Japanese star Kosuke Hagino has entered just three individual events for the 2016 Rio Olympic Games, a much more pared-down schedule then we’ve seen from him in the past.
Hagino broke onto the international scene four years ago at the 2012 Olympics in London, winning the bronze medal in the 400 IM ahead of two-time defending champion Michael Phelps. He also placed a very respectable 5th in the 200 IM, all at just 17 years of age.
From there he progressed to a mind boggling six individual events at the 2013 World Championships, adding the 200 and 400 free and the 100 and 200 back to his schedule. In a total of 17 swims for the meet, Hagino managed to final in all six and won a pair of silver medals in the 400 free and 200 IM. However, it was clear he didn’t reach his full ability in some races due to fatigue from others, evidenced by him sliding from 1st at the 350m mark to 5th at the end in the 400 IM on the final day.
Hagino was injured for the 2015 World Championships so we didn’t get to see what kind of schedule he would tackle there, but for these Olympics he has narrowed his focus in on just three events: the 200 free, 200 IM and 400 IM.
The 200 free is wide open throughout the world right now, with Hagino being one of eight men entered with a time of 1:45. He sits 5th in the world for 2015-16 and has a legitimate shot at a medal.
2015-2016 LCM Men 200 Free
YANG
1.44.63
| 2 | James GUY | GBR | 1.45.19 | 04/17 |
| 3 | Chad LE CLOS | RSA | 1.45.20 | 08/08 |
| 4 | Conor DWYER | USA | 1.45.23 | 08/08 |
| 5 | Paul BIEDERMANN | GER | 1.45.45 | 05/08 |
In both the IM events Hagino would have to be considered at least one of the gold medal favorites, as he sits 1st in the world in both events. In the 200 IM he’ll be facing off against three-time Olympic Champion Michael Phelps and four-time World Champion Ryan Lochte, which sets up to be a magnificent three-way battle. Hagino’s toughest competition in the 400 IM will likely come from his teammate Daiya Seto, the two-time defending World Champion, though American Chase Kalisz could prove to be tough as well. Though Hagino is ranked 1st in the world for both events, he is the second fastest seed in both because Phelps (1:54.75) and Seto (4:08.50) went faster last season than Hagino has gone in this season.
The events Hagino has dropped, both backstrokes and the 400 free, all make sense. The 400 free and the 400 IM both take place on day 1, and Hagino has a much better chance of striking gold in the latter despite being a World silver medalist in the freestyle. Though Hagino was able to final in both backstroke events in 2013, he wouldn’t be one of the favorites to medal in either, plus they interfere with the 200 free and 200 IM. The 100 back and 200 free schedules are the same, as are the 200 back and 200 IM, with prelims, semis and finals all taking place on the same session.
Along with his three individual events Hagino will contest the 800 free relay with his Japanese teammates, an event they almost won at the 2014 Pan Pacs finishing a close 2nd to the Americans. The team struggled without Hagino last year in Kazan, placing 10th and missing the final.
Hagino has made his intentions for Rio clear, stating: “In Rio I’m aiming to win gold in the 200 and 400 individual medley, and to win a medal in both the 200 free and the 800 free relay”.
Here’s a look at his schedule for Rio. He’ll never have more than one swim during any given session.
Hagino’s day-by-day schedule:
- Day 1: AM: Prelims 400 IM, PM: Finals 400 IM
- Day 2: AM: Prelims 200 free, PM: Semis 200 free
- Day 3: AM: Off, PM: Finals 200 free
- Day 4: AM: Prelims 800 free relay, PM: Finals 800 free relay
- Day 5: AM: Prelims 200 IM, PM: Semis 200 IM
- Day 6: AM: Off, PM: Finals 200 IM
- Day 7: AM: Off, PM: Off
- Day 8: AM: Off, PM: Off
This story is about hagino not Phelps so I,ll keep it at that.
Now hagino is 5,9 in height and is less muscular than his male peers. Even some elite female swimmers have him beat in the muscle department ( I,ll bet that katinka hosszu or Jeanette ottesen will beat him in an arm wrestling match) but the times the dude swims are just mind boggling for his height, weight and muscle mass. And damn Jeanette ottesen is ripped. Damn muscular arms.
Hagino is an incredible talent. He swam many world’s fastest ever age group times.
Probably the most versatile swimmer at the moment, I think it was smart to drop the 100 back where he’s not a favorite to medal and the 400 free which could exhaust him.
Phelps better not be doing the 4 X 100 free relay now! He needs all the rest at the games he can! Heck let shields swim the butterfly in the medley relay!
Medley relay final is on the last day or day 8. 100 fly prelims and semi is on day 6 and final on day 7.
That’s definitely good for his other events but how fresh will phelps be for the medley is the other question. Maybe still be good for the medley to have shields do it if phelps isn’t fresh enough
Normally, the better finisher of the individual event get to swim the 4x100medley final, but since 100 fly final (day 7 evening) is after the medley relay prelims (day 7 morning), this will complicate the selection of who should do the prelims and who the final.
Since at least 2004, the winner of the 100 fly at US trials has swum the fly in the medley relay final: Crocker 04, Phelps 08, Phelps 12. I don’t know if this was done by previous agreement between coaches and swimmers, or not, but I suppose it was. Following this logic, since Phelps beat Shields at the 2016 trials, I imagine he’ll swim the medley relay final regardless of what happens in the individual 100 fly final. Plus, NBC will want to showcase Phelps’ last Olympic swim.
Don’t forget that Phelps gave up his spot on the medley in ’04 to Crocker
I’m not sure they didn’t have a prior agreement that Phelps would swim the relay prelim and Crocker the relay final so that both would get a (gold) medal. Makes sense since Crocker won the 2004 Oly trials.
I don’t think your argument adds up. Lezak didn’t win trials in ’08 in 100 free, but ended up beating weber-gale at olympics and got medley final spot. Jeff Rouse didn’t win trials in ’96, but beat Trip Swenk to earn spot on final medley. Mark Henderson didn’t win 100 fly trials, but beat John Hargis at olympics to earn final medley spot. The point I’m trying to make is that since the medley is the last event, the u.s. (and everyone else for that matter) has the luxury of choosing top performer in each 100 stroke discipline at thr olympics. This ends up negating their performances at trials.
Years of plain suck clearly wrote and meant for 100 fly only, because that’s where the complication arise. No problem with the other individual events/legs because they all finish before the medley relay prelims.
@Attila Yup!
It’s always who wins at the Games. Because obviously the guy who won in trials is not in shape enough. Ian was sick, and preformed so well on the relay, I think better than Phelps could have done. But Shields in no way should not be on the FINAL of the relay unless he beats Phelps. I think we all know that’s very doubtful. Phelps 50.45>51.03
Please read the comments above before wasting your time writing a comment which is both incorrect and further clouds the issue.
How come “BEACHBUMJ343” is the same handle as Tom Shield’s mom on Twitter?
I’m not tom shields mom. I’m 36 year MALE. From
Your neck of the worlds. By ohare. Not the crowded over populated downtown area though.
Medley relay is ON THE LAST DAY. It would be his last competitive race (or so we think). Rest Rest Rest! How long do people think he needs? 4 days?
4×100 finals
day off
200 fly heats and semis
200 fly finals & 4×200 free relay
200 im heats and semis
100 fly heats 200 Im finals 100 fly semis (tricky)
100 fly finals
4×100 m relay
12 races total. That is 800 m less than 2012, and 1400 m less than 2008 and 2004.
Someone correct me if I am wrong.
Medley is on Saturday. Buttefly final is Friday and 200 IM is on Thursday. I’m not that good at math but that’s not 4 days rest.
As others have warned, please stop littering this article about Hagino with Phelps comments. There are literally millions of Phelps comments to write.
Stop being a hypocrite. It’s ok for people to talk about other swimmers when a article is about phelps or lochte or so on yet it’s not ok when it’s hagino? We learn as little kids not to be hypocrites. Just a plain simple fact.
Just like its a fact that hagino will be one of phelps main competitors. Just like its a fact that phelps will be one of hagino main competitors. And so on on with every swimmer. And how a swimmer handles there schedule will determine how competitive they are. Just a fact. In this case hagino is handling his schedule very well and very small compared to some of his other meets where it’s tons… Read more »
Calm down Debbie Phelps.
Finally he’s gonna have a smart schedule.
Great choice of events, I am glad he had that learning experience in 2013.
Agree but his main competitors have pared down their schedule too
Not Park Tae-Hwan
100-200-400-1500 😀
Park could be a medal threat in the 200 and 400 right?
But his best events come up first, so swimming the 100 and 1500 afterwards has no downside.