The Minneapolis stop of the 2015-2016 Arena Pro Swim Series has wrapped up in Minnesota. Here are 5 big things we noticed on night 3:
- Becca Mann blowing up: It was a given that tonight’s 800 free final would feature one world-ranked swim from an 18-and-under with world champ Katie Ledecky in the race. But North Baltimore 17-year-old Becca Mann made it two with an 8:21.77 that ranks her 2nd in the world for this season. That time is a lifetime-best for Mann and moves her to within striking distance of the top 4 in USA Swimming history for the 17-18 age group. That time also would have been 6th at this summer’s World Championships.
- Phelps still rules 200 IM: Despite a solid field that included international and domestic threats, Michael Phelps was untouchable in the 200 IM. Phelps looked as aggressive as ever, blasting his way to a full body-length lead by about 75 meters in. Maybe most promising? His backstroke split of 29.7 obliterated the field, and he was also faster than everyone but breaststroke specialist Carlos Claverie on that split. Conor Dwyer outsplit Phelps on the freestyle leg, but if rest can bring around the closing speed for Phelps, this coming summer could be a big one in the 200 IM.
- Past and Future Pac-12 Rivalries in 100 free: The women’s 100 free was a battle of some of the best and brightest young talents in the nation – talents who all gravitated to the Pac-12. Stanford’s Simone Manuel won in 54.19, just outside of the world’s top 5 for the season. She had to pass up future Cal Bear Abbey Weitzeil to do it, though, and Weitzeil went 54.46 for second. Meanwhile future Stanford Cardinal Ledecky was 4th in 54.95 and former Cal Bear Missy Franklin 6th in 55.26. Manuel is redshirting this season for Stanford, and Weitzeil and Ledecky have both deferred their enrollments until next year. But within 12 months, we’ll likely see all three of those young talents competing together in the Pac-12.
- Nathan Adrian tops international field in 100 free: 5 different nations were represented in the A final of the men’s 100 free, but American Nathan Adrian topped them all. The Olympic champ was 48.49, a nice starting point for his Olympic title defense, and he beat young Canadian hotshot Santo Condorelli. The A final also featured a pair of Brazilians in 3rd and 4th (Joao de Lucca and Marcelo Chierighini), a Surinamese record-holder (Renzo Tjon-A-Joe) and Hong Kong’s Geoff Cheah.
- McBroom rock solid in 1500: It was Michael McBroom who paced the men’s 1500 free, and he did it with remarkable consistency. Outside of his first and last splits, every single 50 McBroom swam fell within a one-second margin – his fastest split was a 30.13, his slowest a 31.07. In fact, he only dipped above 31 twice in his race, both times going 31.0. That led to an excellent early-season swim of 15:14.82 in a race that saw him best international vets Connor Jaeger and Ous Mellouli by wide margins.
Becca Mann and Leah Smith swam really well. Usually it’s Katie Ledecky, then some open water, then the field. This time, it was Katie Ledecky, Mann/Smith, then the field, or even Katie Ledecky AND Mann/Smith, then the field, at times.
I would wager on solid odds that Ledecky get’s beat by Mann in the 800 or 1500 in the next few years. Not at a big meet, just a grand prix or maybe nationals, but given Ledecky seems to be branching out and the in-season gap is closing, I’d say Becca Mann 8:18 to Katie Ledecky 8:20 at a Grand Prix in 2017 isn’t unlikely.
How about Becca Mann following up her 8:21 (she was inside the flags when Ledecky finished) with her A final swim in the 200 IM a few minutes later… THEN her B final swim in the 200 back?! I think THAT string of three swims was the performance of the weekend.
I would also like to point out at a solid 100 and 200 for schmitty at this point. glad to see all of these swimmers swimming this good in the season. Olympics here we come USA.USA.USA. we will be ready if this is ant distinction.
@Bobo: all good in your analysis. Just this you wrote :”her main rivals like Campbell 1 and 2, Ranomi or Sarah Sjöström swim 52 high/53 low in season. ” is a bit extreme (52 high in-season is very rare, perhaps only Campbell 1 and Sjostrom may get it), but the meaning was clear and I agree.
@Bobogigisuperfan: so boring..
I wish Simone Manuel had been asked what training changes she has made in preparation for Rio. Her LCM times were slower than the previous year and she’s still training with Stanford.
12. The day 3 race videos are still not available on youtube. 😥
Please post them here once they are available.
We know we can always count on you!
Please, just stop.
Looks like I’ve missed a lot of very interesting races. 🙁
I was looking for the results’ link on the USA swimming website but it has disappeared since day 2 of the meet. Fortunately I’ve found it on swimswam.
Quick thoughts on day 3.
1. Katie Ledecky was not unbeatable this weekend in the 400 free and the 800 free. Of course she won with very decent times for a November meet (4.02/8.19) but she wasn’t unbeatable. However her shortest events were better. 25.45/54.95/1.55.37. I’m not a specialist but maybe it shows she works more the 200 free to be at her best in that event in Rio because she knows she will have a big challenge with Sarah… Read more »
Bobo,
As usual, your analysis is very in depth and can only be written by someone with expert level knowledge of swimming.
Mel Stewart who?
You also gave me inspiration to start following the swims of little girls, the younger the better, so I can brag in 5 years time that I have followed their swimming career since they were still 10. Thank you!
Come now, surely you have better things to do than pick on individual commenters. This isn’t middle school.
Regarding Missy “…can’t multiple the races with success as when she was much younger,” I’d point out that she is still only 20, and just two years ago, she won six gold medals and a bronze at WC’s, the bronze coming in what you consider her throwaway event (100 free). Since then, the transition to college swimming and back again may well have affected her performance at 2015 WC’s, so perhaps it is premature to declare that she is no longer capable of swimming the same program at a high level.
Regarding Lochte and Clary scratching, of course there was a little bit of disappointment among the fans, but I don’t think anyone in the crowd didn’t feel they got… Read more »
Bobo – Who are your picks for U.S. Olympic team in the breaststrokes? Seems like both the men’s and women’s are wide open..
Also, do you think Katie Ledecky will swim the 400 IM at Trials? Interesting article saying that she’s leaning against it, but I have an inkling she might throw her hat into the ring.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olympics/rejoice-im-swimmers-katie-ledecky-will-likely-stick-to-freestyles-in-rio/2015/11/13/a708ef58-8a32-11e5-be39-0034bb576eee_story.html
1. Becca Mann will qualify for Rio in 800 free!
2. The two greatest america’s female sprinters ever, Manuel and Weitzeil, will sweep the 50-100 free in Rio!
This routine is getting old.