2024 Olympics Previews: “The Livin is Easy” for McIntosh in a Youth Filled 400 IM Field

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
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WOMEN’S 400 Individual Medley — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 4:24.38 – Summer McIntosh, CAN (2024) 
• World Junior Record: 4:24.38 – Summer McIntosh, CAN (2024) 
• Olympic Record: 4:26.36 – Katinka Hosszu, HUN (2016)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: Yui Ohashi, JPN – 4:32.08

The Women’s 400 IM, from just three years ago in Tokyo to just days away from the start of the next games (ie when you , has undergone a massive change. Not only are we talking about the rise of teen phenom Summer McIntosh, who has brought the World Record to new heights (although if we are being literal, it would also be to new lows, right?)

Three years ago, Japan’s Yui Ohashi swam her way to an Olympic gold medal on home soil. She took over the lead by the 250 turn and never looked back, posting a time of 4:32.08. American Emma Weyant tried her best to close the gap out splitting the Japanese swimmers by 1.38 on the last 50 alone, but was in too much of a deficit as she finished in 4:32.76, which was good for silver. Behind Weyant, her compatriot Hali Flickinger, a butterfly specialist who branched out into the mid-frees as well as the 400 IM, nabbed the bronze in 4:34.90.

However, despite a shortened quad cycle, of the medalist, only Weyant has returned to the Olympics. In fact, Weyant is the only returning finalist, and of the 18 swimmers in the event, only three appear on the entry lists: Weyant, Sara Franceschi (9th in Tokyo), and Anja Crevar (10th in Tokyo).

Part of the change comes from retirements as bronze medalist Flickinger and 7th place finisher Aimee Willmott have retired, another from swimmers dealing with breaks and injuries like former world record holder Katinka Hosszu, Mireia Belmonte, and Ohashi failing to qualify.

A third and more prescient issue is that the event has seen a surge of young talent come to the forefront and take charge of the event. Foremost of them is Canada’s McIntosh, who made her Olympic debut at the age of 14.

McIntosh won the event at the 2022 Worlds in 4:32.04 and just a few months later broke the World Junior Record and Americas record at the 2022 Commonwealth Games, where she posted a time of 4:29.01. The next year, she smashed the world record at the Canadian Trials, becoming the first and only swimmer to break 4:26, recording a new best-of 4:25.87. She picked up another World gold in Fukuoka, winning in 4:27.11, which brings us to the present time.

“Summertime”

(NO REGRETS)

Entering this season, McIntosh swam a casual 4:29.96 at the US Open this past December, her then-sixth-fastest time, to win by nearly eight seconds over Israel’s Anastasia Gorbenko. Fast-forward to 2024 and the Canadian Olympic Trials, and expectations were high on the teenager. The previous year, she set the World Record, and while her qualification for the Olympics was never in doubt, questions remained as to whether she was fully rested. After posting the fastest time in the world in the 400 free but publicly stating she was unhappy with it, McIntosh’s outlook on breaking the record seemed low.

But she proved everyone and perhaps herself a little wrong as she demolished her record by over a second, recording an unfathomable time of 4:24.38.

Much of the difference between her world records can be seen in her breaststroke splits. The differential was 1.79, and while she was slower on the freestyle, the differential was only .39.

The new time not only makes her the first swimmer under 4:25 but the fastest swimmer by also two full seconds, and when compared to swimmers in the Olympic field, she is clear by 7.03. In Paris, McIntosh is entered in the 400 Free, 200 Fly, and 200 IM as well (in addition to any possible relays), but with the 400 IM occurring on the 3rd day and with a full day’s rest after the 400 free, McIntosh should face no struggles in winning the gold medal.

One could have spent a lot more time talking about Summer McIntosh, but her results speak for themselves, and as much as she has changed the event, in reality it hasn’t changed all that much.

Genesis/Realiti

At the 2012 Olympics, the first after the ban on super suits, China’s Ye Shiwen dropped a hammer of a last 100, splitting 58.68 to record a new world record of 4:28.43. In 2016, Hosszu dropped more than two seconds off that mark to record a time of 4:26.36. 2021, winning time can be considered an outlier, and while the trend from 2008 to 2012 to 2016 to 2021 to 2024 is downward, the times for silver and gold have been rather stagnant, if not moving in the opposite direction.

To be fair, it is tough to fully discern if the event is stagnant besides McIntosh, as the 2022 Worlds, were not attended by every nation, with both Commonwealth Games and European Champions occurring that same summer and with the 2024 Worlds also being sparsely attended. However, the 2023 silver and bronze medal-winning times of 4:31.41 and 4:32.30 would fall right in line with the chart above.

Katie Grimes (photo: Jack Spitser)

However, that said, those medalists from 2023 are 18 and 21, respectively, and maybe can push the event to new levels across the board instead of just at the top.

Like McIntosh, Katie Grimes burst onto the scene at 15 when she qualified for the US Olympic team in the 800 free, finishing fourth in Tokyo. Grimes, who appeared at first to be a distance and open water swimmer, added the 400 IM to her repertoire and won back-to-back silver medals at the 2022 and 2023 Worlds, recording a time of 4:31.41 in Fukuoka to become the 4th fastest American of all time.

Entering this season and the Olympic Trials, Grimes, who was the first American swimmer to qualify for the Olympics, courtesy of her open-water performances, was a favorite to make the US team. She was 4:32.45 a month before trials and had a massive lead based on season-best times over her competition. However, Grimes was just 4:35.00 at Trials, a far cry from her time from Worlds and slower than the 4:33.80 she swam at the US Nationals the summer before a time period in which her coach said she would not be fully tapered until these Olympics.

The 4:35 could be a cause for concern, but likely, she swam just enough to make the team in the event. In the more competitive events at Trials, she swam personal bests in the 200 free and 200 back, so with much less swimming on tap, she should be more rested to tackle the IM.

World Aquatics Championships
Fukuoka (JPN)
14-30 JULY 2023

Last summer’s bronze medalist, Jenna Forrester, had a similar experience at her trials. In 2022, Forrester finished 7th in a time of 4:42.39 but exploded to a personal best and bronze medal in Fukuoka, touching the wall in 4:32.30.

After initially appearing on the roster for the 2024 World, Forrester withdrew from the meet and, entering the Australia trials in early June, seemed to be on track to make the Olympics in multiple events.

In the 200 IM, she was the 2nd seed but added close to three seconds to her entry time. In the 200 free, she added over six seconds to her seed time, entering as the 10th seed but falling to 34th.  With the 400 IM on the last day, Forrester pulled it, swimming 4:38.16 in the finals to finish behind 19-year-old Ella Ramsay‘s 4:36.56, just barely clipping the Swim Australia mandated time of 4:38.53.

Ramsay herself could be a contender for the finals. In addition to the PB in the 400, she swam a new best of 2:09.32 in the 200 IM and won the 200 breast in 2:22.87, a massive new PB of close the three seconds, to bring her total of individual events to three. While it will be her first Olympics, Ramsay does have international competition under her belt. In 2022, when Australia sent squads to both Worlds and Commonwealths, Ramsay made the semifinals of the 200 IM in Budapest, finishing 15th.

Silver Lining

While McIntosh is the heavy favorite, perhaps the heaviest favorite among all the individual events, the spots for the other medals are up for grabs. Outside of Grimes, no other swimmer has been under 4:32.

Emma Weyant (photo: Jack Spitser)

Looking at recent medalists, and especially the 2024 Worlds, which saw a trio of new faces, the minor medals could be won by anyone and 2021 silver medalist Weyant looks poised to repeat on the podium.After the silver in Tokyo, Weyant, who now swims collegiately for the Florida Gators, earned a bronze at the 2022 Worlds, albeit more than three seconds slower than her Tokyo time. 2023 Summer Nationals, saw her disqualified in this event and fail to qualify for the Worlds team.

Entering the 2024 US Trials, Weyant appeared to be on a mission. She qualified first into the finals, posting a prelims time of 4:38.96 and then lowering it to 4:35.56 in the finals, finishing just half a second behind Grimes. Weyant actually led Grimes by half a second at the 300 turn, but was past in the last 50.

Weyant’s time at the Trials was slower than her trials time from 2021, but like Grimes, she had earlier in the season put up several personal bests. In yards, at the NCAA, Weyant put up PBs in the 500 and 1650 free as well as in the 400 IM, placing 2nd in the IM and 500.

With a smaller field in 2024 and all the 2023 medalists absent, three swimmers took the most of the opportunity.

FREYA COLBERT courtesy of LEN European Aquatics

Leading the charge was Freya Colbert. The Brit, who finished 5th at the 2023 Worlds in 4:35.28, was a little slower, finishing in 4:37.14, but in a time worthy of the gold medal. Perhaps a confidence boost, or perhaps just a sign of her preparation, but Colbert exploded to a new personal best at the British Trials in April. Her time of 4:34.01 easily won the event, beating out Katie Shanahan by over two and a half seconds, and now ranks the 4th fastest time in the world this season.

Behind her, in Doha, Israel’s Anastasia Gorbenko swam a personal best and national record of 4:37.36, throwing her name into contention for the Olympics. However, like Colbert, she has further lowered that time, swimming the 5th fastest time in the season, recording a mark of 4:34.87. Over the course of the Mare Nostrum tour, she set new marks across multiple events, including both IMs and the 200 back.

While Colbert and Gorbenko will compete in multiple events and both will be key relay legs for their teams, with the 400 IM occurring early in the meet, neither should be too much affected by busy schedules.

In Doha, Italy’s Sara Franceschi was just half a second behind Gorbenko, winning the bronze in 4:37.86 . Of the three, she has the most international experience in the event, having placed 9th in 2021 and 6th in 2023. She has a personal best of 4:35.98 from the Italian National Champions in 2023 but was unable to replicate that time at Worlds. Recently, at the Sette Colli meet in Rome, she was 4:38.77, beating Colbert by close to two seconds, but if her season best is only 4:37.89, the Italian will struggle to make the final unless she attacks the prelims.

Young Blood

Mio Narita. Photo: Jon Reiter

While they don’t have the pedigree of McIntosh and Grimes, Japan’s Mio Narita and Hungary’s Vivien Jackl, aged 17 and 15, will look to make a splash on the international level. Narita, the elder of the two, won the 400 IM at both the 2022  Junior Pan-Pacs (4:36.79) and at Junior Worlds in 4:37.48.

Last summer, in front of a home crowd, she qualified for the final in 3rd in a time of 4:38.05 but struggled in the final, finishing in a time of 4:42.14. In the lead-up to these games, Narita placed 3rd at the Asian Games, in a time of 4:38.77, behind Yu Yiting and Ageha Tanigawa. Yu, who swims for China, is not entered in the event, and while Tanigawa got the better of Narita in Hangzhou, Narita got the edge in Toyko at their Olympic Trials back in March. Narita’s time of 4:35.40 stands as a new PB and the 7th fastest performance this season, while Tanigawa’s 4:35.60 also clocks in as a new PB and the 10th fastest this season.

The youngest swimmer in this field is Jackl. At just 15, she already has a cadre of accolades to her name. She won her first medal at 13, winning bronze at the 2022 European Juniors. In 2023, she upgraded to gold and repeated the feat again at the 2024 edition. At the senior level, she claimed silver in the event at the 2024 Europeans in a time of 4:38.96, behind only Gorbenko, while also swimming her way to the gold medal in the 1500.

While these times are impressive, they pale in comparison to the 4:34.98 she swam at the Hungarian Championships this past April and rank her currently 6th in the world.

The Verdict

It’s a small field and, therefore, a smaller preview, but that doesn’t mean it will not be eventful. McIntosh could win this event while swimming at 90% and it will be likely her against the clock. With the event occurring earlier in the week, she may not push the race all-out and it would not be surprising to see her fall short of the World Record.

Kaylee McKeown did not enter the event despite having a PB and the #2 time in the world this season of 4:28.22, and therefore, silver likely falls to Grimes, who occupied the same position in 2022 and 2023. Grimes’ PB is not that much ahead of Forrester but has proven herself more in the event and has looked the better of the two this season. Forrester is a massive question mark. Was her bronze last summer a blimp and she’s come back down to earth, or was Trials just a misstep? Forrester, of the entire field, has the most volatility; she could compete with Grimes for the silver, or she could miss the final altogether. While the former seems more likely than the later, others behind her have had better seasons so far and likely will jump ahead of her.

The fight for bronze will be tough, but despite middling results at Trials, Weyant looks poised to earn a second trip to the Olympic Podium ahead of Colbert and Gorbenko. Gorkenko swam at the European Championships and had a busy and successful run of PBs at the Mare Nostrum, but with so much racing, it’ll be interesting to see if she can maintain that form and earn her first Olympic medal. The same can be said of Jackl, who tackled the Hungarian Championships, Euros, and Junior Euros all this spring and summer. With so many meets, can she put together a strong performance and join the ranks of teen phenoms in this event, or will all the racing and pressure of the Olympics get to her?

I’ve mentioned it before, mainly in relay previews, but with a small starting field and with a wide disparity of time between the leader and the pack, McIntosh will cruise in the prelims, and a few others may be able to shut it down over the last few meters, but all of them should be wary of resting too much in the morning. With no semis and on the outside looking, any swimmer ranked 9th down, and even those in the 5th to 8th range, might push the pace in the morning to ensure a spot in the final. It only took 4:39.4 to make the finals in Fukuoka and 4:37.37 at the last Olympics. And with 14 entrants under that Tokyo mark, then any number of swimmers could make the final and our predictions from 6th to 8th are certainly not locks, nor for that matter are the swimmers ranked2-5, but those four swimmers have the pedigree and racing experience to be able to make the final.

However it works out, what is known is that there will be at least two new Olympic medalists in the event. With such a young crop of talent, hopefully, they can push each other and the event to new heights.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Ella Jansen (Can) – The Tennessee commit had a rough Canadian Trials, missing out on the finals of the 400 free, and while she placed 2nd in this event, her time of 4:38.88 was outside of the OQT of 4:38.53. Despite this, Jansen was still named to the team as she had achieved the OQT at Junior Worlds. The 18-year-old’s entry time of 4:37.35 ranks her just 14th out of the 16 competitors in the field, but should she bounce back from her poor Trials performance, she could final.