2016 has arrived, and before we can do too much mashing and gnashing over who will win Olympic gold, there is still plenty of spots in those Olympic races to be earned. Below, we present our preliminary, cursory, 6-months out, way too early 2016 formchart for the U.S. Olympic Trials.
Beginning in May, SwimSwam will dig deeper into each event and finalize our predictions.
50m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time (2nd Place): 21.60
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly. Experience
1.Nathan Adrian 21.37 1 2 ’08,’12
2.Caeleb Dressel 21.53 2 4 No
3.Cullen Jones 21.87 4 11 ’08,’12
4. Josh Schneider 21.80 3 6 No
5.Anthony Ervin 21.98 5 17 ’00,’12
6.Michael Chadwick 22.03 6 21 No
Darkhorse: Michael Andrew 22.34 11 61 No
After Nathan Adrian’s American record at Worlds and Caeleb Dressel’s blistering 21.53 at Nationals, it’s hard to put anyone ahead of them as of now. Cullen Jones will be the fastest he’s been since his silver medal in London, but will that be enough to get by Adrian/Dressel? After Michael Andrew’s recent 19.2 yards swim he’s fit for a dark horse pick.
100m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time (Ind.): 48.46 Relay: 48.88
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly. Experience
1.Nathan Adrian 48.31 1 12 ’08,’12
2.Caeleb Dressel 48.78 3 33 No
3.Michael Chadwick 48.87 4 39 No
4.Jack Conger 49.02 6 48 No
5.Maxime Rooney 48.87 4 39 No
6.Matt Grevers 49.70 22 138 ’08,12
Darkhorse: Ryan Hoffer 49.73 23 144 No
*Top-6 finishers qualify for the team in the 400m free relay
Despite what many considered a shaky World Championships performance in the 100 free, Nathan Adrian was still the fastest in the U.S. field by a wide margin. After that, it’s going to be an incredibly close field. Dressel and Michael Chadwick have been on fire so far this NCAA season, Jack Conger threw down two sub-48 relay swims at WUGs and Maxime Rooney is a major star on the rise. Despite Matt Grevers poor time of 49.7 from last season, he never swam a tapered flat-start 100 free and seems to be rejuvenated after a sub-par Worlds performance. After going 41.23 in the 100 yard free, Ryan Hoffer will test his mettle in long course.
Side note: I think we’ll likely see Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte swim the preliminaries, maybe the semi’s, and scratch, provided they’ve gone fast enough that they think they’ll be locks for the relay (as it is ultimately up to the coaches).
200m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time (Ind.): 1:46.56 Relay: 1:47.02
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Ryan Lochte 1:45.36 1 3 ’04,’08,’12
2.Conor Dwyer 1:46.62 2 16 ’12
3.Maxime Rooney 1:47.10 3 24 No
4.Jack Conger 1:47.62 8 43 No
5.Zane Grothe 1:47.11 4 27 No
6.Clark Smith 1:49.23 20 139 No
Darkhorse: Trevor Carroll 1:48.78 16 100 No
* Top-6 finishers qualify for the team in the 800m free relay
Lochte and Conor Dwyer have been the perennial top-2 since 2013, and as of now are the clear favorites for the two individual spots this summer. There 9 guys who went 1:47 in 2015, so the relay spots are wide open. Maxime Rooney and Zane Grothe had fantastic summers, Clark Smith has been on fire this NCAA season, and Trevor Carroll has made steady improvements every summer and has been fast so far this season in the NCAA. Jack Conger is very dangerous in this event, however it could become a scheduling conflict for him at Trials with the final landing on the same day as the 200 fly semi.
400m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time: 3:47.83
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Connor Jaeger 3:44.81 1 6 ’12
2.Conor Dwyer 3:47.53 5 21 ’12
3.Clark Smith 3:47.10 4 18 No
4.Zane Grothe 3:45.98 2 9 No
5.Michael McBroom 3:46.69 3 16 No
6.Townley Haas 3:48.69 6 30 No
Darkhorse: True Sweetser 3:49.33 8 44 No
Connor Jaeger has proven himself time and time again, and will be the one to beat in this event. Conor Dwyer has picked this event up again after moving more towards the 100 and 200 recently, and his Winter National title was very impressive. Smith and Grothe had a good battle at US Nationals, and Michael McBroom and Townley Haas will contend as well. True Sweetser had a breakout Nationals that saw him post two 3:49s, making him a threat heading into Omaha.
1500m Freestyle 2012 Qualifying Time: 14:52.51
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Connor Jaeger 14:41.20 1 2 ’12
2.Michael McBroom 14:57.07 3 11 No
3.Jordan Wilimovsky 14:57.05 2 10 No
4.True Sweetser 15:10.73 5 32 No
5.Andrew Gemmell 15:09.92 4 31 ’12
6.PJ Ransford 15:14.04 6 49 No
Darkhorse: Evan Pinion 15:23.98 17 92 No
Jaeger is the undisputed number 1 in this event. The battle for 2nd should come down to McBroom and Jordan Wilimvosky, but we could see some surprises. True Sweetser’s stock is on the rise, and he cannot be overlooked. 2012 Olympian Andrew Gemmell and 2015 NCAA 1650 runner-up PJ Ransford will be there as well. Look out for Tennessee’s Evan Pinion, who has been impressive thus far in the NCAA season.
100m Backstroke 2012 Qualifying Time: 52.86
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Matt Grevers 52.54 3 5 ’08,’12
2.Ryan Murphy 52.18 1 2 No
3.David Plummer 52.51 2 4 No
4.Nick Thoman 53.20 4 12 ’12
5.Eugene Godsoe 53.96 5 27 No
6.Luke Kaliszak 54.23 8 35 No
Darkhorse: Jake Taylor 54.60 13 59 No
Despite Ryan Murphy’s 52.18 mixed medley lead-off time not officially counting towards World Rankings due to men and women not being allowed to race alongside in solo events, were going to use it here, because he did go that time. However, Matt Grevers is my pick for first place as he seemed to use his disappointment at Worlds as motivation as he had a dominant Duel in the Pool. Murphy and David Plummer give the US 3 of the top 5 100 backstrokers in the world, but one will miss out on a spot. Nick Thoman will be in tough to regain his 100 back Olympic spot, and Luke Kaliszak had a very impressive summer. BYU’s Jake Taylor is someone to watch out for after a strong start to the NCAA season.
200m Backstroke 2012 Qualifying Time: 1:54.88
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Ryan Lochte 1:57.96 7 29 ’04,’08,’12
2.Ryan Murphy 1:55.00 1 5 No
3.Tyler Clary 1:56.26 2 8 ’12
4.Jacob Pebley 1:56.29 3 9 No
5.Patrick Mulcare 1:57.34 6 18 No
6.Sean Lehane 1:57.11 5 15 No
Darkhorse: Austin Katz 1:58.51 10 39 No
After failing to qualify for the World Championship team in this event, Ryan Lochte didn’t swim a tapered 200 back in 2015, hence his relatively low rankings. However, I believe he’ll reclaim his spot at the top of the heap in Omaha. 2012 Olympic champion Tyler Clary will be in tough to qualify in this event with Lochte at his best and Ryan Murphy on the rise. Jacob Pebley is coming off a pair of gold medals in this event over the summer at the World University Games and US Nationals, Sean Lehane is coming off a Pan Am gold medal and Patrick Mulcare had a breakout Winter Nats in December. Keep an eye out for Austin Katz who medalled at Junior Worlds.
100m Breaststroke 2012 Qualifying Time: 1:00.15
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Kevin Cordes 1:00.27 5 25 No
2.Cody Miller 59.51 1 8 No
3.Nicholas Fink 59.52 2 9 No
4.Andrew Wilson 59.65 3 12 No
5.Sam Tierney 1:00.15 4 22 No
6.Brendan McHugh 1:00.50 6 35 No
Darkhorse: Michael Andrew 1:00.68 10 49 No
After a few slip-ups in 2014, Kevin Cordes had an excellent World Championships in 2015, quietly winning 4 medals and leaving no doubt that he can perform under pressure. He didn’t qualify for Worlds in the 100, but he was clearly the right choice for the medley relays, posting three 58-second splits in his three opportunities. Cody Miller has been on fire lately, and will certainly challenge Cordes for the top spot, as will Nicholas Fink. Andrew Wilson and Sam Tierney are coming off Summer and Winter National titles respectively, and Brendan McHugh has been 1:00 many times in the last few months. Teenage phenom Michael Andrew continues to smash NAG records, and will be very dangerous at the Olympic Trials. This event might be his best shot at making the team.
200m Breaststroke 2012 Qualifying Time: 2:09.97
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Kevin Cordes 2:08.05 1 3 No
2.Will Licon 2:10.02 6 25 No
3.Nicholas Fink 2:08.89 2 7 No
4.Cody Miller 2:09.08 4 11 No
5.Josh Prenot 2:08.90 3 8 No
6.Andrew Wilson 2:09.84 5 21 No
Darkhorse: Reece Whitley 2:11.30 7 47 No
After a silver medal at Worlds, Kevin Cordes is certainly the number one pick in a race that could be one of the closest at the Trials. Six men have a very realistic chance of placing in the top-2. Will Licon proved he can swim big when it counts at NCAAs, and I think we’ll see some magic from him in Omaha. Nic Fink posted a very impressive 2:08.8 on the World Cup circuit, and Cody Miller recently became the third man under 1:50 in yards. Josh Prenot and Andrew Wilson also dipped below 2:10 in 2015, and teenage standout Reece Whitley certainly has sky-high potential.
100m Butterfly 2012 Qualifying Time: 51.32
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Michael Phelps 50.45 1 1 ’00,’04,’08,’12
2.Tom Shields 51.03 2 5 No
3.Jack Conger 51.33 3 8 No
4.Ryan Lochte 52.29 8 36 ’04,’08,’12
5.Tim Phillips 51.75 5 18 No
6.Matthew Josa 51.68 4 16 No
Darkhorse: Connor Black 52.61 10 52 No
The men’s 100 fly will be one of the most highly anticipated races of the Trials. It was hard to pick just 6 and a dark horse with so many fast American men in this event. Phelps is the undisputed favorite. I mean, he’s the 3-time defending Olympic champion and will look for number 4 this year. Tom Shields had a very impressive 2015 including a 4th place finish at the World Championships, and Jack Conger was the runner-up behind Phelps at Nationals. Ryan Lochte is very capable in this event having finished 3rd at the last Olympic Trials, and Tim Phillips and Matthew Josa were both well under 52 in 2015. Connor Black of Stanford is someone to watch for, after going a personal best 52.61 in August.
200m Butterfly 2012 Qualifying Time: 1:55.12
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Michael Phelps 1:52.94 1 1 ’00,’04,’08,’12
2.Jack Conger 1:54.54 2 8 No
3.Tom Shields 1:55.75 3 17 No
4.Andrew Seliskar 1:55.92 5 20 No
5.Tyler Clary 1:55.86 4 19 ’12
6.Pace Clark 1:56.84 6 32 No
Darkhorse: Michael Thomas 1:57.61 11 57 No
Phelps will be favoured to walk away with both butterfly titles in Omaha, with Shields and Conger battling for the other spot. Andrew Seliskar and Tyler Clary were both under 1:56 this year, and Pace Clark broke through at Nationals with a 3rd place finish. Youngster Michael Thomas will be someone to keep an eye on after he posted 1:57 swims at Nationals and World Juniors, where he won a bronze medal.
200m Individual Medley 2012 Qualifying Time: 1:54.93
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Michael Phelps 1:54.75 1 1 ’00,’04,’08,’12
2.Ryan Lochte 1:55.81 2 2 ’04,’08,’12
3.Will Licon 1:58.43 5 18 No
4.Conor Dwyer 1:57.96 3 10 ’12
5.Josh Prenot 1:58.38 4 16 No
6.Andrew Seliskar 1:59.93 11 39 No
Darkhorse: David Nolan 2:00.15 13 43 No
The 200 IM field is loaded with lots of big names, but there is little to decide in terms of Olympic selections. Phelps and Lochte have dominated this event, with no one other than the two of them winning the last 3 Olympic and 7 World Championship titles. Behind them, names such as Will Licon, Conor Dwyer, Josh Prenot, and many others will battle for places 3rd through 8th in the final. This is an event Dwyer could easily drop as he has a much better chance of qualifying in his other events, but unless he makes the 100 free final he may as well swim as it would be his last event. Andrew Seliskar scratched this event at Nationals but has a lot of untapped potential in this event and could challenge for a top-3 spot. SCY American record holder David Nolan will look to make some noise in this his signature race from college in long course. He has shown marked improvement since joining Bob Bowman in Tempe including a 2:00.15 personal best at Winter Nationals.
400m Individual Medley 2012 Qualifying Time: 4:07.89
2015 Best US Rank World Rank Oly.Experience
1.Chase Kalisz 4:10.05 1 4 No
2.Tyler Clary 4:11.71 2 5 ’12
3.Will Licon 4:20.70 18 96 No
4.Josh Prenot 4:13.15 4 10 No
5.Jay Litherland 4:12.43 3 7 No
6.Gunnar Bentz 4:14.16 5 18 No
Darkhorse: Sean Grieshop 4:15.67 6 22 No
Chase Kalisz and Tyler Clary have been the perennial top-2 in this event since Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte stop competing in it. The rest of the field will have a difficult time taking out Kalisz and/or Clary, but there’s plenty of young talent that will hungry to do so. Will Licon famously took out Kalisz at the NCAA Championships in March, but had a disappointing prelims swim at Nationals. Jay Litherland and Josh Prenot dominated this event at the World University Games going 1-2, and Gunnar Bentz won Nationals but a wide margin. Sean Grieshop will be one to watch after finishing 3rd at Nationals and then winning gold at Junior Worlds.
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Ryan Held for the last spot in the 400 Fr Relay! MASSIVE dropped from 51.7 to 49.1 last summer. NCSU knows a thing or two in developing sprinters…
No mention of Reed Malone in the 2 free? The kid is 20 and went 1.47.15 flat start this summer to win the University Games. Under the tutelage of Salo and TSC, my money is on him nabbing top 6…
Reed Malone will surely be in the final of the 200 come trials . he is one of the new blood 200 free specialists Usa needs soon .
I think Clark Smith will make the team.
400 free looks like an interesting battle, with the four of Jaeger, Dwyer, Smith, and Grothe all in the mix. I think Jaeger is the clear-cut #1, but if Smith can continue his amazing year all the way through trials, he definitely has a shot to usurp Dwyer.
Keep in mind Texas did note that Clark Smith was fully tapered for their midseason invite. I think that likely means he’s going to not fully rest for NCAA’s, due to Trials being in close proximity to that, and that they’ll rest him, along with Jack Conger and Will Licon and others with a significant chance of making the team, for Trials. This doesn’t mean anything for their NCAA chances (they still… Read more »
I think Reese can make it easier than Andrew in 100 breast.
Where are the women’s forechart?
Ryan – we plan to have those posted by tomorrow.
Sorry I’m a bit of a noob and just wondering, why 6 for a relay? Is it garrunteed that the other two swim even the morning swimmers all put out incredible splits? And if they don’t swim, are they still considered Olympians?
By a new rule.all relay only swimmers must swim. If they bring a swimmer who does not swim the team is dq
USA typically brings 6 swimmers for relays so two can rest and not swim in the prelims. Usually, the fastest two swimmers in the prelims join the big guns in the final relay. All members of the relays are considered Olympians and prelim only swimmers still get Olympic medals if their team earns a medal in the final.