University Aquatics Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota February 23-26, 2011
In 2010, Ohio State sent ooh’s and aah’s throughout the college swimming world when they pulled off the Big Ten Championship: their first in over 50 years. With all of the successes that Michigan had during the decade, it was only at the final moments that anybody saw Ohio State overcoming them. Not only that, but Ohio State overtook them in a huge way: winning by 145 points.
This year has been another banner year for the Buckeyes, and they have really built on last season’s success, including some top-notch times at USA-Swimming Short Course Nationals in December. Andrew Elliott’s 46.15 relay-leadoff in the 100 back stood as the nation’s top time for most of the season, and the breaststroke combination of Elliott Keefer and Justin Farra have torn up the Big Ten this season. And of course there’s Tim Phillips, who was awesome over the summer in the long course pool, but has thus far translated that into very good swims in the short course.
But despite a very good returning core, last year’s Big Ten Championship squad was a senior-heavy group. Ohio State graduated what amounted to well over 300 points at Big Ten’s.
But does Michigan have enough to take the crown back? Tyler Clary went pro, and Kyle Whitaker has been very good in his freshman campaign, but not (yet) Tyler Clary good. Daniel Madwed continues to be one of the best 200 butterfliers in the country, and is also going to be key for Michigan in the 200 freestyle. Michigan this year is relying on 20 freshmen to fill out their roster, and though they happen to be 20 really good freshmen, it’s unclear whether you can build the kind of depth that you need to win a meet like this on freshmen alone. Among the better of these freshman performers this season has been Kyle Duckitt, who already has a 54.6 100 breaststroke to his name this season.
And then there’s Minnesota. They don’t always leap off the page to people as one of the best teams in the Big Ten, but lest we forget: they’ve won half of the Big Ten Championships over the last decade. They’ve built great depth in the sprint freestyles, like defending 100-yard champ Michael Richards (44.03) and Curtis Carlson (44.07), but have gaping holes in the breaststroke and IM events.
These are the three teams to watch, but many of the conference’s best swimmers come from the second-tier teams. Michigan State’s Jacob Jarzen put up awesome times against stiff competition at the Georgia Tech invite, and seems to have a lot of drop still left in him. He’s a potential 40+ point scorer at NCAA’s, and will be in the hunt for the 100 back (47.8) and 100 fly (47.2) titles at Big Ten’s. Wisconsin’s Daniel Lester was very fast earlier in the season, and then replicated that success with a third-place finish at the Texas invite in the 200 fly (46.81) behind Ricky Berens and an Arizona swimmer. He is also a stiff IM’er, and will push, though probably not beat, Madwed in the 200 fly. Iowa’s Paul Gordon also falls into this category, and will be the top seed in the 200 free.
Diving
Despite being a down year for swimming in the Big Ten, they have bar-none the best diving in the country. This should really be no surprise given the level of coaching in the conference. Minnesota’s Wenbo Chen, Purdue’s Adam Soldati, Michigan’s KZ Li, and Indiana’s Jeff Huber have all served as U.S. National Team head coaches, and several other of the conference’s coaches, like Ohio State’s Vince Panzano, have received National Coach of the Year awards. The collection of coaches that exist in Big Ten diving is probably unlike that which any college conference in any sport in any era has ever collected.
Purdue will dominate diving in the scoring column. Led by the country’s best diver, David Boudia, they have a chance to go 1-2-3-4 in at least one discipline (the platform), and should have over half of the meets A-finalists all told. Amongst Michigan’s 20 freshmen are almost a complete turnover of their diving program. In Li’s first season in Ann Arbor, he managed to recruit 6 new divers (out of 7 total) and by all accounts they are very good, especially Jack Lee. It’s unfortunate that they’ve run into the Purdue juggernaut in their first campaign, but it’s also a great opportunity for them to compete with the best.
Minnesota’s star is senior Andrew Brown. Along with teammate Kristoffer Jorgensen, he has the best shot at breaking up the Purdue monopoly at the top of the standings. Ohio State was very strong on the boards last season, but this is another spot where they were hit hard by graduation: they lost roughly 130 points after last season.
Purdue’s lead in the diving is really only limited by how many roster spots they are willing to dedicate to it. They will probably have just shy of 200 points in the diving events, and I don’t expect anyone else to have much over 100. In the team battle, Ohio State and Michigan should be about even, with Minnesota about 30 points ahead.
Races to Watch
200 IM
If there’s an area where the Big Ten is loaded, it’s the IM’s. At this distance, Ohio State’s Justin Farra (1:45.30) has been the best this season, but behind him are Michigan’s Kyle Whitaker, who’s a beast in the 400, Indiana’s Eric Ress, and Wisconsin’s Daniel Lester. It was also be hard to count out Minnesota’s Alex Tyler and Michigan’s Neal Kennedy. Those two haven’t had great times yet this year, but they fooled everyone at last year’s Big Ten to take fourth and third, respectively. They have both been faster this year than they were entering last year’s Big Ten meet, and should be at least 1:44 low’s. Without a doubt, it’s going to take a 1:43 to win this race, and I like Kennedy’s odds of getting there first.
100 yard backstroke
Ohio State’s Andrew Elliott, who we discussed earlier, is the defending Big Ten champ in this event, but he will be pushed a lot harder this year (last year he won by 1.01 seconds). He went a very fast 46.15 earlier this season leading off the medley, but he was unable to come close to replicating that mark (even in the individual of the same meet). Enter Indiana’s Eric Ress, who redshirted last season to focus on duties as part of the French National Team. At French Nationals, he won the 200 backstroke and was third in the 100, where his long course mark of 54.62 ranked him 30th in the world. Whoever wins this race, I’d put my money on Ress, also announces himself as a National Championship contender in the event.
500 yard freestyle
There aren’t a lot of “names” in this race, but if you love watching a competitive 500 free, this is your race. The top 14 competitors all run between a 5:23.5 and a 5:25.8 in seed time. In layman’s terms, this means that the first and last finisher in the A-final of this race will probably be separated by about 5 feet. For a 500 free, that’s incredibly close. My money is on Michigan sophomore Hassan Abdel-Khalik, with Ohio State junior Brent Hitchcock in second.
Outlook
Ohio State’s going to win a lot of races, but under Bottom, Michigan always has the biggest time drops at Big Tens. I think that the Buckeyes’ losses to graduation are going to be too much to overcome, especially in diving, where they picked up a ton of points last year on the Wolverines. I like Michigan to get back on top of the conference this year, though I’d probably pick this order to be flipped at NCAA’s.
Minnesota should be in third, without much fear of moving up or down. Same story for Purdue in fourth, who is very solid in the relays but won’t score much in the individuals (besides their huge diving haul). Iowa is much improved, but Indiana still has too much depth in the freestyle and backstroke events to slide too far.
The last four are going to be a big cluster. I’ll take Wisconsin, on the grounds that they have the best individual swimmer out of the four, followed by Northwestern, Michigan State, and Penn State.
Expected Finish Order:
1. Michigan Wolverines
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Minnesota Golden Gophers
4. Purdue Boilermakers
5. Indiana Hoosiers
6. Iowa Hawkeyes
7. Wisconsin Badgers
8. Northwestern Wildcats
9. Michigan State Spartans
10. Penn State Nittany Lions