2024 Olympics Previews: Versatility & Volatility the Name of the Game in Mixed Medley Relay

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Mixed 400 Medley Relay — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 3:37.58 – Great Britain: K. Dawson, A. Peaty, J. Guy, A. Hopkin (2021)
• World Junior Record: 3:44.84 – USA: W. Grant, J. Matheny, T. Huske, G. Walsh (2019)
• Olympic Record: 3:37.58 – Great Britain: K. Dawson, A. Peaty, J. Guy, A. Hopkin (2021)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: Great Britain: K. Dawson, A. Peaty, J. Guy, A. Hopkin – 3:37.58 

While the Mixed Medley relay approaches double-digits in age at the World Championships level, having debuted back in 2015, this will be just the second iteration of the event at the Olympics as it made its debut back in Tokyo.

At the Olympics, the British team of Kathleen Dawson (58.80), Adam Peaty (56.78), James Guy (50.00), and Anna Hopkin (52.00) swam to a debut Olympic record time of  3:37.58, a mark that also notably also reclaimed the World Record from China.  The Brits first set it in 2014 and then lowered it again at its debut at Worlds back in 2015. China would wind up settling for the silver with the Australian just .o9 behind. The US, after qualifying 2nd into the final fell off the podium, finishing just 5th.

(photo: Jack Spitser)

While the British return all four of their legs from Tokyo, injuries have severely hampered their chances of repeating, and it seems that recent individual world records by Australia, China, and the United States likely give them an advantage to podium.

In a relay where there are six possible combinations of gender order per relay and with eight lanes in the final, there exist 1,679,616 different possible combinations. (In consultation with people smarter than me, Barry Revzin pointed out that while that number is correct, it only applies to the relay being MMFF or MFMF, so the number could be much higher if one were to include different swimmers in the relays, ie Walsh or Huske on the fly leg. Laura Rosado concluded with, “This is why mixed medleys make my head hurt,” and I concur.

Fortunately, we won’t go that far in depth. Many teams are likely set in a specific one or two relay orders, but the medalists from the past three worlds have the flexibility to put forth any relay combination and still have the potential to medal, but some combinations are far more likely to do so. Therefore, it is key to find the best possible combination beforehand but also to know that as a swimmer’s form can change throughout the week, relay line-ups must remain fluid, so what we may predict likely could change. Fortunately for all the coaching staffs, with the relay being later in the schedule, all of the 100, save the men’s 100 fly, which is in the same session, will have been completed before the finals of this race, so they will have all the information to work with.

2 Fast 2 Furious

The past two winners of the World Championships have been (from most recent on down) the United States and China.  As such, we will tackle the teams in that order.

USA

The USA looks poised to erase the memories of 2021 from their memory as their mixed relay finished a disappointing 5th. The event, while only having made its debut in 2021, is the only event on the Olympic schedule (pool) that the US has not medaled in, but recent results seem to point to that fun fact ending.

The 2024 World Championships in Doha were a result of the postponement of the Olympics and from the subsequent postponement of the Fukuoka World Championships to 2023. As such, with it being an Olympic year, the 2024 Worlds were sparsely attended, and the US sent a team of just eight women. However, the strength of Torri Huske and Claire Curzan, who joined with Hunter Armstrong and Nic Fink to comprise the relay, was enough to pull off the win in 3:38.79, beating out Australia by over 2.5 seconds. It was a very strong result for the team, especially coming off of the disa

While three-quarters of that relay will be in Paris, it’s unlikely we will see Armstrong or Huske, as they finished second at trials to Ryan Murphy and Gretchen Walsh, respectively, and when we look at the math, the MMFF order doesn’t add up, to be the fastest time.

Gretchen Walsh (photo: Jack Spitser)

While a little unorthodox, the FMFM order makes sense. Both Regan Smith and Gretchen Walsh broke their respective World Records in their events, and keeping Fink on the breaststroke may help alleviate some of the troubles the US ran into in Tokyo when they used a female breaststroker.

The FMFM quartet’s time as taken from the finals of the events, added to 3:38.90, and all but Smith were faster in the semifinals, so with that factored in and a conservative 1.2 seconds taken off for relay exchanges, the US could be looking past the World Record of 3:37.58 and at sub-3:37 times (if they are firing on all cylinders).

In fact, the traditional MMFF order would be just the third fastest of the possible combinations, as Smith, Fink, Caeleb Dressel, and Kate Douglass (FMMF) have a cumulative add-up time of 3:38.96, just .06 behind the FMFM order.

That said, the best possible times do not take into account any potential doubles, which the US coaching staff may wish to avoid. The heats of the event take place on Day 7, with the finals occurring the next night on Day 8. Also contested on the evening of Day 8 is the final of the men’s 100 fly, the semis of the women’s 50 free, and the finals of the women’s 200 IM. Walsh most likely has the 50 free semis, Douglass, the 200 IM final, and Dressel the 100 fly, so the US could opt to use Huske in place of either Walsh or Douglass, but with an approximate hour between the 50 free and the relay, Walsh should be fine to double and keep the FMFM order.

CHINA

Last year, on the backs of a resurgent Xu Jiayu (52.42) and a dominant performance by Qin Haiyang (57.31), the Chinese pair of Zhang Yufei (55.69) and Cheng Yujie (53.15) brought the relay home to the win in a time of 3:38.57, just shy of their national record of 3:38.41 from the Chinese Championships back in 2020, but faster than their silver medal-winning performance of 3:38.86 from the Olympics.

Over the past 12 months Qin set a new world record in the 200 breaststroke and become the dominant force in the stroke. Pan Zhanle, even more recently, broke the World record in the 100 free, swimming 46.80 in Doha; however, whereas the US’s best mathematical chance of victory resides in using both of their recent record breakers, the Chinese best chances do not.

The math (using times from trials) points out to the Chinese sticking with their MMFF line-up but replacing Cheng Yujie with Yang Junxuan, who recently broke the national record in the 100 free as she posted a new mark of 52.68. With Yang anchoring, the quartet’s time from trials added up to 3:39.67, and with relay exchanges, the group would be right back around 3:38.40, and both Qin and Zhang were off their season’s best at trials, so they could be looking at a sub 3:38 time.

If the Chinese wish to use Pan, then the fastest relay combination would leave off Qin as the relay combo of MFFM has an additive time of 3:40.11.

The Chinese have a little less flexibility than their American counterparts, as their women’s 100 backstroker, Wan Letian, and their male butterflier, Wang Changhao, while making great strides recently, cannot yet compete with the other great female backstrokers and male butterfliers.

Silver Streak

While not a winner perse, the Australians have been the most consistent at the international level in this event, having won silver at the past three editions of the World Championships and claiming the bronze at the 2021 Olympics.

photo credit Marcus Chen Photography

The Australias employed the FMMF relay order in each iteration, save 2024, which is a bit of an outlier. While they have the flexibility afforded to play with their line-ups, the Australians playing to their strengths and covering their weaknesses lead to one conclusion. The women’s sprint freestyle and butterfly have long been a source of medals for the team, and with the weakness in breaststroke, the relay has always employed a male breaststroker, and this year appears to be no different.

While it never seemed in doubt, Sam Williamson‘s All-Comers record in the 100 breast of 58.80 further cemented his role as the key leg on the relay. With the Australian men having a weakness in the backstroke, Issac Cooper won trials in just 53.46; it looks like former World Record Holder Kaylee McKeown will be the most likely to swim the backstroke leg.

However, as noted above with Douglass, McKeown, who is the third fastest 200 IMer in history thanks to her 2:06.63, will also have to deal with a potential double. But unlike her rival, McKeown may have to push through it. They could bring in Iona Anderson, who placed third in the individual 100, but Australia would be going back by nearly a second, if not more, if they made that move.

A more radical approach would be to use Mollie O’Callaghan on the backstroke (PB of 57.88) and then have Shayna Jack anchor the relay, but with MOC dropping the individual 100, she might not be doing any backstroke training in the lead-up to the Games.

If McKeown does swim the 200 IM finals and the relay, then expect to see her, Williams, Matt Temple and MOC as the likely relay. The quartet’s time adds up to 3:39.69 which puts them in a dangerous battle with China as they sit just .02 behind.

The Lion in Winter

The Brits, the reigning Olympic Champions and holders of the world record, return to medal conversation after having been left out in the cold and off the podium in both 2022 and 2023. The team of Medi Harris (1:00.28), Peaty (59.42), Matthew Richards (52.87) and Hopkin (52.52) claimed a victory this past winter in Doha, as the foursome earned the bronze medal in a time of 3:45.09.

While the time was slower than their 5th-place finish in 2023 (3:43.20), it was a strong return for Peaty, who exploded to a 57.94 a few months later at his trials. However, Peaty’s improvements alone won’t be enough to get the team back to the top.

In 2021, the Brits employed as FMMF order, but both Dawson and Harris, (who was on the relay in 2023), have been off their form lately, with the former recovering from back injuries and with the improvements in the men’s backstroke, the Brits may switch it up. Oliver Morgan, on his way to sweeping both backstroke at the Aquatics GB Championships, set a new national record of 52.70. However, positive movement in the back means a negative movement in the fly as the Brits would be forced to use a female butterflier (if they wish to keep Peaty), and Keanna MacInnes was just 57.92 in the individual 100 fly.

If they keep to using a female backstroker, then Joe Litchfield would get the nod to swim the fly. Like MacInnes, his winning time of 51.71 just isn’t speedy enough to compete with the other teams employing a male butterflier. However, Great Britain has some other strategies they could employ, namely using James Guy, who was a part of that relay in 2021 and split 50.00 but only qualified for the Olympics as a relay swimmer in the 4×200 free. (Guy placed 5th in the 100 fly at the Aquatics GB in a time of 52.29, but because he was on the roster and had already swum an OQT of 51.43 in Fukuoka, he has also added the individual event)

The fastest time that I could come up with (again, only using flat starts from trials meets) was 3:41.89, employing the MMFF order. If they swap the back and fly position (the next fastest combination), one gets a time of 3:42.72. Both times are faster than their 5th-place finish from the Worlds in 2023, but they will need to be under 3:40 to medal.

The Usual Suspects

After those four teams, there is a run of teams that are consistently at or near the top of the rankings in either the women’s or men’s medley relay (or both).

Women 

SWIM CANADA BELL TRIALS 2024

The teams from  Canada and Sweden easily fall into this category. Each team has collected medals in the relays, be it at the long course or short course Worlds. Of the two, the Canadian women have the deepest pedigree, having won bronze at the last three Worlds. That said, they have not been able to get the support needed from the men as they failed to make the final at the Olympics in 2021 and at the Worlds in 2022 and 2024. Their best showing was in 2023, where they finished 6th in the final (3:43.72), employing an FMFM order of Kylie Masse (59.19), James Dergousoff (1:00.69), Maggie MacNeil (56.30), Ruslan Gaziev (47.54).

Sweden, which medaled in the women’s medley relay back in 2015, has most of their strength coming from the women’s team, especially seeing as the men failed to qualify for a medley relay of their own. In 2023, Sweden’s mixed medley finished 9th, just outside of making the finals in a time of 3:45.85, using the team of Hanna Rosvall (1:00.37), Erik Persson (1:00.12), Louise Hansson (57.05) and Bjorn Seeliger (48.31).

In comparing the two, Canada has a much larger upside.  Besides having a faster time and Masse’s re-emergence, Josh Liendo‘s versatility gives a massive edge. He could slot into the fly and have MacNeil or Oleksiak anchor, or he could swim the free (which seems more likely) as he swam 47.55 at the Canadian Trials. If we keep the traditional FMFM format favored by the Canadians, the squad of Masse (57.94), Finlay Knox (1:00.66), MacNeil (56.61), and Liendo (47.55) have a summed time of 3:42.76. That said, Liendo would have the 100-fly finals earlier in the session to contend with.

The Swedes, on the other hand, are constrained by their small roster size and their strokes. The Swedish men only have three individual swimmers, and each is either contesting freestyle or breaststroke. This leaves the backstroke (a weakness) and the fly (a strength) for the women. Louise Hansson has taken on the fly duties at the past two Worlds and while Sjostrom could probably produce a faster split, with a conflict with the 50 free, it seems unlikely that she’ll be a part of it.

Men

While less lopsided than the team from Sweden, the French and Italian teams certainly have more strength in their men’s medley legs. The Italian men won silver in the medley in Tokyo and claimed the top spot at the 2022 Worlds, whereas the women placed 6th and 7th over the same span. It’s not as if the Italian women aren’t a force to be reckoned with, but since the retirement of Federica Pellegrini, they have yet to find a true replacement and have been hampered by the lack of a sprint backstroker.

(Photo by Patrick B. Kraemer / MAGICPBK)

At the 2021 Olympics the Italian used a MMFF order and finished 4th in a time of 3:39.28.  At the 2022 Worlds, they slipped to 5th (3:41.67) and, last summer, tumbled out of the final, finishing 11th overall in 3:46.08. If the Italians opt to use the same order, they certainly have the firepower in Thomas Ceccon and Nicolo Martinenghi to be a force on the front half, and Chiara Tarantino could be an improvement on the back half, but they may need to use their best swimmers in prelims if they wish to make the final.

France did not field a mixed relay at either the 2021 Olympics or at the 2022 Worlds, so their performance in 2023 is hard to compare to historical trends. The team finished in 10th with a time of 3:46.07, but outside of Beryl Gastaldello‘s 52.82 anchor, the rest of the team was much slower. France used an FMMF order and likely would do the same should they, like Italy, make the final. Emma Terebo, fresh off a national record in the 100 back, would chop over 1.5 seconds off that time from 2023, and both Leon Marchand and Maxime Grousset would be big steps up for the middle two legs, but the French may need to use their A-squad to make the final.

Both

Nyls Korstanje (photo: Jack Spitser)

While the Dutch women haven’t recently reached the podium in the medley relay, the men have, as they claimed silver in Doha in a National record time of 3:31.23. The mixed medley takes 3/4 of the Dutch strengths and leaves just the backstroke up in the air. Back in 2022, Kira Toussaint (59.72), Arno Kamminga (58.28), Nyls Korstanje (50.99), and Marrit Steenbergen (52.55) combined to take the bronze in 3:41.54, coming from behind to beat both Great Britain and Italy. A year later, in 2023, and with Maaike de Waard leading off (1:00.65), the Dutch finished in 4th in 3:41.81. After a disqualification in Doha, the mixed medley relay will look to bounce back. One may be tempted to deviate from the FMMF order, but employing Kai van Westering and Tes Schouten and using a MFMF order would get a slower time by over a second than if they kept de Waard and Kamminga.

Japan also finds itself in contention for the final. Both the men’s and women’s medley relay have been perennial finalists at Worlds, but each lacks the strength across all four strokes to medal. In the mixed relay, Japan, after not fielding a relay in Tokyo, finished 7th in 2022 (3:45.28), 7th in 2023 (3:45.33), and 8th in 2024 (3:47.60). Much of Japan’s success in the relay has come from Ryosuke Irie, but with his recent retirement, the Japanese will have no individual entrants in either the Men’s or Women’s individual 100 back, so will be behind the field from the get-go.

An Unexpected Journey

Two neighboring nations have surged recently and threaten the established list of finalist. Germany burst through in 2022, finishing in 8th (3:46.64), and repeated in 2023, albeit faster, in 3:45.62. While they shifted from MFFM to MMFF, much of the improvement can be attributed to Angelina Kohler, who went from a split of 58.39 in 2022 to 56.74 last summer. In Doha, Kohler won the 100 fly in 56.28, and with her 56.11 from the semifinal, she could easily lop off another second from her nation’s time.

On Germany’s eastern border, Poland has burst into the picture. After a DQ in 2021 and not fielding a team in 2022, Poland finished 12th in 2023 (3:46.29) but took advantage of the additional opportunity to qualify for the games in Doha, where the Poles finished 4th with a time of 3:46.04, less than a second out of the medals. 2024 has been a strong year for Poland. Despite smaller and less competitive fields at Worlds and Euros, their entire mixed medley roster of Ksawery Masiuk (53.39), Dominika Sztandera (1:06.98), Jakub Majerski (51.05), and Katarzyna Wasick (54.62), medaled at either of both of those meets, with Majerski winning bronze at Worlds in the 100 fly.

The Verdict

This relay either makes me “throw my hands up in the air, sometimes saying, “Ayo, gotta let go” or throw them up in frustration. Despite being around for close to a decade, the relay still gets treated as less important by some nations, at least at the World Championships level, where when events need to be dropped for the sake of load management, this relay appears at the top of the list. Perhaps it’s due to the fact that it is so variable in its configuration, but because of that, it makes predicting it so much harder.

While we have MOC as the fastest swimmer for Australia on the free leg this year, she did not participate in the relay last summer, instead opting to use Shayna Jack for the freestyle leg. While that one decision doesn’t on the face change much, if say, Germany opts to use their new national record holder in the 100 free, Josha Salchow, then they must change the front end of the relay and use a female backstroker or breaststroke, which then changes more.

While predicting the relays’ volatility and variability can be a massive headache, they also make for some of the most compelling swimming to watch as a fan. Seeing Adam Peaty try to chase Lilly King or seeing how much ground Caeleb Dressel can regain on Emma McKeon makes for fascinating and entirely unpredictable viewing.

With all that in mind, we think that the top three are relatively stable. While China won in 2023 and the US placed third, we think the US will make the big leap up and claim their first Olympic medal in the event. The US has played around with relay order in the past, using an MFFM in 2021 and, before that, an MFMF in 2019, but has for the past three Worlds used MMFF (at least in finals). However, with world records by Smith and Walsh, FMFM adds up to the fastest time. If they do go with that, it wouldn’t surprise me if they swim MFMF in prelims to give swimmers like Ryan Murphy and Lilly King another shot at a medal.

After the US, China and Australia are separated by just .02 if their times from Trials are summed and while MOC was a little off her best, so too was Qin and with the improvement by the Yang on the anchor leg, China, who beat Australia by .46 last summer is likely to do so again.

After those three, its a quagmire. Great Britain, with Peaty’s return, seems to be above the rest of the field, but the struggles in the 100 fly are a cause for concern. If Hopkin can get back down to the 52.00 she had in 2021, they would be a lock for the top four, but as they stand now, we will precariously put them 4th.

The Dutch likely will compete with the Brits but will be dependent upon a strong backstroke split. If Toussaint or de Waard can get back down to 59 mids they will be close to the Brits, but they must also contend with Steenbergen likely doubling with the 200 IM.

After the top 5, the remaining three picks are essentially slightly less educated guesses. It all depends on how stacked they make their prelims relays. It’s been mentioned before when I’ve written relay previews, but while we are predicting the order of finish of finals, we also need to try to guess who swims in prelims, and with such many possible relay combinations, it is nigh on impossible to come to any firm conclusions, but in front of a home crowd, France may seek more motivation to field a strong prelims team than other nations.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Israel – Just the 15th of 16 seeds, Israel seems to be quite a longshot to make the final as their 3:47.76 entry time will have them swimming out of lane 8 in the prelims. However, if you have a lane, you have a chance. The front half of Anastasia Gorbenko and Ron Polonsky may be strong enough to power them into the final, especially as each was over a quarter of a second faster at the 2024 Europeans than at the 2023 Worlds.  The pair, along with Gal Cohen Groumi and Andrea Murez, won gold in Belgrade in 3:45.74, a time that would have moved them up to 9th in Fukuoka.