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8 Lanes, 4 Countries: What Are the Odds of That?

The third finals session of the 2024 Paris Olympics was one for the books in terms of fun facts and interesting stats, with a particularly rare result occurring in the semifinal of the women’s 100 back.

Following the results of the semifinal, only four countries will be represented in the women’s 100 back final Tuesday night: the United States, Australia, Canada and France, with each nation sending two qualifiers on to fill all eight lanes between them.

The top eight finishers from this evening’s race are Regan Smith (1st) and Katharine Berkoff (3rd) from the U.S., Kaylee McKeown (2nd) and Iona Anderson (4th) from Australia, Kylie Masse (5th) and Ingrid Wilm (6th) from Canada, and Beryl Gastaldello (7th) and Emma Terebo (8th) from France. 

This is only the second time in history (since two swimmers per country were permitted) that an Olympic final has been made up of only four countries. 

The first time this happened was coincidentally just last Olympics, when the U.S., Australia, Canada and China each sent two swimmers onto the final of the women’s 200 back. 

The finals field in Tokyo included two of the same swimmers that we see in the 100 this time around, with McKeown and Emily Seebohm from Australia, Masse and Taylor Ruck from Canada, Rhyan White and Phoebe Bacon from the U.S., and Xuwei Peng and Yaxin Liu from China.

As you can see from the picture, the results of tonight’s semifinal will pair the Americans next to each other in lanes 3 and 4 while the Australians will be doubled up in lanes 5 and 6; the Canadians will be opposite each other in lanes 2 and 7, putting the French women in the outside lanes. 

This sets us up for an intense final, as we have eight swimmers, four countries, and only three medals. So the question for tomorrow is: how many countries will be represented on the podium?

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The Albatross
3 months ago

We, Frenchmen and Frenchwomen, are very happy to see both Emma and Beryl in the final tonight. We know that it is very unlikely one of them will win a medal but they got the job done and we will support them tonight.

Oceanian
3 months ago

AUS – USA – USA – CAN – AUS – FRA – CAN – FRA I reckon

mS424
3 months ago

why are people writing off kaylee in this comment section? She’s the defending olympic champion and second all time. She’s always been a racer and had the edge.

Wow
Reply to  mS424
3 months ago

The majority of comments have actually favored Kaylee….especially on the live one

Last edited 3 months ago by Wow
Barty’s Bakery
Reply to  mS424
3 months ago

I think there’s a pretty even split to be fair. I’m Aussie but I just have a feeling Regan will win. I hope I’m wrong!

Thomas The Tank Engine
Reply to  mS424
3 months ago

Regan looked smoother in the semis.

I think Regan will win 100, and Kaylee 200.

Andrew
3 months ago

This is absolutely crazy to have happened and it seems impossible to happen in any men’s event

Closest I could think of was men’s 1 breast with 2 from any combo GB/China/Netherlands/Germany/US/Italy but that would require some studs missing finals

thezwimmer
Reply to  Andrew
3 months ago

In London 2012, the men’s 200 breast was contained five countries: 2xGB (Jamieson, Willis), 2xUSA (Weltz, Burkle), 2xJPN (Kitajima, Tateishi), 1xHUN (Gyurta), and 1xAUS (Rickard). The other Hungarian swimmer was 20th in prelims, and there was no other Aussie.

Anybody have some other recent examples?

Swammer
3 months ago

Aus, US, US in that order

mahmoud
Reply to  Swammer
3 months ago

Agree.

Troyy
Reply to  Swammer
3 months ago

Hope so but I’m not feeling confident at all.

mS424
Reply to  Troyy
3 months ago

why are you not feeling confident?

KSW
Reply to  Swammer
3 months ago

US, US, Can

Skip
Reply to  KSW
3 months ago

Aus, USA, Canada, USA, France, Aus, Canada, France

Oceanian
Reply to  KSW
3 months ago

lmao – fat chance of that

mahmoud
3 months ago

Two countries. Right now – Berkoff looks smoother than Masse for bronze and Kaylee and Regan basically swam the same time. I’m going to pick Kaylee for the win.

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Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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