Fresh off of his Golden Goggles award for Male Swimmer of the Year, in an interview with ESPN Ryan Lochte gave the first firm indication of what events he would be swimming in Shanghai at the 2011 World Championship next June.
His individual events will be the 200 IM, the 400 IM, the 200 backstroke, and the 200 freestyle. Additionally, he will swim the 400 freestyle and 400 medley relays. Assuming that he only swims the finals of the relays, this comes to 13 total swims over 8 days.
There has been a lot of speculation about whether Lochte would run at Michael Phelps’ 8 gold medal total from Beijing: a feat that Phelps says he has no desire to chase again. Lochte, in his own words, has said that in London, he wants to swim as many events as is possible. While he has not ruled that out, he won’t try for it at World’s.
The big question in my mind isn’t whether or not Lochte can match Phelps’ 5 individual events. I think five wins are well within his grasp. The question I’ve had is whether or not backstroker Aaron Peirsol or freestyler Nathan Adrian will relinquish their spots on the 400 medley relay, as those are the only two conceivable spots that he could steal.
The big problem with him not being on a relay is that most individual races require three swims, albeit some skip semi-finals, while a relay only typically takes one. When we’re talking about the level of exertion it takes to be the best in the world, every extra swim takes a huge toll on the body.
Here’s a breakdown of what his schedule will look like, assuming he doesn’t swim the heats of the two relays.
Day 1-400 free relay Final (PM)
Day 2-200 free Heats (AM), 200 free Semis (PM)
Day 3-200 free Finals (PM)
Day 4-200 IM Heats (AM), 200 IM Semis (PM)
Day 5-200 back Heats (AM), 200 IM Finals (PM), 200 back Semis (PM)
Day 6-200 back Finals (PM), 800 free relay Final (PM)
Day 7-OFF
Day 8-400 IM Heats (AM), 400 IM Final (PM)
Overall, his swims are pretty well spread out. The toughest day will be Day 5, where he has five swims. Unfortunately, the toughest day comes on the same day as the 200 IM finals, where many pundits are putting the world’s best hopes at a World Record in 2011.
His only off day will be well placed on the 7th day, just in time for the 400 IM on the final day. Now that things are becoming a little clearer, the focus turns from what he will swim to whether he can pull off all six. The biggest challenge the Americans will face could be in the 400 free relay, where the French and Russians will put up formidable opposition.
Individually, the only event that Lochte didn’t finish atop the world rankings in last year was the 200 free, where Korea’s Tae Hwan Park bested his mark by exactly one half of a second. Germany’s Paul Biedermann will also be very much a factor in that race.
And let’s not sleep on the man formerly known as Michael Phelps. Despite speculation that he might have lost the passion to compete at an elite level, it’s very possible that he will have something to say about both the 200 free and 200 IM. (Of course, he could decide to focus his efforts on the two butterfly events and three relays instead, which I see as a distinct possibility, but speculation on Mr. Phelps is another story for another post).
Lochte says he’s prepared for 6. He did it at Pan Pacs, so he knows how hard it’s going to be, and he feels confident that he can pull it off just like he did in Irvine.
“His individual events will be the 200 IM, the 400 IM, the 200 backstroke, and the 400 backstroke.”
You mean 400 free?
Not sure How I missed so badly on that one…should actually be 200 free. Thanks for the heads up–Braden
No way Lochte is a prelims-only relay guy. The value he provides there over having someone else do it, with how many great backstrokers there are in the US, it’s just not worth it.
The 100 back and 400 free are the obvious candidates. I think he’d have a better shot at the 100. LaCourte is incredible in that right now, but we’ve gotta remember that despite being so awesome at Pan Pacs, Lochte still missed a huge chunk of 2010 training with injuries. I can’t WAIT to see what kind of times he puts up at World’s
Lochte’s fly only not convincing because he proceeded to fade, and he had obviously gone out a bit too fast. That said, he did back off. I can’t imagine him doing fly anyway. That said, I’m not convinced about Lacourt anyway. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Peirsol won it at Worlds, and if the schedule works, Lochte (or any American) in 2012. Peirsol could go 52-low (knowing him, dare I say 51?), and Lacourt could go 53-mid. Not really a given yet. No, winning four could not be considered shocking, and they can maybe make room on the medley haha. 200 free will be the tricky one, and the others he’s favored in, but you never know with… Read more »
Oh, and Lochte can get a medley relay medal without swimming finals. It’s a very probably scenario in my opinion that the coaches would put him in the 100m back spot in the morning even if he doesn’t swim it individually. He brings it for relays, has more international experience, and is arguably just as fast as the other guys likely to take the second spot in ’12 (Plummer, Thoman, Grevers). People still count Phelps’ Athens medley relay medal even though he gave up his night spot to Crocker.
One of these days, France will get things together and put up a monster free relay. They’ve got a foursome that, on paper, should rival anyone in the world. It’s still a mystery to me why they fall apart in the relays. Hopefully Lezak has a few more years of magic in him…
France? Winning the 400 free relay? Like they did this summer, last summer, and the summer before? Oh wait…
Medley relay will be tough for him to get onto. Adrian will be much better than he was this year, and so will Peirsol. It will be effectively comparing Peirsol’s 100 with Lochte’s 200. In fact, I would recommend swim-offs before the meet starts to help determine finals relay line-ups. For example, maybe Shanteau will be America’s top 100 breaststroker next year (a strong possibility). If he is, use him on the medley relay, and it’s the same with Lochte. I see Phelps’ (obviously) and Adrian’s spots as pretty untouchable right now.