With mid-season invites behind us, we can use SwimSwam’s Swimulator tool to predict scoring at Nationals (or any conference meet, for that matter!).
For this simulation, we’re plugging in swimmers’ top times through December 4th to predict scoring outcome at the Division III NCAA Championship in March.
For Division III only, note that the women’s entry cap is increasing by about 25%.
When evaluating the simulation, you have to take into account that it is based off of top times this season. While some teams tapered and competed at mid-season invites, others swam through first semester with nothing but regular dual meets (like Williams, which is traditionally a strong program, but falls fairly low on the women’s side and falls off the men’s simulation entirely).
The simulation predicts the following:
| Women | Men | ||
| Kenyon | 648 | Denison | 548 |
| Emory | 548 | Kenyon | 514 |
| Denison | 418 | Emory | 381 |
| Johns Hopkins | 266 | Johns Hopkins | 365 |
| MIT | 208 | MIT | 312 |
| Chicago | 176 | NYU | 232 |
| NYU | 170 | Chicago | 206 |
| CMU | 129 | Wash U. MO | 191 |
| Calvin | 117 | UW-Stevens Point | 141 |
| Wash U. MO | 85 | Calvin | 104 |
| Case Western | 73 | CMU | 67 |
| Trinity U. | 65 | Pomona-Pitzer | 66 |
| W&L | 58 | Tufts | 47 |
| Pomona-Pitzer | 52 | BSC | 44 |
| Claremont MS | 45 | DePauw | 42 |
| Whittier | 45 | Claremont MS | 40 |
| Montclair St. | 40 | TCNJ | 28 |
| Franklin | 34 | Whittier | 23 |
| L&C | 34 | SUNY New Paltz | 21 |
| Grove City | 33 | Rensselaer | 20 |
| Tufts | 33 | Worcester Poly | 20 |
| Whitworth | 32 | Rowan | 20 |
| St. Thomas | 30 | F&M | 15 |
| Whitman | 30 | Wheaton IL | 15 |
| Hope College | 24 | Mary Washington | 14 |
| Gustavus | 18 | Westminster | 14 |
| Centre College | 18 | Frostburg St. | 13 |
| Drew | 16 | Saint Vincent | 13 |
| Rensselaer | 15 | Carthage | 12 |
| Simmons | 13 | Whitworth | 6 |
| Wheaton IL | 12 | Gettysburg | 6 |
| Rhodes | 10 | Grove City | 5 |
| UW-Whitewater | 10 | Trinity U. | 5 |
| Stevens | 8 | SUNY Geneseo | 4 |
| Carthage | 8 | Bowdoin | 4 |
| Williams | 6 | Rose-Hulman | 2 |
| DePauw | 6 | Loras | 2 |
| Pacific Lutheran | 6 | Buffalo St. | 1 |
| Wilmington C. | 5 | Stevens | 1 |
| Mary Washington | 5 | Rhodes | 1 |
| Mount Union | 4 | ||
| Ramapo | 3 | ||
| Rowan | 3 | ||
| Connecticut | 2 | ||
| SUNY Geneseo | 2 | ||
| Frostburg St. | 2 |
Kenyon women winning? Lol
MIT coach will be getting our son’s letter in 4 months.
‘Sko Lords