NCAA Men’s Day 1 Picks/Predictions

While women’s NCAA’s are still going on, it’s not too early to take a quick peak forward to next weekend’s Men’s NCAA Championships, that will be held in Federal Way, Washington. This first day will have a pair of the potentially iconic swims of the meet – Feigen versus Morozov versus Auburn in the 50 free,  andDavid Nolan’s 200 IM debut. It should be a great showdown in all cases. The 500 free is without a true “superstar” this season, but that doesn’t mean that one won’t emerge in this meet.

Men’s 200 Free Relay

1. Auburn (#1 seed)
2. Arizona (#6 seed)
3. Texas (#3 seed)
4. Stanford (#4 seed)
5. Cal (#2 seed)
Darkhorse: Michigan (Uninvited)

Rationale: This relay is unbelievably tight in seeds after Auburn. The 2^nd through 14^th best relays in the country this season were only three-tenths of a second apart. How can you pick relays that are packed so tightly? You throw something at a wall and hopes it sticks. Auburn is a favorite, but after that any four teams would have a chance.

The Michigan men’s relay was the first un-invited relay, but with an underrated sprinter in Dan Madwed on the anchor, they could be in the A-Final.
Men’s 500 Free

1. Bobby Bollier (Stanford – #37 seed)
2. Sean Ryan (Michigan – #4 seed)
3. Jackson Wilcox (Texas – #19 seed)
4. Chad La Tourette (Stanford – #7 seed)
5. Ryan Feeley (Michigan – #1 seed)
Darkhorse: Andrew Gemmell (Georgia – #25 seed)

Bollier is exhibit number one for why, when team predictions come out next week, you’re going to read me say “Stanford didn’t focus on Pac-12’s as much as they normally are purported to”. He’s only seeded 37^th in this race with a 4:21, despite being the runner-up at last year’s meet. He’s going to wake some people up from their naps in the 2^nd heat of this 500 free, but if he can avoid an early-heat letdown, he’s gotta be the favorite.

There’s a lot of highly-seeded Michigan swimmers in this race (three out of the top four), but I don’t know how well all three can hold on to those lofty rankings. I’d expect at least two in the A-Final though. If those weren’t enough darkhorses, here’s another: Andrew Gemmell from Georgia. He’s best-known for his mile in the pool (though his true future may be open water), and struggled during his freshman year at this meet before redshirting last season. But after a year working with Jon Urbanchek in Fullerton, he’s a whole different swimmer. I’d expect to see him at least in an A-Final in this 500 free.

Men’s 200 IM

1. David Nolan (Stanford – #2 seed)
2. Cory Chitwood (Arizona – #1 seed)
3. Marcin Cieslak (Florida – #3 seed)
4. Kyle Whitaker (Michigan – #5 seed)
5. Kyle Owens (Auburn – #4 seed).

Darkhorse: Woody Joye (Arizona – #29 seed)
Rationale: This is a great story of the veteran versus the rookie. Cory Chitwood is the fastest returning senior and improved that time earlier this year at the Texas Invite. David Nolan, however, upstaged Chitwood last year at the Pennsylvania High School State Championships, the same weekend as Men’s NCAA’s, and actually swam a faster time. One has swum a best time already this year, and one hasn’t. I’m going to take the one who hasn’t. Nolan seems to have no problem stepping up in big meets – after all he won three individual titles at Pac-12’s.

Marcin Cieslak’s name is going to show up frequently in these selections, as I’m a huge fan of what he’s been doing this season. This race should be the first collegiate matchup between two swimmers that has been long-anticipated – Nolan and Whitaker, who traded the 200 IM National High School Record for three years. Owens has made a massive leap forward since last year and become a leader at Auburn – without even being a sprint freestyler. Watch out for Joye. He’s going to have that huge year-end taper that Arizona is famous for, and combine it with no big mid-season taper. That could lead to a special time for the Texas transfer.

Men’s 50 Free

1. Jimmy Feigen (Texas – #3 seed)
2. Vlad Morozov (USC – #4 seed)
3. Adam Small (Arizona – #6 seed)
4. Karl Krug (Auburn – #8 seed)
5. Drew Modrov (Auburn – #5 seed)
Darkhorse: Jeff Daniels (USC – #37 seed)

This will be Feigen versus Morozov in a battle of former National High School Record holders, both of whom have yet to win an individual NCAA Title. This will be Feigen’s last chance at his first chance of the meet to get that honor, and I think the senior with his size gets there. Morozov is not the biggest sprinter in the world, but he swims big through the water. Small is in a similar situation as Joye – he trained the first semester, but didn’t have the big mid-season rest. Small was lucky to even qualify for this meet, but he’s a speed demon if he’s on his game.

Jeff Daniels makes big drops at NCAA’s. He’s three-tenths faster this season than he was last season coming into the meet. A 19.4 and a high-B Final is within reach for him.

400 Medley Relay

1. Arizona (#1 seed)
2. Cal (#4 seed)
3. USC (#6 seed)
4. Auburn (#5 seed)
5. Texas (#9 seed)
Darkhorse: Ohio State (#10 seed)

Rationale: Arizona looks like Cal c. 2011 in these medleys. They’ve got options. They could put Joye on the fly leg if they like how he’s swimming. Move Kelley Wyman to breaststroke and put Adam Small on the anchor. They could use Mitchell Friedemann on the backstroke leg instead of Chitwood. The options are endless and will allow coaches to re-evaluate after prelims.

USC’s relay is really scary. With Colupaev on the breaststroke, Morozov on the anchor, and an underrated Alex Lendrum on the backstroke, they could upset and win this all. It comes down to the sophomore Chase Bloch on the fly leg. Ohio State is swimming with some unknowns – outside of backstroker Andrew Elliott. But Jason Schnur has emerged as one of the best sprinters in the country this season, and these Buckeyes are good.