2024 Worlds Preview: Douglass Looks to Repeat in 2 IM; 4 IM Promises All New Medalists.

2024 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• February 11th – February 18th (pool swimming)
• Doha, Qatar
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index

Kate Douglass (photo: Jack Spitser)

In the strangest World Championships in several generations, we will do our best to pick the medalists and finalists for the 2024 World Championships. It’s going to be weird and fun, all at the same time. Let’s dive in.

The women’s IMs are like A Tale of Two Cities. The 200 IM will be a solid and competitive field, with half the finalists from last year returning. Among those four are the gold medalist, Kate Douglass, and the bronze medalist, Yu Yiting. With only two other semi-finalists joining the quartet, the upper echelon of the field should be able to get through the prelims and semifinals with little difficulty.

The 400 IM, on the other hand, sees only two of the eight returning finalists, and neither podiumed, meaning the event is going to see a lot of new faces in the final. Veterans who may have been displaced by athletes in their prime or younger entrants who wouldn’t normally be afforded this opportunity may look at this event as their best chance to add a medal to their trophy collection.

200 IM – Golden Girls

BY THE NUMBERS — WOMEN’S 200 IM

• World Record: Katinka Hosszu (HUN) – 2:06.12 (2015)
• World Junior Record: Summer McIntosh (CAN) – 2:06.89 (2023)
• Championship Record: Katinka Hosszu (HUN) – 2:06.12 (2015)
• 2023 World Champion: Kate Douglass (USA) – 2:07.17

The Field:

Before the entries list came out for the event last summer, the 200 IM was expected by the swimming community to be a four-way slugfest between teen phenom Summer McIntosh, Australian superstar Kaylee McKeown, and the American Olympic medalist pair of Kate Douglass and Alex Walsh.

Unfortunately, it was not to be, as McIntosh withdrew from the race pre-meet, and McKeown was one of several disqualifications in the semi-finals. Kate Douglass would end up winning by nearly a second over UVA and Team USA teammate Alex Walsh and enters Doha as a heavy favorite.

Douglass opted not to swim the World Cup circuit this fall, instead focusing on her training and the US Open, where this past December, she claimed first place in a time of 2:08.46. A time that, by all considerations, would be considered very fast if it were not for her performance a few weeks later in Knoxville.Over the weekend in Knoxville, she posted a time of 2:07.89 in the 200 IM (in a time trial), as well as putting a PB in the 100 breast and just casually breaking the American record in the 200 breast.

World Aquatics Championships
Fukuoka (JPN)
14-30 JULY 2023

Over the course of 200 meters, swimming an in-season time within a second of the winning time would typically be a cause for celebration. Still, Douglass only sits 5th in the world rankings this year and not even first among those swimmers headed to Doha.

One spot ahead of her in those rankings is the reigning bronze medalist, Yu Yiting. Yu swam a 2:07.75 in September to set a new Asian Games record. Her time was clear of fellow returning Words finalist Kim Seo-yeong by over 2.5 seconds. However, it should be noted that many Chinese athletes targeted the home Asian Games as their main meet of the year, so results need to be viewed in such light. Yu is entered with a 2:10.69 from the Chinese selection meet, one of the few nations that held one, so she will appear further down the heat sheet than her past performances reflect and could knock Douglass off the top of the podium if the American were to falter.

Despite the conditions in which Yu swam, she is not the only member in the season’s top ten who will look to medal at Worlds. Both Sydney Pickrem, who withdrew from the 2023 Worlds entirely, and Israeli swimmer Anastasia Gorbenko have swum sub 2:10 times this season, with the Canadian winning the Pan-Ams in a new games record time of 2:09.04 and Gorbenko taking 4th behind Douglass at the US Open in a time of 2:09.38. Pickrem has a strong breaststroke, and Gorbenko excels in the middle two strokes and will contrast with the strong fly that Yu will use to try to get a lead.

A quarter of Europeans will look to join the five mentioned above, led by the Dutch versatile star Marrit Steenbergen. Entering at the 3rd seed with an entry time of 2:09.16 dating back to April of last year. Should she be able to replicate that time, she could be in the hunt for a bronze medal but would need to fend off the like of Italian Sara Franceschi, who was dq’ed in the semifinals but swam a 2:10.68 in the prelims. Charlotte Bonnett also will look to take a crack at making the final, entering as the 8th seed with an entry time of 2:10.64, but failed to advance out of the prelims, swimming a 2:13.28 to finish tied for 17th. Joining the fray after not swimming the event last summer is Brit Abbie Wood. Wood, the 6th seed and a 2020 Olympian won the 200 IM at Short Course Euros and will look to carry that success to Doha.

Dark Horse–  Ashley McMillan (CAN) – The 2nd of the entrants from Canada, Ashley McMillian is still just a teenager; she turns 20 in March and is making her Long Course Champs debut. Seeded 11th in a time of 2:11.44 from Canadian Champs this past August, She swam 2:13.09 to finish 8th at the US Open and just last month placed 4th in the event at the Knoxville Pro Swim in a time of 2:13.38. McMillian has her work cut out for her as swimmers like Yu, Kim, and Letitia Sim, among others, are entered in times from meets they might not have fully rested for.

400 IM – New Girl

BY THE NUMBERS — WOMEN’S 400 IM

• World Record: Summer McIntosh (CAN) – 4:25.87 (2023)
• World Junior Record: Summer McIntosh (CAN) – 4:25.87 (2023)
• Championship Record: Summer McIntosh (CAN) – 4:27.11 (2023)
• 2023 World Champion: Summer McIntosh (CAN) –  4:27.11

The Field:

The women’s 400 IM is a vastly different race than the 200 IM—only two return from the final and neither of those medaled. With a short turn-around between World Champs and the lack of qualifying meets, many swimmers may not have many 400 IM times in the intervening months.

2023 European SC Swimming Championship
courtesy of LEN European Aquatics

On paper, the front runners are the two returning finalists. Heading up that charge is British swimmer Freya Colbert. Colbert, the 2022 European bronze medalist in this event, has an entry time and personal best of 4:35.28 from her 5th-place finish last summer in the 400 IM. Colbert, a member of many 4×200 free relays for Team GB, has made remarkable improvements in the events, placing 12th in 2022 in a time ten full seconds slower. While a 4:35.88 may not medal at the Olympics, come summer, if Colbert can keep up the time drops, this meet may be a stepping stone to being in contention for the Olympic final.

Looking to do the same is fellow 2023 finalist Sara Franceschi. The Italian, who finished 2nd in the short course 400 at Worlds in 2022, will be looking to improve upon her 7th place finish from Fukuoka. Her best time of 4:35.98 from the Italian national champs is just .10 off of Colbert’s but nearly two seconds faster than her time from Fukuoka.

Three other swimmers join the Europeans with entry times under 4:40. Leading the way is the young Canadian Ella Jansen. The Tennesse commit is entered with a time of 4:37.35, her personal best, from her silver medal-winning performance at Junior Worlds. Jansen, who finished 17th at World with a time of 4:43.35, dropped exactly six seconds over the course of a few months. More recently, Jansen swam 4:44.97 at the US Open, placing 5th, over three seconds ahead of fellow junior swimmer Lilla Bognar.

Frenchwoman Cyrielle Duhamel and Australian Kiah Melverton enter as the 4th and 5th seeds with times of 4:39.38 and 4:39.65, respectively. Both were in the field in Fukuoka but could not replicate their times from their qualifying meet, with Melverton finishing 13th in 4:41.96 and Duhamel 20th in 4:45.32.

19th FINA World Swimming Championship, Budapest, 2022
courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Israeli swimmer Anastasia Gorbenko may pose the most danger to Colbert and Franceschi’s golden aspirations. Gorbenko is seeded with a 4:40.76, dating back to May of 2023, which ranks her as the 7th seed. However, Gorbenko has already surpassed that time by virtue of her runner-up finish at the US Open. Her time there was 4:37.90, and she ranks as the 5th fastest in the world this season. Gorbenko is the only swimmer entered in the field with a top eight time, let alone in the top ten. The next closest on the list is the 13th-ranked Bolgarka Kapas.

Kapas, who sits one line above Gorbenko in the Entry Lists, has a time of 4:40.06 from June of this year. The Hungarian did not contest the 400 IM last year, swimming only the 200 fly. This season already, she has swum 4:41.50 from the Gyor Open this past December and looks to be in good shape to make a run at the minor medals. Joining Kapas in the top twenty is Canadian Tessa Cieplucha.

Coming in one spot lower, #14, and just .04 behind at 4:41.54, the former Tennesse Vol finds herself as the 12th seed by virtue of her 4:42.81 seed time. Cieplucha, who won the IM at the Knoxville Pro Swim Series by over three seconds, has a personal best of 4:37.26 from the Canadian Olympic Trials in 2021, and if she can get back close to that time, could easily be in the hunt for a medal.

Getting lost in this discussion is the 8th seed, Japan’s Ichika Kajimoto. Entered with a time of 4:40.76, the Japanese swimmer did not contest the event last year as Japan entered Mio Narita and Ageha Tanigawa. Kajimoto is one of the few swimmers in the field to make the season’s top 30, clocking in at #21 with a time of 4:43.62 from the Tokyo Open.

The 400 IM could see many young swimmers make a finals appearance. Americans Lilla Bognar, Kayla Han, and Argentian Agostina Hein could make some waves in the coming years but must first get through a crowded field. Of the three, Bognar has the fastest entry time, 4:40.97, but 6th and 9th place are all in the 4:40 range, meaning one (or more) will likely miss the final.

Dark Horse– Mao Yihan (CHN) – The 15th seed, Mao Yihan, is just 14 years old but is already making a name for herself. The Chinese swimmer placed 2nd in the 800 at Junior Worlds and 3rd in the 1500. She finished 5th in the finals of the 400 IM, behind Jansen and Bognar, in a time of 4:48.14. More recently, at the Chinese National Championships, Mao swam 4:44.40, dropping over three seconds. While another large drop may seem unlikely, it is not unheard of.