5 Things to Watch for on Day 4 of the World Championships

Day 4 at the 2011 FINA World Aquatics Championships – Pool Swimming – will feature another very light preliminary schedule. The morning session will feature the women’s 50 back, men’s 100 free, women’s 200 fly, and men’s 200 IM.

Moving into the evening session, we will see the semifinals of each of the above races, plus four gold-medal finals:

• Men’s 200 fly
• Women’s 200 free
• Men’s 800 free
• Men’s 50 breast

As a reminder, the prelims session will begin at:

• 6PM Los Angeles Time (Western)
• 8PM Chicago Time (Central)
• 9PM New York Time (Eastern)
• 2AM London Time
• 3AM Johannesburg Time
• 9AM Shanghai Time
• 11AM Sydney Time

Finals will begin 9 hours after prelims begin, which means:

• 3AM Los Angeles Time (Western)
• 5AM Chicago Time (Central)
• 6AM New York Time (Eastern)
• 11AM London Time
• 12AM Johannesburg Time
• 6PM Shanghai Time 
• 8PM Sydney Time

1. No Rest for the Wicked – After they finished 1-2 in the men’s 200 free yesterday, Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps will be right back at it, dueling for 200 IM positions in the prelims and semi-finals. They enter the race as the #1 and #2 seeds in this race, which means that unlike the 200 free, they won’t meet until at least the semifinals here. Other swimmers to look out for here is a big first appearance, from Brazil’s Thiago Pereira (who was out early in the 100 backstroke, which he swam mostly to earn a relay spot); veteran Markus Rogan of Austria who has shifted his full focus to this 200 IM despite earning two Olympic medals in backstroke races; and the young stars Kenneth To (19) of Australia and Markus Deibler (21) of Germany who are both competing in their first World Championships with top-20 seeds.

2. Phelps’ First True Test – In his first individual final, the men’s 200 free, Michael Phelps was bested by teammate Ryan Lochte. Day 4 will give him a shot at the 200 fly title, as the only American in the final, which is the race of his that has been most heavily scrutinized in 2011. Also in the final will be top qualifier Takeshi Matsuda of Japan, who led the world in this event in 2010; and Wu Peng of China, who has beaten Phelps in two finals in this race this year. Don’t sleep on China’s Yin Chen  either, who in the semi-finals showed the increasingly-famous Chinese closing speed to take the 2nd-seed.

3. Pellegrini, Schmitt, Heemskerk – Those are the three swimmers that I’d expect to challenge for gold in the women’s 200 free. Italy’s Federica Pellegrini and the Netherlands’ Femke Heemskerk will be occupying the middle lanes, but after an atypically slow start in the semi-final for Allison Schmitt,  she”l be hugging an outside lane. This race will shape up very interestingly – Lanes 1 and 8 (Schmitt and German teenager Silke Lippok) will likely be at the lead of the race through 100 meters, along with Heemskerk. Pellegrini, the defending World Champ who already has a gold around her neck from this meet, is known to be a hard closer, and typically overtakes her competitors by coming hard off of the last turn. But with Lippok and especially Schmitt out of her clear field of vision, will it affect her ability to run them down? The outside lane, in this regard, could prove to be an advantage for Schmitt, but this is where good coaching needs to come in. The Italian staff needs to remind Pellegrini that even if she is able to catch Heemskerk, she still has to keep a lookout for Schmitt across the pool on the finish.

4. Men’s 50 breaststroke final- Some people really aren’t fans of these 50 meter events, especially here in the United States. I, for one, love them, because they go absolutely against the grain of the sport – the fastest, most talented, and best-trained athlete can finish first or dead last, regardless of whether they hit their taper, which is especially true in this 50 breaststroke where the timing of the touch is so crucial (and so cruel). You wouldn’t want an entire meet of them, but they’re an awesome complement to the typical Olympic schedule. In this race, two swimmers were already under the textile-best in the semifinals (Cameron van der Burgh of South Africa in 26.90 and Felipe Franca da Silva of Brazil in 26.95), and I’d say that at least three more would be disappointed to not break the magical 27-second barrier in finals (Alexander Dale Oen of Norway, Fabio Scozzoli of Italy, and Damir Dugonjic of Slovenia). The finishing order at the last World Championship was van der Burgh in gold and Silva in silver, and those two didn’t give up any ground after great early-round swims. They’ll be tough to eclipse here.

5. Men’s 100 free prelims and semis – Australia’s James Magnussen blew away the World when he swam a 47.49 100 freestyle to lead of Australia’s 400 free relay. That crushed by four-tenths the previous best swum in a textile suit by Pieter van den Hoogenband all the way back in 2000. As much as that swim means, and as much excitement it garnered him, it would probably earn twice the buzz if he could repeat it or beat it in the individual 100 free. As a youngster, he has to work to stay focused, but he’s got some great veteran teammates that will make sure that’s not an issue. Though he’s a clear favorite, he won’t be unchallenged. Other swimmers who had great relay swims (all on anchors) were France’s Fabien Gilot, the USA’s Nathan Adrian, and a throwback to 2007 champ Filippo Magnini of Italy. And of course there will be the ever-polarizing Cesar Cielo, who won the 50 fly but didn’t get to swim in the 400 free relay (as the Brazilian B-squad didn’t final). He did well enough in the 50 fly, but this 100 free will be a better test of his will-power. We haven’t seen Canada’s Brent Hayden swim yet meaningfully either, though he was the only swimmer in 2010 under 48 seconds. It’s been hard to gauge his season thus far, but with a time like that on his resume, he’s going to be a challenger.

Here’s some food for thought: Adrian’s training partner Graeme Moore of South Africa led off their relay in 48.16. In Santa Clara, he swam a 49.6. If Adrian sees a similar drop, that puts him very close to Magnussen’s 47.4 range. Do tapers work that simply? Absolutely not, but so far Cal swimmers have been nailing their tapers this meet, so don’t count Adrian out just yet.