MEN’S 400M FREESTYLE: 2015 FINA WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS PREVIEW
- Day 1, Sunday, August 2nd
- 2013 World Champion: Sun Yang, CHN – 3:41.59 (SEE RACE VIDEO ABOVE)
- 2013 Silver Medalist: Kosuke Hagino, JAP – 3:44.82
- 2013 Bronze Medalist: Connor Jaeger, USA – 3:44.85
The men’s 400m freestyle has consistently been a relatively fast event throughout the last 10 years, as the last five championships have seen every field full of stars in some of their prime years (minus 2007 where a young and relatively unknown Park Tae Hwan won gold). After Grant Hackett’s dominance in 2005 in the distance freestyle events, Sun Yang and Park have been the dominant forces in the event. Paul Biedermann did have his world record breaking performance in 2009, but hasn’t come anywhere close to that time since.
Park has two world championship titles in the event along with an Olympic gold medal, and Sun has a world championship and an Olympic gold, along with a silver medal from the 2011 worlds. Historically a 3:41-3:42 swim has been what it takes to capture gold and a 3:43-3:44 to be there for a medal. Aside from the winning time, the event got a little slower from 2011 to 2013, however some of the times that have already been posted this year lead me to believe the event will be faster in 2015.
Take a look at the top times from around the world this season:
2014-2015 LCM Men 400 Free
YANG
3.42.58
| 2 | Mack HORTON | AUS | 3.42.84 | 04/03 |
| 3 | James GUY | GBR | 3.43.75 | 08/02 |
| 4 | David McKEON | AUS | 3.44.28 | 04/03 |
| 5 | Ryan COCHRANE | CAN | 3.44.59 | 08/02 |
| 6 | Connor JAEGER | USA | 3.44.81 | 08/02 |
| 7 | Kosuke HAGINO | JPN | 3.45.19 | 04/07 |
| 8 | Nicholas GRAINGER | GBR | 3.45.89 | 04/14 |
| 9 | Zane GROTHE | USA | 3.45.98 | 08/08 |
| 10 | Myles BROWN | RSA | 3.46.08 | 04/13 |
After already posting a 3:42.84 this year, I believe Mack Horton will be number one on Sun Yang’s radar for the event. With Park not competing due to suspension, Horton looks to be the one to take his place as Sun’s dueling partner. In the past, Sun has proven his talent and closing ability can be lethal. Recently, however, he hasn’t been swimming at the same level since serving his doping suspension. 3:44 at the Chinese Spring Nationals was still strong this year, but it wasn’t the same caliber that we have seen from him in the past. It will be hard for Horton to replicate the 3:42 he posted this year, but I believe he can get there again for a silver medal.
James Guy has been knocking on the door the last few years and has had a good year this year, so I think we’ll finally see him make that jump onto the podium. Ryan Cochrane and David McKeon had a great battle at last summers Commonwealth Games and I think they’ll be really close again, only with more competition surrounding them at this meet. McKeon has proven his ability to swim 3:43 multiple times and Cochrane finally did it last summer.
Kosuke Hagino had a surprise silver in 2013, and will no doubt be in the mix, as will Connor Jaeger who won bronze in 2013. Based off of the times we have seen this year, both will have tough competition to get back on the podium this summer, however, it is certainly not out of the question.
Nicholas Grainger is one of many up and coming British mid-distance freestylers. He has already swum a 3:45 this year, so I see him making the final. Once he gets there he will likely have trouble keeping up with the big guns.
After his performance at the 2015 short course worlds, Peter Bernek is my darkhorse selection. Bernek won the 400 free in a time of 3:34.32 in December, breaking Grant Hackett’s 15 year old world championship record. Bernek has historically been more of a fixture internationally on the backstroke scene, but with his recent short course performances, he is poised for something big this summer in the mid-distance freestyle. Other swimmers who will battle for a spot in the final include Devon Brown of South Africa, Velimir Stjepanovic of Serbia, and Italians Gregorio Paltrinieri and Gabrielle Detti.
Predictions
- Sun Yang, CHN 3:41.56
- Mack Horton, AUS 3:42.46
- James Guy, GBR 3:43.17
- Ryan Cochrane, CAN 3:43.63
- David McKeon, AUS 3:43.65
- Kosuke Hagino, JPN 3:44.55
- Connor Jaeger, USA 3:44.61
- Nicholas Grainger, GBR 3:45.36
Darkhorse: Peter Bernek, HUN 3:46.24
SCHEDULE (POOL SWIMMING STARTS ON DAY 9)
SWIMMING FINALS SCHEDULE:
Day 1, Sun August 2nd (Day 9)
- M 400 Free
- M 400 Free
- W 4×100 Free Relay
- M 4×100 Free Relay
Day 2, Mon August 3rd (Day 10)
- M 100 Breast
- W 100 Fly
- M 50 Fly
- W 200 IM
Day 3, Tue August 4th (Day 11)
- M 200 Free
- W 100 Back
- W 1500 Free
- M 100 Back
- W 100 Breast
Day 4, Wed August 5th (Day 12)
- M 200 Fly
- W 200 Free
- M 50 Breast
- Men’s 800 Free
- MIXED 4×100 medley relay
Day 5, Thur August 6th (Day 13)
- M 200 IM
- M 100 Free
- W 200 Fly
- W 50 Back
- W 4×200 Free Relay
Day 6, Fri August 7th (Day 14)
- W 100 Freestyle
- M 200 back
- W 200 breast
- M 200 breast
- M 4×200 Free Relay
Day 7, Sat August 8th (Day 15)
- W 50 Fly
- M 50 Free
- W 200 Back
- M 100 Fly
- W 800 Free
- MIXED 4×100 Free Relay
Day 8, Sun August 9th (Day 16)
- M 50 Back
- W 50 Breast
- M 400 IM
- W 50 Free
- M 1500 Free
- W 400 IM
- M 4×100 Medley Relay
- W 4×100 Medley Relay
Jaeger for the win – its his year to shine – go USA!
I think mack Horton and sun yang both have the capability of going under 3:41 at worlds
Floppy anyone who judges someone just on that person,s musical tastes has a questionable character.
Think it’s maybe a year early for Horton to stand on the top step although he has to be considered a clear medal shot IF he’s switched on during heats. McKeon, on the other hand, can be discounted; he goes to pieces in international competition and is unlikely to final.
Sun will be comeback!
i think it is a bit early for Mack Horton in the 400 both in the programme & his career . When he is ready it will come .
Some solid performances close to his trials times would be a success given that qualifying times will be much higher than australian heats & Comm Games & Wld Juniors .
” He is just a boy …..”
The man has the most graceful and effective distance freestyle stroke I have seen since Ian Thorpe retired from competition. Perhaps even better than Thorpe’s. When I heard about him testing positive he broke my heart, like Fredo in the Godfather II.
This event is very competive. Sun isn’t at his best anymore. Horton could beat him but he lacks this big meet experience so could be anywhere from first to 9th (sometimes it is harder to make a final in an event like this where it is the 8 best times from the heats). Hagino and jaeger have the best closing speed of the rest and will fight for bronze.