2017 U.S. NATIONALS/WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS TRIALS
- Tuesday, June 27th-Saturday, July 1st
- 50-Meter Course
- Indianapolis, Indiana
- Meet Info
- Prelims timelines
- Broadcast schedule
- Event-by-event previews
- Psych Sheets
- Live Results
- Live Stream (U.S. viewers)
- Live Stream (International viewers)
We’re one session in, but the break between prelims and finals is the perfect time to do an early look at some highlights from our 2017 U.S. Nationals Pick ‘Em contest.
First, the “shoe-ins”. Overall, we have nine events with at least 95% of our readers picking the same athlete to win. Unsurprisingly, Katie Ledecky earned the highest percentage of 1st place picks in the entire meet, with every single contestant picking her to win the women’s 800 freestyle. More than 99% of voters also picked Ledecky to win the 400 and 200 freestyles (though, interestingly, just 87.5% picked her to win the 1500, which may have been due to how the psych sheets were formatted).
| Event | Athlete | % of 1st place picks |
| Women’s 800 Free | Katie Ledecky | 100.0% |
| Women’s 400 Free | Katie Ledecky | 99.8% |
| Women’s 200 Free | Katie Ledecky | 99.1% |
| Women’s 100 Fly | Kelsi Worrell | 99.1% |
| Men’s 400 IM | Chase Kalisz | 98.0% |
| Women’s 50 Fly | Kelsi Worrell | 98.0% |
| Men’s 100 Back | Ryan Murphy | 96.8% |
| Women’s 100 Free | Simone Manuel | 96.6% |
| Men’s 200 Back | Ryan Murphy | 95.5% |
The event perhaps most under fire after this morning’s session? The women’s 100 freestyle, where, although Simone Manuel is still the favorite tonight, Mallory Comerford is riding a wave of momentum coming off an excellent NCAA’s, as shown by her 53.26 swim this morning to earn herself the top seed.
On the other end of the spectrum, our most divisive events were the following:
| Event | Athlete | % of 1st place picks |
| Men’s 200 Fly | Chase Kalisz | 42.0% |
| Men’s 50 Breast | Kevin Cordes | 43.1% |
| Women’s 400 IM | Elizabeth Beisel | 43.4% |
| Women’s 200 Back | Amy Bilquist | 43.7% |
| Men’s 50 Free | Caeleb Dressel | 44.2% |
| Men’s 100 Breast | Cody Miller | 46.7% |
| Men’s 800 Free | Clark Smith | 46.7% |
Five of these are near-dead heats between two competitors:
- Men’s 200 fly: Chase Kalisz (187 first-place picks) and Jack Conger (181)
- Men’s 50 breast: Kevin Cordes (190 first-place picks) and Cody Miller (177)
- Men’s 100 breast: Cody Miller (206) and Kevin Cordes (205)
- Men’s 50 free: Caeleb Dressel (196) and Nathan Adrian (194)
Some other notes after the first session:
- Just two readers picked Zach Apple to finish anywhere inside the top six in the men’s 100 freestyle, and they picked him to finish… sixth. Even if Apple doesn’t hold off Nathan Adrian, Caeleb Dressel, and/or Ryan Held tonight, the Auburn sprinter has drastically surpassed expectations
- 60% of readers had Cassidy Bayer finishing in the top two in the women’s 200 butterfly. Bayer finished outside of the top eight this morning
- More than 80% of readers had Tom Shields finishing in the top three in the men’s 200 butterfly. Like Bayer, Shields fell outside the top eight.
- 90% of readers picked Nathan Adrian and Caeleb Dressel to finish 1-2 or vice versa in the men’s 100 free
- Around 45% of voters picked Conor Dwyer to finish in the top two in the men’s 200 freestyle. Though he is more known for his mid-distance chops, Dwyer finished an unexpected 16th in the 100 freestyle this morning
In event order, here the athletes who received the highest percentage of 1st place picks:
| Event | Athlete | % of 1st place picks |
| Women’s 200 Fly | Hali Flickinger | 84.6% |
| Men’s 200 Fly | Chase Kalisz | 42.0% |
| Women’s 100 Free | Simone Manuel** | 96.6% |
| Men’s 100 Free | Nathan Adrian | 64.9% |
| Women’s 800 Free | Katie Ledecky** | 100.0% |
| Men’s 1500 Free | True Sweetser | 56.9% |
| Women’s 200 Free | Katie Ledecky** | 99.1% |
| Men’s 200 Free | Townley Haas | 77.7% |
| Women’s 200 Breast | Katie Meili | 67.2% |
| Men’s 200 Breast | Josh Prenot | 77.6% |
| Women’s 200 Back | Amy Bilquist | 43.7% |
| Men’s 200 Back | Ryan Murphy** | 95.5% |
| Women’s 50 Fly | Kelsi Worrell** | 98.0% |
| Men’s 50 Fly | Tom Shields | 51.8% |
| Women’s 400 IM | Elizabeth Beisel | 43.4% |
| Men’s 400 IM | Chase Kalisz** | 98.0% |
| Women’s 100 Fly | Kelsi Worrell** | 99.1% |
| Men’s 100 Fly | Tom Shields | 62.7% |
| Women’s 50 Breast | Lilly King | 90.0% |
| Men’s 50 Breast | Kevin Cordes | 43.1% |
| Women’s 50 Back | Kathleen Baker | 57.6% |
| Men’s 50 Back | Ryan Murphy | 71.3% |
| Women’s 400 Free | Katie Ledecky** | 99.8% |
| Men’s 400 Free | Townley Haas | 55.0% |
| Women’s 100 Breast | Lilly King | 88.0% |
| Men’s 100 Breast | Cody Miller | 46.7% |
| Women’s 100 Back | Kathleen Baker | 78.0% |
| Men’s 100 Back | Ryan Murphy** | 96.8% |
| Women’s 1500 Free | Katie Ledecky | 87.5% |
| Women’s 200 IM | Melanie Margalis | 75.8% |
| Men’s 200 IM | Chase Kalisz | 93.4% |
| Men’s 800 Free | Clark Smith | 46.7% |
| Women’s 50 Free | Simone Manuel | 91.8% |
| Men’s 50 Free | Caeleb Dressel | 44.2% |
What are the characteristics of a winner “pickers”?
You get the obvious ones (the shoo-ins), and then pick the winners of the “toss-ups” (like the women’s 200 back) to separate yourself from the pack?
It actually winds up being quite similar to the NCAA tournament for basketball. A few people near the top who just made solid picks throughout, and then friends/family/teammates/big fans of a couple of swimmers who had breakout meets and were surprises to make the top 4 in multiple events…except to their friends.
Now that one session is over, where are the Leaderboards posted?
It was very hard to pick the 1500 because of how scrambled it was I didn’t see Ledecky at first and almost skipped over her