The NCAA swim season is upon us, and it’s time for a time-honored tradition: SwimSwam’s staff predicting NCAA event champions half a year out.
We polled SwimSwam staff for event predictions and compiled them below for a “composite” prediction of the most-predicted champions. A couple factors to keep in mind:
- While most of the major redshirts, gap years and Olympic deferrals have come to light in the past month, there will probably be a few more trickling in as meets start. We hope that doesn’t affect our picks, but very well could, especially on relays.
- We tried to weigh the focus various athletes would have on short course yards vs long course meters. One big factor, for example, are Canadian swimmers, who have their Olympic Trial meet very close to the NCAA Championships. That didn’t scare all of us away from Canadian athletes (Maggie MacNeil was still particularly hard for many to overlook), but it does have an impact on all of our predictions.
- Relays are especially tough to call, given the guesswork you have to do on four legs, usually with some freshmen, transfers or other new faces filling in for graduated seniors.
- This post makes a great place to compile your own picks – feel free to join the fun in the comment section!
2019-2020 NCAA Preseason Picks (finalized 9/18/2019)
**Starred** athletes are unanimous picks.
| Top Pick | Braden | Jared | Karl | James | Spencer | Reid | Andrew | Robert | Top Returning Swimmer | |
| 800 Free Relay | **Texas** | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas |
| 200 Free Relay | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Texas | Cal |
| 500 Free | Felix Auboeck, Michigan | Sean Grieshop, Cal | Felix Auboeck, Michigan | Sean Grieshop, Cal | Felix Auboeck, Michigan | Felix Auboeck, Cal | Sean Grieshop, Cal |
Felix Auboeck, Michigan | Brooks Fail, Arizona | Sean Grieshop, Cal |
| 200 IM | Pumputis/Casas/K.Smith (tie) | Jake Foster, Texas | Kieran Smith, Florida | Shaine Casas, Texas A&M | Caio Pumputis, Georgia Tech | Andrew Loy, Ohio State | Shaine Casas, Texas A&M |
Caio Pumputis, Georgia Tech | Kieran Smith, Florida | Caio Pumputis, Georgia Tech |
| 50 Free | Ryan Hoffer, Cal | Ryan Hoffer, Cal | Ryan Hoffer, Cal | Pawel Sendyk, Cal | Ryan Hoffer, Cal | Ryan Hoffer. Cal | Ryan Hoffer, Cal | Ryan Hoffer. Cal | Ryan Hoffer, Cal | Ryan Hoffer, Cal |
| 400 Medley Relay | **Cal** | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Indiana |
| 400 IM | Sean Grieshop, Cal | Sean Grieshop, Cal | Hugo Gonzalez, Cal | Charlie Swanson, Michigan | Sean Grieshop, Cal | Sean Grieshop, Cal | Sean Grieshop, Cal | Hugo Gonzalez, Cal | Sean Grieshop, Cal | Sean Grieshop, Cal |
| 100 Fly | Maxime Rooney, Texas | Coleman Stewart, NC State | Maxime Rooney, Texas | Maxime Rooney, Texas | Maxime Rooney, Texas | Maxime Rooney, Texas | Maxime Rooney, Texas |
Coleman Stewart, NC State | Coleman Stewart, NC State | Coleman Stewart, NC State |
| 200 Free | Drew Kibler, Texas | Drew Kibler, Texas | Drew Kibler, Texas | Drew Kibler, Texas | Drew Kibler, Texas | Drew Kibler, Texas | Drew Kibler, Texas | Paul DeLakis, Ohio State | Drew Kibler, Texas | Drew Kibler, Texas |
| 100 Breast | Max McHugh, Minnesota | Zane Backes, Indiana | Max McHugh, Minnesota | Max McHugh, Minnesota | Reece Whitley, Cal | Zane Backes, Indiana | Max McHugh, Minnesota |
Max McHugh, Minnesota |
Max McHugh, Minnesota |
Max McHugh, Minnesota |
| 100 Back | Coleman Stewart, NC State | Zane Waddell, Alabama | Coleman Stewart, NC State | Coleman Stewart, NC State | Coleman Stewart, NC State | Coleman Stewart, NC State | Coleman Stewart, NC State |
Coleman Stewart, NC State |
Coleman Stewart, NC State |
Coleman Stewart, NC State |
| 200 Medley Relay | **Cal** | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Alabama |
| 1650 Free | Bobby Finke, Florida | Sean Grieshop, Cal | Bobby Finke, Florida | Bobby Finke, Florida | Bobby Finke, Florida | Michael Brinegar, Indiana | Bobby Finke, Florida |
Bobby Finke, Florida |
Felix Auboeck, Michigan | Felix Auboeck, Michigan |
| 200 Back | **Austin Katz, Texas** | Austin Katz, Texas | Austin Katz, Texas | Austin Katz, Texas | Austin Katz, Texas | Austin Katz, Texas | Austin Katz, Texas |
Austin Katz, Texas | Austin Katz, Texas |
Austin Katz, Texas |
| 100 Free | Hoffer/Krueger (tie) | Ryan Hoffer, Cal | Ryan Hoffer, Cal | Daniel Krueger, Texas | Maxime Rooney, Texas | Ryan Hoffer, Cal | Maxime Rooney, Texas | Daniel Krueger, Texas | Daniel Krueger, Texas | Daniel Krueger, Texas |
| 200 Breast | Max McHugh, Minnesota | Caio Pumputis, Georgia Tech | Max McHugh, Minnesota | Max McHugh, Minnesota | Reece Whitley, Cal | Reece Whitley, Cal | Max McHugh, Minnesota |
Max McHugh, Minnesota |
Max McHugh, Minnesota |
Max McHugh, Minnesota |
| 200 Fly | Quah/Albiero (tie) | Nicolas Albiero, Louisville | Nicolas Albiero, Louisville | Trenton Julian, Cal | Zheng Quah, Cal | Maxime Rooney, Texas | Nicolas Albiero, Louisville | Zheng Quah, Cal | Zheng Quah, Cal | Zheng Quah, Cal |
| 400 Free Relay | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | Cal | Texas | Texas |
Previous Picks Revisited
Just for fun, we’re looking back at how our writers did the past two preseasons:
The half-score is for the 200 IM, where our consensus pick was a 4-4 tie between champion Abrahm Devine and Mark Szaranek.
| SwimSwam’s Top Pick | Braden | Jared | Karl | James | Spencer | Reid | Andrew | Robert | Lauren | Torrey | |
| 2019 | 11/18 | 10/18 | 6/18 | 10/18 | 9/18 | N/A | 7/18 | 10/18 | 10/18 | 6/18 | 10/18 |
| 2018 | 6.5/18 | 8/18 | 5/18 | 6/18 | 6/18 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5/18 | 5/18 | N/A |
In general, the men have been harder to predict than the women. Some wrinkles that tripped up our picks in past years: Dean Farris opting for (and winning) the 100 back instead of the 200 free, Townley Haas losing the 200 free after three straight titles and a year further back, John Shebat getting hurt for Texas and Joseph Schooling regressing in the 200 fly.
Rooney was a quality check against Hugo.
Texas’ now-sophomores need to see a similar curve that Cal saw with theirs last year in order to win.
UT freshman class really fills some holes on breast and IM. Very well rounded team in 2020
Joseph Schooling regressing in the 200 fly is an understatement
No cap
Brinegar is redshirting……I discovered it on a cool website called SwimSwam
Yeah. Swimswam doesn’t suck except for that Mel guy.
Such inappropriate language – my goodness. You opinions are getting rather crude.
It will be weird not having Dean at NCAAs this year
Is max McHugh returning this year?!
Hopefully
I think Reece is underrated here. Had a great LC 200 breast breaking 2:10 for the first time. I think he has the 200. Grieshop will be good as well.
If you removed the allowed dolphin kick on the breast pullouts, I think he would dominate the 200 SCY… but with it, I think it levels the playing field a bit and gives him way more competition.
No way Whitley wins the 200. #youhearditherefirst
I like Hoffer… but picking him to win 50 and 100 is a very long shot…. can I just throw my hat in the ring and say he wont win either?
He’s the top returner in the 50 free, and while he may not be quite as an overwhelming favorite over Sendyk as our picks make him out to be, it doesn’t feel like he’s a long shot, either. Who else do you think is likely to win?
Danny Krueger
Who got exactly as many winner votes in the 100 as Hoffer did. I don’t think it’s anywhere near a very bold call to have a 3-3 split between the top two returners from last year.
I will stay with Horns but I call Kibler over Krueger in 100 free.
I meant him in the 50 freestyle, sorry for not clarifying.
Yeah. 41.2 in HS. Not a chance at winning the 100 three years in to college.
No Andrew Abruzzo? His 400 free was just as good as those guys in long course. Will be a wild card come NCAA
Don’t sleep on Eric Knowles in the 500! Great summer and made the Nat Team in the 400 Fr. Kid just keeps getting better.