SwimSwam superfans Reed Shimberg and Matt Salzberg were on the calculators again, coming up with the “faster than seed” statistics again for day 4 prelims at the 2012 U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials.
The picture was a little better than it was on day 3, with a gruesome 25.6% of the 425 morning swims coming up short of their entry times. That’s as compared to the 23.4% that we saw on Wednesday.
The “bright spot” was the men’s 200 breaststroke, where we saw better swimming in the early heats (Brendan McHugh was a 2:13.87 in heat 4 to hang on for a semi-final berth, as a notable example). But even there, just over a third of the swims were best-times.
Men’s 100 Free
46/165 were best times (27.8%)
57 didn’t make the cut.
62 were slower but made the cut.
24 in the circle-seeded heats were slower than seed.
Women’s 200 Fly
19/131 were best times (14.5%)
69 didn’t make the cut.
43 were slower but made the cut.
24 in the circle seeded were slower than seed.
Men’s 200 Breast
44/129 were best times (34.1%)
45 didn’t make the cut.
40 were slower but made the cut.
18 in the circle seeded were slower than seed.
I meant high tech suit times and records………….
Take away the high tech records and times and it shows that swimmers are not a whole lot faster than they were 20 years ago.
50m freestyle 1992.. Only Popov sub-22.. now 13 guys till now..
100m freestyle 1992 Popov 49.02
Today it would be around 40 45th best time of the world.
If you see breast the difference is more amazing Diebel gold time 1992 would not be enough for FINA CUT this year.. just as a little example
Are any of these athletes staying at the Homewood Suites? They served some mean biscuits and gravy this morning that were delicious–but no one is swimming PBs after those Bs & G.
LOL
how do these stats compare to prior trials?
How about the December Nat meets being long course in 2014 and that being the start of the qualifying window? That gives about 18 months and many people capable of qualifying would be at those meets and more beyond that. May help keep numbers manageable with the addition of tighter standards.
Great data points — keep them coming. Any theories for why the times are slow?
Good point about Brendan McHugh making semis in 200 breast — he dropped nearly six seconds from his seeded time! Is he the lowest seed of the meet to make a semifinal?
Saw a first of the meet in 200 breast — a guy who wasn’t wearing a cap.
Also worth noting that one 200 fly swimmer Wednesday morning went nearly 12 seconds slower than her seeded time. Ugh.
Why the Ugh? Stuff is going to happen to people for one reason or another. She probably came to experience the meet. I know that if I ever had the opportunity to swim at Trials I would take full advantage it.
A buddy of mine swam for tx and got his trial cut for 08, he had quit competing by early 07 and when trials came, he practiced for a month, went to the meet and loved every minute of it. He wasnt slow poke rodriguez, but sucked it up….lol. Its almost a badge of honor! I woulda shown up, all 20 extra punds, wore a speedo and get in phelps’ warm up lane. Yeah, im that guy…. and so are u! Lol
The best thing that USA swimming can do to improve this statistic is to shorten the qualifying period. The qualifying period for this meet started 2.5 years ago. I’m sure there are plenty of people competing this year who qualified shortly after the beginning of the qualifying period and haven’t been training seriously since, and just came to experience the meet.
This!
Totally agree with you.