Over the next few weeks, as the Long Course season closes out, new freshman are arriving on campus, and fans everywhere ramp up for another exciting NCAA Season, we will be running a team-by-team preview of the upcoming NCAA season. Starting with the no.12 teams and finishing with the defending National Championships (Texas men and Florida women) we will work our way down the top finishers from last year’s NCAA teams, and will also jump into some rising teams that we expect to break into the top tier this season. Click here to see the other men’s previews, and click here to see all of the previews for both Men and Women.
Key Losses: John Azar (4 NCAA relays), Eric Olesen (3 NCAA relays), Simon Norstedt (Number 2 Breaststroker)
Key Additions: Nathan Hart (fly, IM), Jonathan Buerger (middle distance free), Jon Daniec (free/IM), Parker Camp (free/back), Patrick Sullivan (sprint free), Bradley Phillips (mid distance free), Cody Brunette (fly IM), Taylor Grey (breast)
2010 Season Recap: The Virginia Cavaliers are quietly one of the strongest programs in the country. They usually finish in the top 10 in the nation, including last season when they were exactly 10th. Like we saw with no. 12 Texas A&M, Virginia makes a living off of their relays. 96 out of the teams 123 points at NCAA’s were scored by their 5 relays.
The rest of the scoring was done by Virginia’s two studs, Matt McLean and Scot Robison. These two are the thunder and lightning of the Virginia squad. The 6’6 McLean finished 10th in the 500 free and just outside of the scoring at 19th in the 200 free. Robison, at 5’10, finished 4th in the 200 free and 12th in the 100 free at NCAAs.
Thunder and Lightning: While both swimmers are “known” so-to-speak, they are both underrated, probably because they swim in the relatively weak ACC. But Robison and Mclean are both poised to make a huge impression on the national swimming community after a great long course season. The two finished 8th and 7th, respectively, at US Nationals in August in the 200 free. McLean also made the A-final and finished 8th in the 500 free, and Robison was 6th in the 100 free. These finish positions make them serious contenders for relay spots at the 2011 World Championships and 2012 London Olympics.
But first, they both have to finish their collegiate careers. They alone should score at least 50 individual points, and will both be a part of a killer 800 free relay that was 4th last year and will be looking to move up onto the medal podium this season.
Disappearing Depth: Coming in to this season, breaststroke appeared as though it would be an area of huge strength for Virginia. They had two freshmen, Tom Casey and Simon Norstedt, go 54.2’s at the ACC Championships to place 3rd and 4th. Only Casey returned for his sophomore season. Norstedt, who hails from Denmark, is no longer on the Virginia roster and seems to have disappeared from the swimming scene, as a Google search and scouring of the Denmark Swimming website gives no hints as to why. Combined with the graduation of ACC 200 breaststroke bronze medalist John Azar, who we’ll discuss further in a second, the Cavaliers lost two out of their three best breaststrokers from last season.
Probably not anticipating the exodus of Norstedt, the coaches only brought in one breaststroker (56.6 second Taylor Grey), which leaves them a little thinner here than they probably anticipated.
Impact Junior: Junior Peter Geissinger was on the verge of breaking into the B-final at last year’s NCAA with a 43.46 100 free, and was the runner-up in the 50 at the ACC Championships. He should be the third wheel on the powerful Virginia freestyle vehicle this season.
Departed Seniors: Virginia will have to replace 2 outstanding relay swimmers off of last year’s squad: Azar and Eric Olesen. Both just missed scoring in individual events, but were very important to the relays that scored so many of the Cavs’ points. Azar anchored two out of the four relays he swam on, and Olesen, who is the 100 back school record holder, swam the backstroke leg of both medleys.
Backstroke Backup: The Virginia coaching staff has done a great job preparing for Olesen’s departure. They have a very impressive group of underclassmen backstrokers. Sophomore Matt Murray and junior David Wren have gone 48.3 and 48.2, respectively, while at Virginia, although last season Murray was much faster at the ACC Championships (48.37-49.04). Murray is probably the favorite to take over the brunt of the backstroke work on the relays, but both will make an impact in dual meets and the ACC Championships in individual events.
Brady’s Back: The darkhorse candidate in all of this is Brady Fox. That name should sound very familiar to those who closely follow high school swimming, as Fox was a 5-star recruit coming out of Georgetown Prep in Maryland. He was heralded as one of the future backstroke stars of USA-Swimming after breaking a NAG record in the 200 back and qualifying for the U.S. Junior National Team. Fox swam a 56.69 LCM at the 2008 Olympic Trials, which converts to a 47-low in yards, when he was only 17 years old.
Prior to his freshman year at Virginia in 2009-2010, however, Fox was diagnosed with a rare degenerative disk condition in his back. This caused him to be out of the water for a ton of time, and he missed his entire freshman season. The sophomore, who also excels in fly and free, spent the summer getting back to a normal full training routine. He was able to get his 100 LCM back time under a minute (49 high converted) and his 200 LCM time down to a 2:05 (1:46.5 converted), and it will be interesting to see if or when his speed returns after a prolonged break from the pool.
Relay Holes to be Filled: The Cavs are less prepared, however, to fill Azar’s relay spots. They only have two returning swimmers who were under 21 in the 50 free (Robison and Geissinger), under 46 seconds in the 100 free (Robison and Geissinger), and under 1:36.7 in the 200 free (Robison and McLean). It will be up to a very strong freshman class to fill that extra spot on the free relays.
Hart Tops of the New Guys: Leading that freshman group will be Nathan Hart, the top ranked recruit out of North Carolina. Hart’s best butterfly time (49.18 in textile) will jump him into the second-fastest butterflier spot on the team behind Geissinger and Robison, though the latter rarely swims it. His 200 fly is even more impressive, with a textile best time of 1:46.61, which would’ve placed in the top 30 at NCAA’s last year.
Hart is also very good in the IM events, where he has textile bests of 1:49.03/3:43.78, both of which were below the NCAA “B” cut line in 2010, and a 1:38 in the 200 free, which is very fast for a high schooler. Perhaps most exciting is that, unlike many of his peers, Hart continued to make rapid improvements even after the rubber suits went away.
Best in Class: The Caveliers also grabbed a trio of other swimmers who were top-ranked in their states: Jonathan Buerger (Pennsylvania), Cody Brunette (Alaska), and Taylor Grey (Vermont). Taking the top recruit in even a small state (this class has four in total) gives a program great credibility with future recruits in those states, which from time to time put out some real super star swimmers (think Ian Crocker from Maine).
Out of the three, Buerger will have the biggest immediate impact on the national level, and has the inside track on taking most of Azar’s aforementioned relay spots. He has gone a 20.93 best in the 50 free, and a 46.10 100 (which he swam midseason as a junior). Buerger is even better in the middle-distances, with a 1:38.05 200 free and a 4:24 500 free.
Cody Brunette, coming out of Alaska, doesn’t get as much hype as some of the others in this class, but has a ton of potential. His 49.19 in the 100 fly is almost identical to Hart’s, and he went a 21.42 50 free, both in November of his junior year. He seems to have hit a plateau last season, but is one of the best high school swimmers to ever come out of his state. Once he gets to campus, I expect his times to drop, and drop hard.
Jon Daniec out of California gets better as the distances get longer, with a 1:38.29 200 free, 4:22 500 free, and 15:19 mile. Brad Phillips is also very good in the middle distance guy, going sub-1:40 in the 200 free and a 4:25 in the 500 free.
Salvaged Sprinter: Patrick Sullivan, a local swimmer out of Alexandria, Virginia, was a bit of a surprise addition for Virginia. The sprinter, who has plenty of room to fill out his 6’4 frame, was committed to swim for UC-Irvine before that program was cut in the summer of 2009. Their loss was the Cav’s gain. In his year off from college swimming, Sullivan went a 20.52 in the 50 free in textile as well as a 46.28 in the 100. As he continues to fill out, he will definitely be a huge part of Virginia’s relay plans.
Weak on the Boards: The Cavaliers’ biggest weak spot is diving. Last year, they had only one diver make top 8 at the ACC Championships in any event—junior Briggy Imbriglia placed 8th on the platform—and they didn’t bring in any new divers this year. The rest of the ACC is gaining on the 3-time defending Champs, and divers score a ton of points relative to the number of roster spots they use. This could be a big factor in coming seasons.
Season Prognosis: Scot Robison and Matt McLean will be locked and loaded for their final season in college, and will be emotional leaders for this team. The problem is that the teams nipping at their heals, Texas A&M and USC, added more swimmers who will have an immediate impact on their programs, and have much higher scoring potential in the diving events. It’s going to be a battle for Virginia to stay in the top 10; not because they’re going to be significantly worse (they won’t), but because their competition will be significantly better.
There are a lot of big question marks on this team. If they are all answered positively, Virginia scores another top 10 finish. If not, they could slide back as low as 12th.