Note: This is part two of a two part series, “Four Years Later”. Part One covered the men.
For reference, I’m going to compare the 2011 World Championship top three to the 2012 Olympic results. I’ll also talk about the 2015 Kazan results and what they suggest or don’t suggest will happen in Rio:
Then what followed in London:
Finally, the results of Kazan:
Four Years Ago:
Lotte Friis and Rebecca Adlington seemed poised to battle each other for distance supremacy. Adlington was the 2008 champion and could rely on either a home crowd boost or be hurt by the extra pressure. Friis had been consistently fast, both swimmers looked like they could challenge the world record and would probably have to do so to win.
Of course, no one was counting on the heat seaking missile that was Katie Ledecky. In January 2012, Ledecky’s personal best was more than twenty seconds slower than the two favorites. Ledecky completely demoralized Adlington and Friis in the final. Friis knew she had to be out front and swam a punishing first half trying to get in front. When she couldn’t, she flailed badly and missed out on a medal. A shaken Adlington managed a bronze.
In women’s swimming, there have always been stars that burst onto the scene at the last moment heading into an Olympics. In 2012, Ledecky was not the only one. Ruta Meilutyte had a similar path. These wild cards can be really disruptive to the status quo.
Four Years Later:
Just because something has only gone one way in the past, doesn’t mean it will continue. Rio seems to be ripe for change in this regard. Looking across the events, they are populated by more competitive, experienced swimmers than ever. The best candidate for a mid-teen medal is probably Viktoria Gunes, who will hardly be coming out of nowhere given her near world record last summer.
One of the things that Kazan reveals in comparison to Shanghai is how much faster women’s swimming has gotten over just one Olympic cycle. As women’s swimming develops, it will become less and less likely that we have 15 year old girls winning gold medals, just as the notion of teenage boys winning gold is nearly extinct.
Four Years Ago:
If you weren’t improving coming off Shanghai, you had no chance to win in London. This was not always the case. 2007 to 2008 was an aberration in this regard, given the change in suit technology. But several stars from the 2003 World Championships swam slower in Athens and still won gold.
Just one event in London had a slower winning time than in Shanghai. In many cases, the events took huge leaps in performance. Dana Vollmer went from winning a world title at 56.8 in the 100 fly to taking Olympic gold in 55.9. Missy Franklin leapfrogged the growingly deep 100 backstroke field to improve that events winning time by a similar margin. Rebecca Soni swam a world record ahead of an Asian record and a European record in the 200 breaststroke.
Four Years Later:
We could see a similar leap in 2016. Perhaps it will be somewhat less given the dramatic improvements made over the last four years, but expect a big improvement over Kazan in Rio. Many of the top stars are swimming well already and are surely saving even better performances for the summer.
Katie Ledecky could be a one woman wrecking crew, given that she’s already broken her own world record in early 2016. But also expect the depth in women’s sprinting to bring out some incredible performances as well as backstroke.
Four Years Ago:
The Netherlands looked unstoppable in the 4×100 relay. With the top two Shanghai finishers in the 100 free swimming for countries with little chance of a relay medal, Femke Heemskerk and Ranomi Kromowidjojo were the best 1-2 punch in the world. As good as Kromowidjojo was, she swam an unbelievable anchor split in London (51.93). But the Netherlands finished 2nd.
Australia, just sixth at the previous world’s, won handily. They only carried one swimmer from the Shanghai final into the London final, Alicia Coutts. They got nearly the best performance possible out of each swimmer in their relay.
Four Years Later:
The script has been flipped and now Australia are even bigger favorites than the Netherlands were in 2012. Nothing they have done as of this January has given any indication they won’t be spot on in Rio.
The Netherlands, however, could definitely take their revenge. Kromowidjojo and Heemskerk are still putting up great swims. Marrit Steenbergen is extremely young and could be the crucial third piece. Their fourth is not as strong as the larger countries, but Maud van der Meer has looked good, and don’t sleep on 18 year old Robin Neumann, who improved from 57.10 to 55.2 over the last nine months. If Neumann or van der Meer can produce a 54.0, it could be enough to ensure a Netherlands victory.
Next up, Part Three: Taking a look at the improvements over the last few years and making some predictions as to the winning times in Rio.
Hosszu has never been an amazing 400 IMer… I think her textile PB is around 4:30 or 4:31. It’s a very strong time, but not unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination. At the last 5 Olympics, the same woman has won both IMs: Ye in 2012, Rice in 2008, Klochkova in 2004 and 2000, Smith in 1996. If Dirado can pull off an upset in the 400 IM, she may be able to ride that momentum into the 200 IM. A lot can change in an Olympic year.. I mean, who in 2007 would’ve imagined Steph Rice winning both IMs in 2008?
I could also see Hosszu attempting a double on Day 4 (both the 200 free and 200… Read more »
Hard to imagine hoszu losing either IM but stranger things have happened in the Olympics
I can’t see Hosszu or Sjostrom winning because they simply can’t do it in the Olympics.
Neither Hosszu nor Sjostrom were at the levels they are now in previous years/Games. Just because they haven’t yet doesn’t mean they won’t.
HAHAHA. Good one :)))
A lot of bold predictions and many are going to change after the trials (“mad April” with, among others, Aussie trials from 7 to 14, Canadian trials from 5 to 10, Japanese trials from 4 to 10, and, for the Netherlands, Swim Cup in Eindhoven from 6 to 10).
About Hosszu, I think that it’s important to remind that 400 im will be in the first day of competition. A fresh Hosszu is very difficult (not impossible) to beat, also for the fast-improving DiRado. On the contrary, I think that in the 200 im Hosszu is simply too strong for every other swimmer: her transitions (underwaters after the walls and acceleration at the beginning of the leg) are on a… Read more »
“Of course, no one was counting on the heat missile that was Katie Ledecky.”
Really? Are you sure? 🙂
I think the 4×100 is far more open than the statistics suggest. The Dutch have a real bulk of girls capable of 54 legs (Vermeulen, Dekker, Neumann, vd Meer). One of them chucking in a 53. leg stuck in the middle really wouldn’t be surprising, in vd Meer’s case it should really be expected after a 54.4 PB in December.
Kromowidjojo, Heemskerk & young Steenbergen are a very strong foundation. It’ll rely on a lazy swim from one of the Aussies, but 2012 taught us that might just happen.
Hhmm, one slight issue is that they are likely to have to expend Kromowidjojo “off the gun” to ensure a highly competitive start. Whilst she is still highly capable of a sub53 flying start, she hasn’t been in that country flat start since 2012. Steenbergen is most certainly a great prospect but, as yet, she’s only a 53high flat start so whilst she’s not likely to be conceding water to those behind, she’s probably not likely to be dropping in a sub53 just yet. Heemkerk IS a superb relay performer and should bring them home stronger than anyone else bar either Campbell but they realistically need that 4th swimmer sub54 to be in the gold mix.
The internal culture of… Read more »
Australia has some deep in their relay.We will probably see a better Emma and a healthy Britanny Elmslie swimming great legs.Save a disaster they will go probably a lot faster than at Worlds.Don’t expect only a 53.9 opening in Rio by Australia.
Elmslie was in the London team that won gold but she wasn’t in the finals line-up in Glasgow that set the WR; so whilst it would be great for depth/options to have her back swimming fast she’s not necessarily part of the optimal line-up. At this point this would look to be C1, C2, McKeonE, question mark. I would expect Wright, Elsmlie, Seebohm, Wilson & Coutts as being those most likely to be in the mix for that spot.
It would not surprise to see an AUS heats line-up set a time that would medal in the main final. USA has sufficient depth of sub54s that they can field alternates in heats; this luxury however is not one that… Read more »
If we apply the Shanghai-London trends to the Kazan-Rio cycle, 5 events would have repeat winners. In which events do you think the Kazan winner will also win in Rio? My guesses are:
– 200 Free (Ledecky)
– 400 Free (Ledecky)
– 800 Free (Ledecky)
– 100 Back (Seebohm)
– 100 Fly (Sjostrom)
I’m going to make a bold prediction here.. I think Dirado will upset Hosszu in the IMs in Rio!
IM, or IMs? Dirado would be a huge shocker in the 200, to be honest… Hosszu is almost 3s faster, Watanabe’s back half is impossible to compete with, all she’ll see of O’Connor at the 50 is her feet. The 400, I actually agree, I doubt Hosszu gets the trip relative to her 200 in a LCM pool, but the 200 isn’t going to happen. I can’t even see a medal for Dirado. Even if she can reel O’Connor in on the backstroke leg (Hosszu will be gone), she then has to stick with her on breast (her recent 67.7 showed how good her breaststroke is looking) and hold off Watanabe, the worlds best 200m breaststroker…
i’d say gunes is the best female breaststroker right now. 2.19 compared to watanabes 2.21 last summer and if i remember correctly her 200 im breast split was actually faster than watanabes split as well. 35.5 or so o.O
The issue with Gunes is NOT her capacity to produce the fast time but rather her ability to back up through the three rounds. In Kazan, she was 5th fastest in heats but failed to replicate in semis and missed the final. At World Juniors, she had the comfort factor of (1) only having heats to finals in the 200 and (2) being so far ahead of the competition that qualification was “a walk in the park”. She’s most certainly a very major contender but this IS a key issue she has to overcome in both events.
Let’s not sleep on Efimova
Gutsy call, I like it.
Surprisingly, the Iron Lady has been stronger in the 200 IM than the 400 IM in recent years. Hard to see anyone else going 2:06 in the 200 IM, but if DiRado can get down to 4:30, she could pull off an upset.
I’m not sure Hosszu is necessarily stronger at the 200IM than the 400IM. Consider the schedule she had to swim and the performances she put in after her 200IM… A 4:30 is quite strong at the end of the week, though we’ll see how she fares with it at the front of the schedule in Rio.
I’d give DiRado a very real shot at the 400IM but the 200 ……. just not seeing it. She’s conceding the best part of 3sec to Hosszu. She’ll be doing well to pick up a medal in this event
Have to disagree with the 4×100 comment. Even if NED find a 54.0 leg, the sub 52 power of Cate/Bronte and sub 53 from McKeon etc will make them heavy heavy favourites for the final.
Agreed, ths main dispute on this relay will be the bronze.. US is there, but Sweden may find a 54 leg and Canada is close too..
If Ruck and Oleksiak can make another jump in times, Canada are a huge threat for the medals.
What odds could you get on USA missing out on the medals on both 4×100 free relays? That’d be a shocker in swimming tradition terms.
Those are some big ifs. Canada has been really bad in the Olympics, swimming wise, for quite some time.
Sorry Chris, but that comment is quite unfounded. “Quite bad” for a nation with little swimming tradition is qualified as what?
Don’t forget, Cate and Bronte can be very inconsistent, more inconsistent than the two Dutch women
Hhhmm, that’s a wee bit of a hazy assertion Chris. Ranomi does have an admirable international record in both relay terms and individually. Femke has an admirable record in relays but she has yet to deliver individually the times she has produced in domestic or 2nd tier events.
The one area where your assertion regarding the Campbell’s has some credence relates to the Olympics. Cate was a rookie in Beijing who picked up bronze in 50free but was sick in London. Post London, her consistency in both relay & individual swims can’t really be faulted. Bronte isn’t yet as consistent in putting out the world leading times in season as big sister but over the past 2 years, she has… Read more »