2018 PAN PACIFIC CHAMPIONSHIPS
- Thursday, August 9th – Sunday, August 12th
- Tatsumi International Swim Center, Tokyo, Japan
- LCM
- Meet Central
- Psych Sheets
With USA Swimming selecting its 2019 World Championships roster based on combined results of 2018 Nationals and 2018 Pan Pacs, this week’s Pan Pacific Championships’ meet-within-a-meet will be the competition between U.S. swimmers for top-2 billing in each event.
We’ve broken down the very likely changes to the current projected Worlds roster, along with some potential and longshot changes below:
Very Likely
Katie Ledecky/Leah Smith, 1500 free
Current top 2:
- Ashley Twichell – 15:55.68
- Ally McHugh – 16:02.56
Ledecky is all but a lock to earn one of the two spots – she did break the world record in this event three months ago. Smith was 16:01.02 last year, so that time would get her by McHugh but not by Twichell: if Ledecky swims it (very likely), Smith will need a drop to earn a Worlds bid.
Caeleb Dressel, 100 free
Current top 6:
- Blake Pieroni, 48.08
- Nathan Adrian, 48.25
- Townley Haas, 48.30
- Zach Apple, 48.34
- Michael Chadwick, 48.44
- Caeleb Dressel, 48.50
The reigning world champ was just 6th in a lackluster Nationals, but the good news is that he only needs to cut about a half-second (still well off his 2017 best) to pass the entire field. A swim closer to his 47.1 from last summer would easily put him back on top. The top 2 will swim individually at Worlds, the top 4 likely on the finals relay and the top 6 will probably get at least a prelims relay swim.
Potential
Jack Conger, 200 fly
Current top 2:
- Justin Wright, 1:54.63
- Zach Harting, 1:55.11
Conger struggled in most of his best events at Nationals, but if he can return to his 1:54.4 form from last summer, he should pass Wright and Harting, who had huge breakout swims in Irvine.
Townley Haas, 200 free
Current top 6:
- Andrew Seliskar, 1:45.70
- Blake Pieroni, 1:45.93
- Conor Dwyer, 1:46.08
- Townley Haas, 1:46.15
Haas won silver at Worlds last summer but couldn’t crack the top 3 at Nationals. If he gets back to 1:45.03 range, which he did twice last summer, he’ll shuffle up the individual and relay entries for 2019 Worlds.
Leah Smith/Mallory Comerford, 200 free
Current top 6:
- Katie Ledecky, 1:54.60
- Allison Schmitt, 1:55.82
- Gabby Deloof, 1:56.55
- Leah Smith, 1:56.93
- Simone Manuel, 1:57.01
- Melanie Margalis, 1:57.32
Smith was the second-fastest American at 1:55.97 last summer and will now have to challenge a resurgent Schmitt for the last individual spot behind Ledecky. Comerford is currently outside even a relay spot in this event (though she’s into Worlds in the 100) and needs to better her 1:56.95 from last year to get into that mix.
Justin Ress, 100 back
Current top 2:
- Ryan Murphy, 52.51
- Matt Grevers, 52.55
The men’s backstrokes are never settled until they’re settled. In 2015, Grevers and Murphy held the top two spots until David Plummer passed Murphy for the Worlds spot in the Pan Pacs final. Now it’s Ress trying to do the same, though he’ll have to significantly better his lifetime-best 53.26.
Regan Smith, 100 back
Current top 2:
- Kathleen Baker, 58.00
- Olivia Smoliga, 58.75
The 16-year-old Smith tied for the 200 back title and broke a world junior record in this race, but still found herself on the outside for Worlds. Smith (58.83) is right on the heels of Smoliga, though, and could easily snag the second spot in Tokyo, though she’s entered in a pretty brutal event lineup (100/200 back, 100/200 fly, 200 free) compared to Smoliga (100/200 back, 50 free).
Margo Geer 50 free
Current top 2:
- Simone Manuel, 24.10
- Abbey Weitzeil, 24.63
Geer (24.79) was a tenth away from unseating Weitzeil for second at Nationals, and Geer didn’t even swim a best time. She was 24.72 in May, and only needs a little more speed to fight for the second Worlds spot in Tokyo.
Leah Smith/Melanie Margalis, 400 IM
Current top 2:
- Ally McHugh, 4:34.80
- Brooke Forde, 4:35.09
Smith was the national champ last summer in a time (4:33.86) that would have won this year’s title by about a second. She’s got a great shot to make the top two, though she’s got a punishing slate of events (200/400/800/1500 free, 400 IM). Margalis is a longer shot – the vet was a lifetime-best 4:35.50 at Nationals and needs to drop even more (not to mention beat Forde and potentially McHugh if Smith does indeed move to #1) to be in the mix, and some of her interviews earlier this year suggested she’s not all-in on this event.
Micah Sumrall, 100 breast
Current top 2:
- Lilly King, 1:05.36
- Katie Meili, 1:06.19
Sumrall, the blowout 200 champ, was just two tenths behind Meili at Nationals in the 100 and should put up a good fight for the second Worlds spot, though she’s already fairly locked in in the 200.
Lilly King, 200 breast
Current top 2:
- Micah Sumrall, 2:22.06
- Bethany Galat, 2:23.32
King was only 2:25 at Nationals, but didn’t appear fully rested. She was 2:21.83 this summer and has spoken openly about her 2018 focus on bringing her 200 to the world-beating levels of her 100 and 50.
Outside Chances
There are a whole bunch more who could unseat a top 2, top 4 or top 6 spot, but will need very good swims. We’ve put together a non-exhaustive list of some of those swims below:
Men’s 50 free
- Nathan Adrian
Men’s 200 free
- Jack Conger (for finals relay/individual spot)
- Caeleb Dressel
- Zach Apple
Men’s 400 free
Men’s 800 free
- Robert Finke
Men’s 1500 free
- Zane Grothe
Men’s 200 back
- Austin Katz
Men’s 100 fly
- Michael Andrew
Men’s 200 fly
- Chase Kalisz
Men’s 200 IM
- Andrew Seliskar
Men’s 400 IM
- Sean Grieshop
Women’s 100 free
- Margo Geer
- Abbey Weitzeil
Women’s 200 free
- Gabby Deloof (for individual spot)
Women’s 100 fly
Women’s 200 fly
- Regan Smith
- Ella Eastin
Women’s 200 IM
- Ella Eastin
Women’s 400 IM
- Ella Eastin
Is it still possible for Dressel to swim the 50 fly at worlds? If yes, what does he need to do?
Needs to have the fastest 100 fly out of everyone.
Jack Levant
Would be hard for him to pull that off, since he’s not on the team.
Can you use a prelim time to qualify through a relay spot, or do only the top 3 Americans in the prelims have a chance?
4 swimmers can go to finals. 2 in A and 2 in B.
No, 2 in A and 1 in B
I was under the impression it was 2 As and 1 B as well, but just noticed in meet documents this morning that 2 can swim the A and 2 the B. That could have a big impact on these relay selections.
Even though I’m not sure it will have any real impact, meet info says if B heat has empty lanes they will take extra swimmers past 2 per country, but won’t count for Pan Pac points. I think only 4IM had less than 16 swimmers.
From 5.5 of the meet info:
“If a country has two (2) athletes in the A Final, that country may also qualify two (2) additional athletes to the B Final”
I had also seen Australia mention something about 2 in B final a day or two ago so went to look it up as I had originally heard 1.
In this discussion of who will possibly try to get selected for WC at PP if this target wasn’t achieved or was postponed at Nationals it is worth to mention that there is a case when a swimmer has a real chance to be selected but has chosen not to.
‘PK DOESN’T LIKE HIS LONG NAME’ provided already some reasoning of why Ledecky is not competing for the spot in 4×100 free relay but it still looks strange to me. If she decided to not have this event in her WC program then what was the reason to compete in 100free at Nationals? This event was the only one that required her to be tapered and she definitely wasn’t… Read more »
Everybody sleeping on Katie Meili
Aren’t we doing the opposite of that? She’s already slotted onto the team currently, she’s not doing the 200 breast, and she needs to fend off Sumrall in the 100 breast, who went a best time last week that wasn’t fast enough to beat the bar that Meili laid out there. I’m not quite sure how we’re sleeping on her when in the context of this article she’s a pretty large favorite to keep her spot on the team.
PK – “sleeping on so-and-so” has become the trendy phrase that shows up in our comment section about two or three times a day. As best as I can tell, it roughly translates to “I think this person will swim fast, but I’m not confident enough to make a hard prediction that could turn out to be wrong.” 🙂
Agree that there’s nothing in this story that should be considered even remotely a slight to Meili.
For Leah Smith it comes down to what she wants to swim with her 200fr/400IM/1500 triple. I can’t see here swimming all of them. She’s not currently in the top 2 for any of them but I have a hard time not seeing her make whatever she decides to swim.
Why would she sacrificed 400I’m for the sake of individual 200 free where she doesn’t have even remote chances to be on the podium at WC. She may not even make the final there. 4:33 from last year is a very respectful time in 400I’m especially if to remember that competition in this event is in stagnation now.
400I’m goes immediately after 200 free . And that is after having 800 in the same session. Her #2 position in 800 is not secured at all so she has to swim it and to swim seriously. I think that she will skip 200.
200 is a sure relay medal. Best to stay in the top 2 or 3 in the USA so your spot is not questioned. The 400 IM could look a lot different in 2020
Do you think that Americans have three more 1:56 mid swimmers who will push Smith out of relay list? I think it is less likely scenario then her 8:22 time gets beaten in 800. The competition at 800 is becomes much stronger then in 400IM. It would be interesting if Leah will focus on 400 free, 400IM in 2020. Anyway the risk of losing relay spot is less probable then risk of not being selected for 800 and 400IM. Moreover, the opportunity to swim relay next year will still exist even if she doesn’t pass selection criteria this year. If she swims fast she will make relay team by coaches’ decision.
Smith and Eastin scratched the 400 IM
If it comes down to it, if Leah Smith on the worlds team can credibly throw down a 1:55 or faster, the coaches will find a way to work her onto the 4×200, whether she technically qualified or not. If in summer 2019 Leah is 1:56 hi or above, the 200 won’t be a focus for her, relay or otherwise.
Corrections:
Devine is not entered in 4IM.
Prenot is not entered in 2IM (but Dressel is 🙂
Grothe has a solid chance to get into the 1500.
Kalisz may expand his lineup – doubt we saw his fastest at nats.
Leah Smith is entered in 200fr, 800fr, 400IM all on the first day. If she does that triple, she might get sued for breaking Hosszu’s “Iron Lady” trademark.
Q: If Baker decides she wants to focus on bk at worlds, would that bump Eastin into the 2 IM?
I think it’s unlikely that Baker would choose to not swim the 200 IM-assuming the same schedule as the last worlds, the 100 back semifinals occur before the 200 IM final, and that’s the only conflict in a 50/100/200 back and 200 IM schedule.
What’s with the 4:15 400IM on the women’s psyche sheet?