacted the amount of time between a jaw dropping swim and young swimmers adapting to the new reality of what is “fast”. Likewise, coaches are exchanging information in a way they never have before across some of these same platforms. This doesn’t even begin to address how much these developments have changed international swimming.
As I left this meet (and NCAA Swimming for a while), I couldn’t help but think of two things: how amazing it was and how amazing it will be. Couple that optimistic thought with the fact that University of Cincinnati is bringing back it’s scholarships, that’s a lot of optimism for college swimming. For the Fastest Short Course Meet in the World, it means we aren’t going to be changing that title anytime soon.
I have really enjoyed reading all these comments, and have found myself agreeing with virtually every one, even the contradicting ones! Younger swimmers are getting faster all over the world because of all the factors mentioned here by others, as well as the fact that they are training more. Where I am, in the UK, some clubs train their 9-10 year olds for up to 21 hrs/week. I think this is criminal. These kids produce phenomenal times until they are c. 12, and then they seem to disappear. This is where I agree with the poster who talked about swimmers peaking too early. By 12, these swimmers have given their best, and no coach, no matter how good, can get… Read more »
Technology has everything to do with the recent advances in the sport. Being able to see results from a swim meet across the country (or world) at the click of a button gives athletes insight as to what others are doing. No waiting, you can check results and get in the water for an inspired practice. Then we have video taping (just getting better and better) – this aspect is amazing. Underwater footage, stroke analysis, developing technique at a younger age. It still amazes me that their are coaches of age group swimmers (7-13 yrs) that think they need to build an aerobic base. Swimming 8,000 meters like crap (Old School) or swim 5,000 meters in perfect technique (New School),… Read more »
Adderall
I’m loving this discussion too. But I can’t believe nobody has made this observation yet.
If you claim real time results and the dissemination of information across the world is affecting performance and people’s behaviors, then couldn’t it just as easily affect how much we notice records being broken. Additionally, if swimming has grown in popularity then you would assume there are only more people observing and therefore creating more excitement.
Has anybody actually done a statistical analysis or is this all just anecdotal? Am I missing a study that is out there?
A very unscientific observation I made was comparing top-8 prelim swims from this year with top-8 prelim swims from 2010. All were faster (including relays) except in… Read more »
I think the way we train has a lot to do with the results. Coaches are asking swimmers to go nearer to race pace at practice more often. More is not better – better is better. Thoughts?
GC, “duh.” Unfortunately for the most part, few coaches still can’t seem to wrap their brains around this concept. The ones who have certainly have made the biggest strides of late in this sport.
I agree that floswimming was a game changer. It was the first site to broadcast every heat of a wide variety of meets. It transmitted an enormous amount of valuable information almost instantly. And everyone had access to it.
The Phelps effect can’t be overstated. The example he set instilled a different mindset and technical standard in a young generation, and we’re seeing the first wave come of age now. (These kids learned underwater dolphin kick as 8 year olds, not 18.)
But one factor that is overlooked is Ryan Lochte. Until he came along, everyone else was racing for second. He was the first (and only) guy to challenge Phelps head-on. And he had some success. No one else… Read more »
Great discussion. I’ve enjoyed reading the comments.
Here’s my input on a few things that I believe have added to the continued improvement.
1 – Immediate Results – As mentioned in the article, the immediate results factor is big. I always show my kids their current county, LSC and National Rankings. The bar is immediately raised. Swimmers who crush kids locally would never know how much higher the bar is out there without the immediate results. I and my kids are aware of all the rankings and other meets in the country. We always check and always compete virtually. They see that other kids there age are swimming faster. It’s a great reality check, can be used for motivation… Read more »
Not to belittle any of the new NAG’s, but I think a lot of the drop comes from kids hitting their peak earlier. I read a report a few months ago that the average age of puberty in girls (harder to tell with boys) is almost two years earlier than it was a few decades ago. Michael Phelps stands out not so much because he was crushing NAG’s early on, but because he kept dropping tons time from there. For example, Ricky Berens was probably the first guy to break a Phelps NAG (in the 200 fly), but he’ll probably never medal individually, let alone reach Phelps-level in a single event. Also, a guy like Michael Andrew is a lot… Read more »
When people talk about “peaking too early” they set the sport back 25 years. Peaking too early is just a nice way of saying the coach didn’t know how to make the swimmer better.
What Ben said, x1,000,000
Athletic ‘peak’ is late 20s. Fact.
scary to think by that rule phelps and spitz never performed their best at their peak
I agree – too many kids quit the sport because coaches told them that they couldn’t get better. A 16 year old girl I know loved swimming but quit after her coach told her that girls peak at 15, therefore, she wouldn’t get any better. This attitude kills me.
Yes I just read by chance a report on the earlier onset of puberty – which begins before we see the physical changes of course.
For American boys – Caucasian & Hispanic ( technically they are the same but creating new races is a growth industry ) the onset is down to 10 !
For girls it is 9.9 ! In 1860 it was 16.6.
This study was suggesting that these early onset kids were showing issues at Pre School.
Life is gettin too complicated!